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Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

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Hi there everyone,

Look I don't normally post as I'm an amateur who is really trying to learn, however I do read most posts each day and try my best.

But please can anyone help?

I have a Down Syndrome son who gets very nervous and anxious with any extreme weather, ( hence why im trying to learn myself), Anyway really need someone's help. My wife and I are trying to determine whether our area,

(just west of High Wycombe in Bucks) will have any storms over night or tomorrow?

Its just we can try to prepare him with in advance with our support. Thank you so much anyone who can help us.

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Thanks Robt, that Cambourne diagram shows a tightly capped situation with 2 inversions and a lot of dry intrusions coming in turn with moist air in the upper levels, that helps explain the wild looking skies, interesting though: no CAPE at all..

 

 

Regards

 

Ralph

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Hi there everyone,

Look I don't normally post as I'm an amateur who is really trying to learn, however I do read most posts each day and try my best.

But please can anyone help?

I have a Down Syndrome son who gets very nervous and anxious with any extreme weather, ( hence why im trying to learn myself), Anyway really need someone's help. My wife and I are trying to determine whether our area,

(just west of High Wycombe in Bucks) will have any storms over night or tomorrow?

Its just we can try to prepare him with in advance with our support. Thank you so much anyone who can help us.

Its not looking likely that you will have much in the way of storms tomorrow, however there may be some thunder and lightning in the very early hours of the morning. All these storms seem to want to build from the central counties and then go further east so it all depends how far west they start.

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Thanks Robt, that Cambourne diagram shows a tightly capped situation with 2 inversions and a lot of dry intrusions coming in turn with moist air in the upper levels, that helps explain the wild looking skies, interesting though: no CAPE at all..

 

 

Regards

 

Ralph

It'll be interesting to see what the later soundings show up...

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Hi there everyone,

Look I don't normally post as I'm an amateur who is really trying to learn, however I do read most posts each day and try my best.

But please can anyone help?

I have a Down Syndrome son who gets very nervous and anxious with any extreme weather, ( hence why im trying to learn myself), Anyway really need someone's help. My wife and I are trying to determine whether our area,

(just west of High Wycombe in Bucks) will have any storms over night or tomorrow?

Its just we can try to prepare him with in advance with our support. Thank you so much anyone who can help.

 

 

Hi, I am not to sure myself, looking at the BBC forecast. But the advice I would give is to watch the weather radar (live, updated every 15 mins or 5 mins if you pay) http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=  .    

 

The more intense bursts of rain would be more prone to Thunder/Lightning than less heavy bits. Also I would go on lightning maps (http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime ), which is a good realtime Lightning detector. Although it doesn't record every strike, it is a good indication of where the storms are going. 

 

Both those are more accurate than a BBC forecast. 

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@ Robt: Yes, indeed, the 00z soundings are going to to prove very valuable for nowcast should they take place. Is Cambourne the only place which sent up a weather balloon in the whole of the UK today?

 

anyway, at the moment downstairs looks completely decoupled from upstairs in the atmosphere if I may phrase it like this..

 

@ Wolfgang: You are almost too far out west by the looks of it, but as Rain123 said: watch the radar and this forum..

 

Regards 

 

Ralph

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Hi there everyone,

Look I don't normally post as I'm an amateur who is really trying to learn, however I do read most posts each day and try my best.

But please can anyone help?

I have a Down Syndrome son who gets very nervous and anxious with any extreme weather, ( hence why im trying to learn myself), Anyway really need someone's help. My wife and I are trying to determine whether our area,

(just west of High Wycombe in Bucks) will have any storms over night or tomorrow?

Its just we can try to prepare him with in advance with our support. Thank you so much anyone who can help us.

Hi Wolfgang Drill, nobody unfortunately can say with any real certainty. I would suggest you are probably in a lower risk area than further east, however there is nevertheless a risk.

Helen Willetts just suggested that storms could rumble on through tomorrow evening, clearing by midnight...??? Confused...I was anticipating action to have cleared by around 15z...what are your thoughts about any cold front action? I'm sceptical!

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A blanket of stratoform clouds is arriving from the west here. It looks ominous, but most likely harmless.

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Hi there everyone,

Look I don't normally post as I'm an amateur who is really trying to learn, however I do read most posts each day and try my best.

But please can anyone help?

I have a Down Syndrome son who gets very nervous and anxious with any extreme weather, ( hence why im trying to learn myself), Anyway really need someone's help. My wife and I are trying to determine whether our area,

(just west of High Wycombe in Bucks) will have any storms over night or tomorrow?

Its just we can try to prepare him with in advance with our support. Thank you so much anyone who can help us.

 

Hello, nobody knows for sure with any accuracy, so perhaps best to 'prepare' just in case :)

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Fantastic evening here just North of Bristol. Blue skies, warm but it doesn't feel humid to me at all.

Shame that we are likely to miss out tonight...but here's hoping for more chances as we get into summer proper ;)

Have fun tonight whoever is lucky enough to see something.

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@ Robt: Yes, indeed, the 00z soundings are going to to prove very valuable for nowcast should they take place. Is Cambourne the only place which sent up a weather balloon in the whole of the UK today?

Thats the only one showing on the University of Wyoming site..

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I'm glad you do...charts just seem fairly keen to dodge us - North Sea 50 miles from Lowestoft looks awesome, lol

 

ok I take back what I said

 

just come back from a 6 mile club run - and didn't feel humid out at all - in fact felt quite fresh :(

 

not looking too stormy atmosphere wise either

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IC Strike showing on the Cherbourg peninsula :D

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Fantastic evening here just North of Bristol. Blue skies, warm but it doesn't feel humid to me at all.

Shame that we are likely to miss out tonight...but here's hoping for more chances as we get into summer proper ;)

Have fun tonight whoever is lucky enough to see something.

Don't worry, no sign of a humidity boost here yet either.

I was always anticipating notable humidity jump after midnight

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Hi there everyone,

Look I don't normally post as I'm an amateur who is really trying to learn, however I do read most posts each day and try my best.

But please can anyone help?

I have a Down Syndrome son who gets very nervous and anxious with any extreme weather, ( hence why im trying to learn myself), Anyway really need someone's help. My wife and I are trying to determine whether our area,

(just west of High Wycombe in Bucks) will have any storms over night or tomorrow?

Its just we can try to prepare him with in advance with our support. Thank you so much anyone who can help us.

One of the things that helped me as a child was gloves and soft music playing through over ear headphones, I used to be terrified and even to this day wearing gloves keeps me calm in stressful situations.

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Great shot there Scott! Not much to speak of here.

post-12319-0-01903400-1433448935_thumb.j

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IC Strike showing on the Cherbourg peninsula :D

On what site is showing that, lightning maps isnt showing it

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Great shot there Scott! Not much to speak of here.

 

Thanks, PM. :)

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@ Robt: Went to that site and indeed, seems that Cambourne was the only place which sent up a balloon today 12z, despite of todays necessity to monitor things more closely with the plume approaching. Quite sad that a civilized and densely populated country like the UK dont invest more into such a valuable method to nowcast. Sending up a weather balloon from different locations to gain realtime data would tell us a great deal more than 1000 model runs on the computer methinks :closedeyes:

 

Regards

 

Ralph

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Hoping Mother Nature would be kind enough to deliver me another one of these beautiful little things tomorrow, an exact carbon copy would be splendid. My request is probably a bit too far fetched for her though as she hasn't played ball in recent years! 

 

Nothing to report from Worthing yet, other than a few spiky cirrus. 

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Surely Watnall and Herstmonceux report every day?

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