Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Harry]

Just witnessed the first strike over NW France...first of many we can hope

Edited June 4, 2015 by Harry

[Paul]

The really warm / humid air isn't due just yet..

 

Now:

 

Early hours

 

Edit - lol beaten to it by Supa - same story slightly different charts

[Daniel*]

EW has been tweeting: Latest thinking is from around 3AM onwards and likely to be medium-level based storms, so plenty of lightning *if* they occur.

[Harry]

EW has been tweeting: Latest thinking is from around 3AM onwards and likely to be medium-level based storms, so plenty of lightning *if* they occur.

Who is EW?

[Biggin]

Must be coming down with something?

Hope not

 

 

Humidity / plume arriving early hours according to this http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-06-05

Dont know how reliable tho.

 

Damn just seen all your posts Paul n Super lol. Better late than never i spose.

Edited June 4, 2015 by Biggin

[StormChaseUK]

Happily installed in my Limousin home with a nice beer in hand and a pasta meal waiting. A beautiful flight out here, some hint that there is something approaching from the Bay of Biscay direction and some nice convective clouds. Into Limoges, some really developing CBs with great updraft cloud features. No activity though, but it is incredibly warm and humid. It's still 26c here - all windows open with shutters closed as there are swarms of midges trying to get me.

Great enjoy the night ahead was much warmer here in the NW than expected today.

[Southern Storm]

seams to be more humid now in the southwest .. just been to the lakes and back ..and the air has that sticky feel to it ..

After reading your post i popped outside, I can confirm that it feels much more humid than before.

 

but i don't feel anything will happen tonight, i have my camera at the ready just in case anything does though!

[Gordon Webb]

wonder If I'm in for a battering or a slight skirmish personally think It's borderline but I'm hoping for the latter (before any possible griping not that I believe anybody would an anti storm post was well overdue)

[Mapantz]

Under 11°C uppers.

Temp of 15.7°C

Humidity at 76%

Dewpoint of 11.5°C

It feels pretty fresh here, but that is because we're not under the influence of the warmer airmass yet.

Just seen Paul and Supacell's posts after I made this. Whoops!

Edited June 4, 2015 by Mapantz

[Spikecollie]

Great enjoy the night ahead was much warmer here in the NW than expected today.

I got a nice window seat view over the Brest coast - the channel was totally clear apart from a few mid level clouds. There was some evidence of convection in the distance. I'm not expert enough to know what, but there is something inhibiting full convection - the CBs are/were out there but they've done nothing. Frim my experience of our area here, this is a classic thunderstorm feeling evening but it's just not happening (yet?). North east of me was highly progged for storms and always gets the strongest - we watch from the garden when we have nothing (we're in a valley so our storms are spectacular but need very specific conditions).

[Gordon Webb]

Hope not

 

 

Humidity / plume arriving early hours according to this http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-06-05

Dont know how reliable tho.

 

Damn just seen all your posts Paul n Super lol. Better late than never i spose.

 

looks like im in the isolated catergory , those in East Anglia must be hoping things go there way tomorrow

[Spikecollie]

Oooh! One strike now on blitzortung over N. France. Seems there was a little outbreak barely south of me (Dordogne area) earlier. More progressing from Biscay.

Edited June 4, 2015 by Spikecollie

[Gordon Webb]

The really warm / humid air isn't due just yet..

 

Now:

h1.png

 

Early hours

h2.png

 

Edit - lol beaten to it by Supa - same story slightly different charts

 

 

doesn't wait in the SW long and not sure it changes much for me but boy in the SE humidity due to go thorugh the roof , personally think it's warm enough already glad this is brief as my local funfair is here and dodging lightning while eating burgers is not on my todo list

Edited June 4, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Biggin]

looks like im in the isolated catergory , those in East Anglia must be hoping things go there way tomorrow

Yep dont often see severe mentioned.

[Spikecollie]

doesn't wait in the SW long and not sure it changes much for me but boy in the SE humidity due to go thorugh the roof , personally think it's warm enough already glad this is brief as my local funfair is here and dodging lightning while eating burgers is not on my todo list

We have had many BBQs in the garden here in Limousin eating burgers and watching lightning - we've also run for cover pretty fast too! I remember the night before the big October storm of 2013 having a bonfire and eating outside. As usual, I was out until all hours but came running in after a CG strike directly on the hill opposite our house. Despite the torrents, the bonfire was still able to be rekindled the next day (I think that was our record - a four day bonfire - but we had a lot of woodworm infested stuff to get rid of. Sorry - I'm very into just being in the elements...

[Harry]

Ha! I'm in the convective weather UK severe zone by about a mile

Mid level cloud increasing further here...difficult to classify in the twilight but a couple of bumps seem to be there

[Thunderbolt_]

What do people think of a 62% risk in Manchester between 05:00 and 07:00? I think it's a tad optimistic to be perfectly honest. I think we're just a bit too far north and west.

[Mokidugway]

What do people think of a 62% risk in Manchester between 05:00 and 07:00? I think it's a tad optimistic to be perfectly honest. I think we're just a bit too far north and west.

tbh Scott we might as well be in Greenland ..

[Gordon Webb]

What do people think of a 62% risk in Manchester between 05:00 and 07:00? I think it's a tad optimistic to be perfectly honest. I think we're just a bit too far north and west.

 

62% too high

[Convective]

What do people think of a 62% risk in Manchester between 05:00 and 07:00? I think it's a tad optimistic to be perfectly honest. I think we're just a bit too far north and west.

 

 

tbh Scott we might as well be in Greenland ..

 

I think anywhere as far north as Newcastle is in with a shot overnight.

[A.J]

warmer moister air encroaching.....it feels a lot muggier and warmer than an hour ago......in fact, you can actually smell the difference...the air here now has that earthy, musty fragrance......thicker cloud here, but just about impossible to tell whether it's stratoform or Ac Cas due to lack of light

[Mokidugway]

I think anywhere as far north as Newcastle is in with a shot overnight.

I like the optimism ..

[Gordon Webb]

I think anywhere as far north as Newcastle is in with a shot overnight.

 

that might be true on that side of the country but not on the western side me I'm hoping I'm too far west

 

got fingers toes and everything else I can cross crossed

Edited June 4, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Thunderbolt_]

I think anywhere as far north as Newcastle is in with a shot overnight.

 

On the East Coast yes, but I highly doubt that Carlisle (similar latitude to Newcastle) is really going to get anything. Obviously never say never, but it is highly unlikely.

[Convective]

I like the optimism ..

 

Charts suggest that its certainly not out the question. As the 18Z rolls out too, it has shown consistently for the last few runs that anywhere as far north as Newcastle definitely has a shot at thunderstorms overnight.