Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[UKSupercell]

So what is the trigger for these storms? Even France is quiet right now.

Typical I could pick any other hobby avaliable in England yet I am drawn to the two things that allude us the most, Snow and Thunderstorms. haha

 

Ha, same here. Snow and thunderstorms are what interest me most about the weather.

Edited June 4, 2015 by UKSupercell

[Noahjoe]

So what is the trigger for these storms? Even France is quiet right now.

Typical I could pick any other hobby avaliable in England yet I am drawn to the two things that elude us the most, Snow and Thunderstorms. haha

I was wondering as well what the trigger was since there the atmosphere over Northern France is more unstable than here?

[ChezWeather]

So what is the trigger for these storms? Even France is quiet right now.

Typical I could pick any other hobby avaliable in England yet I am drawn to the two things that elude us the most, Snow and Thunderstorms. haha

Im the same mate, but then again, thats all part of the fun for me, if they were more common, the anticipation would be less! 

[Convective]

Through till 0600 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

I think thats our buddy in the N BoB,at least there is something to chat about,lets see what comes of it,i would like to see things firing up a bit more west of that but i am pulling at staws here

 

i need to get my head down but i cannot help it,i am like a big kid lol,it's a good job i am of afters but still could be a sleepy one.

Through till 0600 

 

Liking the look of that,if i don't say so myself

[Kain]

Now thats more like it!

 

 

Through till 0600 

 

[A.J]

very early days folks....the plume is just showing signs of destabilizing in the mid-levels with elevated convection over Brest and now firing near the Channel Islands which is pretty much on schedule......all this talk of 'bust'..a tad premature!

[Convective]

very early days folks....the plume is just showing signs of destabilizing in the mid-levels with elevated convection over Brest and now firing near the Channel Islands which is pretty much on schedule......all this talk of 'bust'..a tad premature!

 

And there we have it, first couple of sferics detected just southwest of Jersey! Here we go!

[Panayiotis]

Storms moving out of Spain making good in roads towards the UK...this is how I'm looking at things in terms of potential>

Scenario1:

These showers move NE towards the UK, once they hit the UK they hit the destabilized kicking off elevated storms...ETA:4am 

 

Scenario 2:

Destabilization over the UK over the next hour so in association with warmer air, linked in this small low pressure system over the Channel Islands, helps kick off elevated storms, moving NE.

 

 

Places E of Isle of Wight at most risk tonight... I think if anything does happen, we will see signs of it soon for Scenario.2), or otherwise later on for Scenario.1) so wait patiently peeps!

Edited June 4, 2015 by Panayiotis

[Allseasons-Si]

Meanwhile,across the pond(usa)

 

courtesy of lakeFX.net

 

https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783747

 

 

 

[Gordon Webb]

Storms moving out of Spain making good in roads towards the UK...this is how I'm looking at things in terms of potential>

Scenario1:

These showers move NE towards the UK, once they hit the UK they hit the destabilized kicking off elevated storms...ETA:4am 

 

Scenario 2:

Destabilization over the UK over the next hour so in association with warmer air, linked in this small low pressure system over the Channel Islands, helps kick off elevated storms, moving NE.

 

 

Places E of Isle of Wight at most risk tonight... I think if anything does happen it will be in a few hours, so wait patiently peeps!

 

E of isle of wight suits me fine especially if they move NE

[Mesoscale]

very early days folks....the plume is just showing signs of destabilizing in the mid-levels with elevated convection over Brest and now firing near the Channel Islands which is pretty much on schedule......all this talk of 'bust'..a tad premature!

Sorry that was my fault... haha

[A.J]

Sorry that was my fault... haha

it was your cunning plan...reverse psychology.....it worked! 

[Convective]

I'm going to say that precipitation between Jersey and Alderney is one to watch. Looks ripe to explode into life..

 

That cell just off the Brest peninsula is doing well. 31 sferics recorded in the last 10 minutes.

Edited June 5, 2015 by Convective

[alexisj9]

Meanwhile,across the pond(usa)

 

courtesy of lakeFX.net

 

https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783747

 

tornado3.png

I watched it on Daniel Shaws stream this is the pic he put on twitter. https://twitter.com/DanielShawAU/status/606608261240856577/photo/1

 

Just had a light shower here, from that stuff that's dying of further east in the channel just hitting east kent.

Edited June 4, 2015 by alexisj9

[A.J]

ok, for the steering of these showers/storms, have a look at the 500hpa & 300hpa wind flow on the GFS or NMM (comes out in about 10 mins) or for those with NW Extra radar, choose the v4 version and use the windflow overlays.....storms firing over Brest will track across the channel to affect Dorset/Hants and into parts of Wilts/Surrey & West Sussex....as the plume is destabilizing, expect more convection to fire more readily over the next hour or two

 

 

edit.....one electrified cell over Brest is already pretty active

[Thunderbolt_]

ok, for the steering of these showers/storms, have a look at the 500hpa & 300hpa wind flow on the GFS or NMM (comes out in about 10 mins) or for those with NW Extra radar, choose the v4 version and use the windflow overlays.....storms firing over Brest will track across the channel to affect Dorset/Hants and into parts of Wilts/Surrey & West Sussex....as the plume is destabilizing, expect more convection to fire more readily over the next hour or two

 

 

edit.....one electrified cell over Brest is already pretty active

 

It's looking quite good for those in the south and east. Me, I think I'm a bit too far north and west so I doubt I will get anything from this plume (I'd love to be suprised, obviously).

 

I might stay up until about 2:00 and look for any possible signs of anything making it up here...

[Gordon Webb]

Storms moving out of Spain making good in roads towards the UK...this is how I'm looking at things in terms of potential>

Scenario1:

These showers move NE towards the UK, once they hit the UK they hit the destabilized kicking off elevated storms...ETA:4am 

 

Scenario 2:

Destabilization over the UK over the next hour so in association with warmer air, linked in this small low pressure system over the Channel Islands, helps kick off elevated storms, moving NE.

 

 

Places E of Isle of Wight at most risk tonight... I think if anything does happen, we will see signs of it soon for Scenario.2), or otherwise later on for Scenario.1) so wait patiently peeps!

 

 

 

just watched the latest bbc news 24 forecast which pretty much affirms what you said that storms are making a beeline for the South East and places east of the isle of wight to lincolnshire eastwards are in firing line which is good news for them and also good news for me because i appear to be out of direct firing line

Edited June 5, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[A.J]

et voila....a second elevated storm fires 50 miles west of the first one over Brest

[A.J]

and a third near Jersey.......classic rapid plume destabilization IMO

[Supacell]

Hmm maybe I was a little premature with my bust comments . I am hoping that now it has started it can kick off. I am still in Derby so still need to travel to get into a position likely to see anything which, looking at those steering winds, would not be too far east. I still need to try and position myself on the east coast of Norfolk by late morning though.

[A.J]

I'm going to have a bash at staying up until around 4ish....for my location, the window of opportunity is quite narrow, between say 2 and 5am

[Gordon Webb]

Hmm maybe I was a little premature with my bust comments . I am hoping that now it has started it can kick off. I am still in Derby so still need to travel to get into a position likely to see anything which, looking at those steering winds, would not be too far east. I still need to try and position myself on the east coast of Norfolk by late morning though.

 

well your practically directly North of me and the BBC shows storms East and SE of me and especially East Anglia and the south East during next few moving NE better luck the further E or SE you go

Edited June 5, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Noahjoe]

I'm heading down to the beach soon, hoping to see any storms come in from the south

[Allseasons-Si]

TWO touching down at the same time now in the usa ,same location and feed

 

 

as for here,more strikes showing now S of the channel islands,i don't think i will see owt here in the morning,looks to be heading IOW terr and NE of that unless something crops up further west,night chaps,looking forward to your media if any.