Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Mapantz]

Concerning for the South Wales Valleys with all that discharge it has to go somewhere...

I hope there isn't another Boscastle situation?!

[boogercj]

Yeah, looks like Western Cornwall might be about to see some action. Meanwhile, the rest of Europe is lit up like a Christmas Tree! I'm holding a slither of hope that we might just see something down in Devon, for a change, maybe overnight tonight into tomorrow. 

 

Time to start scanning the radar and the webcams...

[Biggin]

is it my eyes?? the low seems to be chucking it even further westwards than predicted. Is the centre of the low still heading NEish ??

Edited June 11, 2015 by Biggin

[Chris K]

Concerning for the South Wales Valleys with all that discharge it has to go somewhere...

 

Yes, it depends on the development of convective rainfall. Like you say any valleys could see flash flooding if heavy rainfall is prolonged. I would have thought the Met Office would release an amber warning though if the likelyhood of this increases?

[Lauren]

So what looked like a direct SE hit has now veered West. And this is why I try to have a que sera attitude to the models. The obsessing prematurely aged me, I'm sure.

[Ben Sainsbury]

That storm by Nantes really seems to be kicking off! Huge rainfall rates and 30 strikes a minute!

[Karl83]

Hey guys,fairly new to this,after many years of following threads etc I decided to sign up a few months back,admitidly I don't post often,but I do enjoy reading the threads and posts from members... just wondering what the chances of a storm are in my area tomorrow day time as my Nan has found me a few jobs to do in her garden,mowing the lawns,trimming hedges etc, and would like to get as much done before any storms break out as I'd very much want to be able to watch and enjoy... also,if these do occur,is there a chance power could get knocked off as my grandad is on permanent oxygen due to having copd,he worries whenever storms are forecast as he has to go ten minutes or so without oxygen whilst changing to one of his portable oxygen tanks from the machine, would it be worth me preparing for a quick change over, just in case?

Cheers guys!!

Get it done today while the weather is sweet!

[Cheshire Freeze]

So what looked like a direct SE hit has now veered West. And this is why I try to have a que sera attitude to the models. The obsessing prematurely aged me, I'm sure.

 

Can't see anything of interest in the outlook either. For as long as that damned azores high keeps trying to nose in from the SW there will be nowt of interest storm wise. It's neither here nor there. Grim....and the wait goes on.

 

It's going to be like that spell a few years back isn't it...2010? 2011? where we just had warm settled weather from June through to early-mid July with little day to day variation. Had to grin and bare that one!

Edited June 11, 2015 by CreweCold

[Chris K]

is it my eyes?? the low seems to be chucking it even further westwards than predicted. Is the centre of the low still heading NEish ??

 

I can only assume you are looking at the centre which is actually due to keep shifting W/SW until later, with another forming and moving out of France into Southern England tomorrow.

[Hector the Convector]

Calm before the storm - cloudy here in North France, no activity at all through France at the moment but the sunshine is breaking through.

 

Could be a major day

Nice little cell moving into South Brittany now...hope you see a good storm there today!

[Costa Del Fal]

Can't see anything of interest in the outlook either. For as long as that damned azores high keeps trying to nose in from the SW there will be nowt of interest storm wise. It's neither here nor there. Grim....and the wait goes on.

Plenty of interest for us down here in the next day or so though. Maybe the Azores High has helped here somewhat by keeping the Low where it is?

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

That storm by Nantes really seems to be kicking off! Huge rainfall rates and 30 strikes a minute!

 

 

Looks like it'll be Christmas before it even gets to the Channel 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Looks like it'll be Christmas before it even gets to the Channel 

You know it has moved like 15 miles in the last hour!

[Gary Alan Cowee]

http://www.labaule.com/webcams/direct/3 St Nazaire webcam

[StormChaseUK]

Nice little cell moving into South Brittany now...hope you see a good storm there today!

Camera is all packed,  current temp 28C with humidity at 80% sun is shining but difficult to walk for long outside, the heat is very draining.

 

I'm directly North, North East of the Nantes area - looks early stages of an MCS in that location.

[gottolovethisweather]

I've started a new thread to post your favourite local (or not?) viewing spots for storms:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83325-storm-viewing-vantage-points/

 

Further to this posting above from Nick L, I have updated it with a fair few links now and so too have one or two other folk. I trust they will of use as and when the storms do or don't arrive near your own patch.

Edited June 11, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[lassie23]

With a username like Lassie, I wouldn't dare pry into your knowledge of such things, OOPs I'm drifting off topic again. 

 

 

My knowledge of such things is very limited to my local area Ahem.......... I mean, very limited How are you gottolovethisweather , hope you are well?  Over on  theweatheroutlook.com, their current thinking is that scattered thunderstorms will break out tomorrow over southern England and perhaps the SE, but most of the thundery activity and heaviest rainfall will be towards Somerset and Wiltshire rather than London and the SE. Then the rain pushes north with its northern limit probably being Yorkshire. Then it cools down and becomes sunny and settled next week. Although it may still be blowing a gale oop norf.

[StormChaseUK]

Rainfall rate is 150mm + per hour of that Nantes storm, intense activity.

[Nick L]

That one near Nantes could well be supercellular. Although with the coarse radar resolution and the lack of velocity data makes it difficult to tell.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Definitely a situation of now casting on this one. The models should be taken with a pinch of salt even at this range. 17th July last year was a great example of how wrong they were!

[gottolovethisweather]

My knowledge of such things is very limited to my local area Ahem.......... I mean, very limited How are you gottolovethisweather , hope you are well?  Over on  theweatheroutlook.com, their current thinking is that scattered thunderstorms will break out tomorrow over southern England and perhaps the SE, but most of the thundery activity and heaviest rainfall will be towards Somerset and Wiltshire rather than London and the SE. Then the rain pushes north with its northern limit probably being Yorkshire. Then it cools down and becomes sunny and settled next week. Although it may still be blowing a gale oop norf.

 

I'll let you know what I think will happen after the event if that's ok with you.      If the pros cannot be 100 % sure then its's a be patient, go on the best advice us storm lovers have and grab a beer and chill when not driving anywhere in particular situation to my mind. My eyes are on all the updates and are trained to the radars and satellite pictures.

Edited June 11, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Karl83]

Love how the Met Office app has my location down for light rain on Friday - Uninstalled.

[Nimbus Nix]

Good storm that one north of St Nazaire:

 

 

[Mapantz]

Love how the Met Office app has my location down for light rain on Friday - Uninstalled.

It's had me down for dry weather for the past two days.

Edited June 11, 2015 by Mapantz

[StormChaseUK]

Here she comes..

 

Towers sprouting up all around now, ahead of the possible SC