Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Mokidugway]

Might take a drive to Lincoln then ..

[Generalelectrix]

Evening all.

Got a huge constantly flashing storm system moving my way (am currently Lake Constance) from Zurich. Amazing rate of lightning and on radar zoom its beginning to show signature of a MCV

 

 

Courtesy Metradar

 

Here Link to Radar in realtime  http://www.metradar.ch/2009/pc/index.php

 

Amgetting into car for a chase!

 

Cheers

 

Ralph

 

[Gordon Webb]

for any that are not sure what a MCV is (probably not many if any) apart from me

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoscale_convective_vortex

Edited June 7, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Latest synoptic outlook (Thurs/Fri):

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif?0

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?0

 

Not bad. Initial storm development across south Thurs, followed by more storms and mass of rain into Friday associated with the triple point.  Look like they're going with their GM.  

 

Interesting times. Again.

I like the words 'into Friday' suggesting an overnight thing :-)

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Might take a drive to Lincoln then ..

And Sleaford is just down the road, perhaps it can deliver again this year ....https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=8TXE6W7-41Y

[Mapantz]

A thunderstorm is a rare occurrence here, these days, but there is one thing rarer..

The icon for it on a weather app!

[Ben Sainsbury]

Well thankfully ESTOFEX is back for us! So at least we'll have some input for Thursday/Friday

[Harry]

Latest synoptic outlook (Thurs/Fri):

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif?0

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?0

 

Not bad. Initial storm development across south Thurs, followed by more storms and mass of rain into Friday associated with the triple point.  Look like they're going with their GM.  

 

Interesting times. Again. 

 

Looks awfully frontal to me...yuck!

 

That said frontal systems can and have delivered in the past...tends to be far less of the classic storms and more thundery rain...thundery rain which in recent years has sent masses of sparks eastwards over Benelux leaving us under torrential drizzle.

 

Still way too far out at this stage though to pin down the specifics...potential is always welcome in its own right

[Azazel]

will imports actually work though with channel sea temps being low?

I am of course basing this on the fact they were low last week so I can't imagine they are any higher now.

Just remembering how storms died a death last week the moment they went over the water :-(

 

Sea temps have nothing to do with it as storms/imports in a plume situation are often elevated above the boundary layer

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Sea temps have nothing to do with it as storms/imports in a plume situation are often elevated above the boundary layer

Ok thanks for the info. A bit of good news then :-)

Edited June 8, 2015 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Harry]

Ok thanks for the info. A bit of good news then :-)

 

Lack back at the radar of last Friday...numerous storms fired over the Channel and even colder North Sea, so certainly not a problem.

[stainesbloke]

Looks awfully frontal to me...yuck!

 

That said frontal systems can and have delivered in the past...tends to be far less of the classic storms and more thundery rain...thundery rain which in recent years has sent masses of sparks eastwards over Benelux leaving us under torrential drizzle.

 

Still way too far out at this stage though to pin down the specifics...potential is always welcome in its own right

Quite interesting synoptics based on the fax charts, looks frontal but some very warm air mixed up which could well spark off something. If the low could move a couple of hundred miles NW, decent chances for much of England. I'd be quite happy just to see some warm, heavy and soaking rain to be honest, the ground here needs it!

[toggerob]

Small chance of something thundery moving east to west across the Pennines later today, showers are already starting to bubble up.

[Panayiotis]

Satellite bubbling away, convective potential looking good today... Slight CAPE along with some shear and high lapse rates should help kick some things off later, Im going for the SE/London area to see some action...

EDIT: IMAGES ABOVE OUT OF DATE 

Edited June 8, 2015 by Panayiotis

[NUT]

Unlikely to be any thundery showers up here but got a little shower that has just popped up. Nothing major here today I would expect

[Harry]

Satellite bubbling away, convective potential looking good today... Slight CAPE along with some shear and high lapse rates should help kick some things off later, Im going for the SE/London area to see some action...

 

SE/London area? Not likely...!

[StormChaseUK]

The GFS 06Z is a huge uplift and sigh of relief, the low has been pushed further west, with a plume now in place for late weds/thursday.

[Chris K]

Is weather09 ramping yet?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Not necessarily, no.  Provided the moisture and instability are there, cold front is just one means of forcing mechanism, and woudn't be a hindrance. Ideally, though, we like to see our storms form away from the cold front.  That's where discrete storms grow to full potential, without risk of being dominated by a frontal system.

 

Anyway, having had a glance at all three main outputs, ECM has the ideal output so far in terms of warmth/moisture.  UKMO-GM bouncing around, but still decent.  GFS backtracking toward the euros (well I never!). 

 

Limiting factors, thus far, look to be little forcing aloft and weak shear.  Instability/moisture-wise, though, it's there on current outputs... 

 

Take that as a ramp, if you wish lol.

This is actually looking not too dissimilar to the 28/06/2005 storm setup which gave myself and many others an all night lightning show.

[legritter]

Things looking hopefully good for thursday /friday but areas and intensity of anything thundery we  will i feel have to wait a  few more runs . certainly a good bet for thundery rain but all the elements need to come together ,i,m hoping for some night time fun even if its short lived ,but certainly interesting for us storm starved posters ,will put STellas on ice ,cheers all .

[Mapantz]

This is actually looking not too dissimilar to the 28/06/2005 storm setup which gave myself and many others an all night lightning show.

 

That was the last direct-hit storm(s) i had here, it went on for hours!

I also captured a small bizarre ball of light on my old night vision camcorder (I didn't see it while i was filming, only on playback) It shoots passed me at 45 degrees, up over my house, in a straight line and vanished- in less than a second, and then several seconds later, a flash of lightning. I may still have the video, i'll have a look later.

[Chris.R]

This is actually looking not too dissimilar to the 28/06/2005 storm setup which gave myself and many others an all night lightning show.

Now that night I remember well. One of the most active storms of the decade here, not lasting all night here of course but very exciting. I was only 10, But already into the weather and storms.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

 

 

 

 

Bit of a mouth watering chart 

[alexisj9]

This is actually looking not too dissimilar to the 28/06/2005 storm setup which gave myself and many others an all night lightning show.

Along with lot's of flooding in places. Which we could do without to be honest.

[alexisj9]

That was the last direct-hit storm(s) i had here, it went on for hours!

I also captured a small bizarre ball of light on my old night vision camcorder (I didn't see it while i was filming, only on playback) It shoots passed me at 45 degrees, up over my house, in a straight line and vanished- in less than a second, and then several seconds later, a flash of lightning. I may still have the video, i'll have a look later.

Sounds like ball lightning, may be.