Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Azazel]

gonna give this one a miss unfortunately. No way I stay up all night and go to work in the morning:(

 

I will however set my gopro up in the garden overnight and film a timelapse. Views arent great but hey, better than nothing

[STORMGUY]

had some spots of rain about 6pm andyboy else locall have any.

[BlueHedgehog074]

The NetWx Model 12z run is suggesting that elevated thunderstorms will move NNE during te early hours of Friday morning, with most of Central and Southern England having a good chance of seeing something.

 

Precip.png

 

The mid-level CAPE, Theta-E and lapse rate values are implying that there will be quite a lot of instability tonight.

 

MLCAPE.png THETA.png LAPSE.png

Does look as though there is chance of the Midlands storm shield getting stamped-out early tomorrow morning.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

have you got a link Surrey

Of phone apologies

[Generalelectrix]

Looking at all the pics of the skies, the remind me of the "loaded gun Sky", tightly capped environment. Have been trying to get hold of some balloon soundings, Herstmonceux for example, but no luck. Can somebody in the forum who has better access post one if possible? Would be a valuable nowcasting tool at the moment..

 

Regards

 

Ralph

[Mapantz]

No lightning in that lot though, may be it will wake up a bit soon.

Hardly any rain reaching the ground either. I've checked about 20 independent stations and they've received trace amount s.

[Harry]

I have not detected a jump in humidity yet. I think people are getting a little bit excitable.

We shouldn't be anticipating the arrival/development of anything of particular interest until well after dark so there is little point in looking for stuff yet.

The gunpowder is on its way - you'll know it when it arrives - you'll start to sweat and there'll be even more insects than there are irritating me right now lol

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I have not detected a jump in humidity yet. I think people are getting a little bit excitable.

We shouldn't be anticipating the arrival/development of anything of particular interest until well after dark so there is little point in looking for stuff yet.

The gunpowder is on its way - you'll know it when it arrives - you'll start to sweat and there'll be even more insects than there are irritating me right now lol

Im excited cause of the beer "hiccup"

[Buckster]

looking forward to some storms in Essex tonight

 

pity I've running club first ! - going to be hard-work - not great in heat/humidity

[Convective]

What's wonderful about Spanish Plumes?

Anything can happen anywhere! Deep mid level convection here and I am under nothing on charts.

This was taken 25 minutes ago. It's fairly scattered in nature but clouds are growing massive!

[ztam]

Of phone apologies

Screenshot_2015-06-04-19-08-26.png

Thats ok i found it now  

[Buckster]

have a feeling the S-East will do well from this

 

expecting one more slight shunt east

[Harry]

have a feeling the S-East will do well from this

 

expecting one more slight shunt east

I'm glad you do...charts just seem fairly keen to dodge us - North Sea 50 miles from Lowestoft looks awesome, lol

[Convective]

And another. Shouldn't be getting excited but with skies like this it's hard not to!

Cloud moving through really quick. Can see it convecting upwards too.

[Mapantz]

Satellite still looks good, although i can understand why some of the charts have been showing a linear formation. The showers coming out of Portugal and Spain look like they're being funneled.

Who knows what'll happen after midnight? A pumpkin may even turn up..

Edited June 4, 2015 by Mapantz

[Noahjoe]

I don't know if it's been mentioned the BBC video forecast from this evening showing a completely different forecast to what their rainfall model on their website has been...must have been a last minute update! Even a possibility of severe thunderstorms mentioned and thunder and lightning WIDESPREAD in the south east?? I must be dreaming...

[alexisj9]

I don't know if it's been mentioned the BBC video forecast from this evening showing a completely different forecast to what their rainfall model on their website has been...must have been a last minute update! Even a possibility of severe thunderstorms mentioned and thunder and lightning WIDESPREAD in the south east?? I must be dreaming...

Which forecast, I'll watch it on line.

 

Found the one for the SE, must say it looks wet.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast-video/21416752

Edited June 4, 2015 by alexisj9

[StormChaseUK]

The cloud in NW France is nothing to be concerned about yet, I am right under it, there are a few spots of tropical like rain but it's mostly light showers spawned off because of the afternoon heat, the real stability will come overnight when the airmass from the west pushes east.

[robt]

Looking at all the pics of the skies, the remind me of the "loaded gun Sky", tightly capped environment. Have been trying to get hold of some balloon soundings, Herstmonceux for example, but no luck. Can somebody in the forum who has better access post one if possible? Would be a valuable nowcasting tool at the moment..

 

Regards

 

Ralph

12Z from Brest, France, as well as Camborne..

 

 

[Guenhwyvar]

English Channel this evening

[Harry]

English Channel this evening

Stunning isn't it...gorgeous here too!

[Weather-history]

Altocumulus castellanus filled skies. Thunderiest looking sky of the year.

[Arnie Pie]

quick sunspot check...looks pretty clear

Edited June 4, 2015 by Arnie Pie

[jamesbhx]

Heathrow and Gatwick forecasts both indicating a 30% chance of a thunderstorm between 4 and 5am onwards. Anything that does develop is likely to be elevated based on the information at the moment.

[StormChaseUK]

Humid here, spots of rain falling from this lovely sky