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Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

yep, there's a weak warm front (pushing up over southern counties) that has caused the marginal instability.....FAX chart output show's this front straddling southern counties....This front will lift up north/north eastwards, and it's behind this front where the plume lies......have a look at brickfielder's excellent post a couple of pages back

Incredible post, just shows that the trough is out west over Cornwall showing that anywhere east of that is in the warmer and more unstable air. I think from now on it is radar watching.

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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
Posted (edited)

Liking the skies over Brum atm......Will be streaming live tonight/tomorrow morning

post-12214-0-03384200-1433435615_thumb.p

Disturbed skies

post-12214-0-97451600-1433438134_thumb.p

Edited by Arnie Pie
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Rain123 Apprentice

Rain123

Posted
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Spells or thunderstorms.
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
Posted

Ac Cas normally comes in in the morning in great amounts and then dissapears several hours before storms move in.

Ooh, cheers William, I didn't know that.

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

I think if it wasn't for some of the Eastwards shifts the models have made with regards to plume and storm possibilities, then a fair number of the UK storm fans could have been seeing the Thunder-pocalypse tomorrow.

(Still, as some others say, this is going to be one of those now-casting events where radars and windows are used to spot any storms that could try to sneak past us).

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted

your tempting fate with that barbie!

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DanN Enthusiast

DanN

Posted
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms.
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
Posted (edited)

Couple of charts from some of the other WRF-ARW convection allowing models... The 3km ripWRF output for the overnight hours appears to destabilise the edge of the plume later this evening with elevated convection moving north-east from the Midlands.

 

post-9921-0-77533700-1433436164_thumb.pn post-9921-0-65915500-1433436260_thumb.pn

 

Decent signal on the max integrated column graupel product - suggestive of hail (n.b max possible value)

 

post-9921-0-32995700-1433436677_thumb.pn

 

The ManUniCast 4km WRF also looks quite similar with its simulated reflectivity, though both models are initiated from the GFS (different physics schemes however) - if thats wrong, well, these may well be too!

 

post-9921-0-52302000-1433437020_thumb.pn

Edited by DanN
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Mesoscale Rising Star

Mesoscale

Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
Posted

Even if storms dont happen.. I'll be merry later

attachicon.gifSnapchat--3438272887899113537.jpg

Me to mate I have some Wray & Nephew Jamaican Rum, i have a feeling im going to need it. haha.

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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted (edited)

It feels a lot more muggy and humid out there now and the sky is starting to look a lot more unsettled. The temperature has also risen to a high of 22C, which is higher than the 19C high that was predicted for today.

 

Looking good so far. :)

Edited by Thunderbolt_
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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted

Baking afternoon here in Brittany, now clouding over from the South, South West.  

 

Expecting heavy showers or storms to fire off between now and morning.

post-3631-0-46306200-1433438638_thumb.jp

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

It feels a lot more muggy and humid out there now and the sky is starting to look a lot more unsettled. The temperature has also risen to a high of 22C, which is higher than the 19C high that was predicted for today.

 

Looking good so far. :)

 

It must me down to your location up there Scott, it's fresh as a daisy down here. 60% humidity with a nice breeze .. lol

Edited by Mapantz
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Mesoscale Rising Star

Mesoscale

Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
Posted (edited)

They just said Severe Thunderstorms on the BBC weather but the North sea lights up like a Christmas tree during the day tomorrow.

Edited by Mesoscale
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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted

Or wishful thinking because last Manchester Airport METAR says 43% humidity and a dew point of 7C

 

43% humidity, really? I'm sure it feels higher than that. It might just be my body trying to trick me then. :D

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted

43% humidity, really? I'm sure it feels higher than that. It might just be my body trying to trick me then. :D

The sky though looks inconsistent with the readings to me. It looks a chaotic thundery type of sky but it doesn't feel muggy to me.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

East Midlands Airport TAF going for thunderstorms and light rain tonight. I was going to head SE towards London and Home Counties but the latest forecasts are making me think I should remain around the E Mids during the early hours (maybe Leicestershire/Lincolnshire) before then heading off to Norfolk and the east coast tomorrow morning.

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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted

The sky though looks inconsistent with the readings to me. It looks a chaotic thundery type of sky but it doesn't feel muggy to me.

 

Well at least, if anything, we can agree on the sky looking quite thundery/disturbed. :)

 

post-21671-0-29379700-1433439721_thumb.j

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

East Midlands Airport TAF going for thunderstorms and light rain tonight. I was going to head SE towards London and Home Counties but the latest forecasts are making me think I should remain around the E Mids during the early hours (maybe Leicestershire/Lincolnshire) before then heading off to Norfolk and the east coast tomorrow morning.

i think you should stay where you are mate especially for tonight action cos that looks mainly a midland event but you probably will have to head a bit further east for the second batch of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon!!action should hopefully start from midnight for us!!
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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted (edited)

The NetWx Model 12z run is suggesting that elevated thunderstorms will move on shore at around midnight and will gradually progress NNE during the early hours of Friday morning, with most of Central and Southern England having a good chance of seeing something.

 

post-21671-0-40633800-1433440172_thumb.p

 

The mid-level CAPE, Theta-E and lapse rate values are implying that there will be quite a lot of instability tonight.

 

post-21671-0-89253100-1433440171_thumb.p post-21671-0-87546200-1433440172_thumb.p post-21671-0-91929200-1433440170_thumb.p

Edited by Thunderbolt_
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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted

Anyone seen Latest sat loop check north France out ;)

No lightning in that lot though, may be it will wake up a bit soon.

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