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Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

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Time for a new storm and convective thread as we move out of spring and into the meteorological summer!

 

As of now, it looks like most, if not all of Friday's interest has all but waned away, but will summer 2015 bring us anything else that's noteworthy?

 

Old thread here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82620-storm-convective-discussion-010315-onwards/page-52#entry3207664

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Major uncertainty for the end of the week, the models are really struggling to get a consistent idea of how the trough interacts with the developing ridge to our east.

The GFS for example is going back for a deeper and slower trough and enhances the storm potential for Friday night (it also gives a very warm/hot day in the south on Friday).

120-21UK.GIF?01-0

Looks like a shortwave trough forms and moves north east on Friday night with a clash of hot continental air and cooler Atlantic air which could allow thunderstorms to develop and keep going overnight.

Surface cape looks decent, even during the night time period which is unusual and mid-level cape is high. Other factors of course are needed and of course we need to get a more consistent idea of how things will pan out from Friday onwards.

120-505UK.GIF?01-0

120-109UK.GIF?01-0

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00z does bring the party back but we are still 4 days away from it all.. Still some eye candy there though

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Major uncertainty for the end of the week, the models are really struggling to get a consistent idea of how the trough interacts with the developing ridge to our east.

The GFS for example is going back for a deeper and slower trough and enhances the storm potential for Friday night (it also gives a very warm/hot day in the south on Friday).

120-21UK.GIF?01-0

Looks like a shortwave trough forms and moves north east on Friday night with a clash of hot continental air and cooler Atlantic air which could allow thunderstorms to develop and keep going overnight.

Surface cape looks decent, even during the night time period which is unusual and mid-level cape is high. Other factors of course are needed and of course we need to get a more consistent idea of how things will pan out from Friday onwards.

120-505UK.GIF?01-0

120-109UK.GIF?01-0

I have to say that that would be just perfect, for me. :yahoo:

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Yes, the 00z is much more pleasing on the eye! Certainly gives much wider areas of the UK risk of potent storms, both day time and night time storms. It is however significantly different to the 18z GFS so certainly much further to go before the models start aligning. Will be interesting to see how the 06z, 12z and 18z evolve today.

As W09 pointed out yesterday, the charts should not be relied upon until later tomorrow at the earliest (if you need an example of why, toggle between the 'current' and 'previous' runs for Friday at 18:00).

I would suggest if on Wednesday we have similar signals like the 00z you can think about purchasing some balloons and bunting (by for safekeeping until just before any event!)

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Met office fax chart for Friday......

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

:spiteful:

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Met office fax chart for Friday......

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

Hmmm, doesn't look great to me, cold front coming in from the NW rarely give storms here from memory? Could well be wrong, please correct me if so. I'd be MUCH more excited if that cold front was edging in from the SW....

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Wanna see something funny? 

 

15060518_0100.gif

 

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15060518_0100.gif

 

15060600_0100.gif

 

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It screams import to me Friday, but at so far out details and changes are going up and down like a yoyo..

 

One idea the models are looking at is storms breaking out over Southwest England and moving North up through the country.. 

 

 

Love the changes each day even if they are downgrades because every chart has massive detail and even when we are in the event with T-storms anything can happen :D

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Hmmm, doesn't look great to me, cold front coming in from the NW rarely give storms here from memory? Could well be wrong, please correct me if so. I'd be MUCH more excited if that cold front was edging in from the SW....

It follows the UKMO raw data pretty much which means that the front will carry very little on it, on the other hand there is a showery trough ahead of the front which could spark of some isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms.

Large uncertainty though, Friday looks a real headache to predict with the potential for a complete non event with temperatures failing to reach 20C but on the other hand there is still potential for temperatures to get close to 30C and import some violent storms up from France.

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It follows the UKMO raw data pretty much which means that the front will carry very little on it, on the other hand there is a showery trough ahead of the front which could spark of some isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms.

Large uncertainty though, Friday looks a real headache to predict with the potential for a complete non event with temperatures failing to reach 20C but on the other hand there is still potential for temperatures to get close to 30C and import some violent storms up from France.

 

Agree,

 

So.. Lets all do the storm dance!

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It follows the UKMO raw data pretty much which means that the front will carry very little on it, on the other hand there is a showery trough ahead of the front which could spark of some isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms.

Large uncertainty though, Friday looks a real headache to predict with the potential for a complete non event with temperatures failing to reach 20C but on the other hand there is still potential for temperatures to get close to 30C and import some violent storms up from France.

Could be a very interesting day then! Glad I'm off work. Am hoping for as much sun/heat as possible followed by violent storms. Some decent charts showing for Fri at least, encouraging. Noticed the trough on the fax chart...won't this be bringing cooler air in ahead of the cold front?

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Hmmm, doesn't look great to me, cold front coming in from the NW rarely give storms here from memory? Could well be wrong, please correct me if so. I'd be MUCH more excited if that cold front was edging in from the SW....

 

This isn't always the case. It is true in my experience particularly if we've had a sustained period of warmth/humidity - it is as if the entire profile of the atmosphere warm/moist and therefore instability reduces. However, where plumes are relatively short lived AND the contrast between pre and post frontal airmass is significant enough then significant, widespread thunderstorms can arise. 28th July 2011 springs to mind, with a huge swathe of the SE portion of the UK received very electrified and torrential downpours, all (if memory serves well) thanks the CF. I think on that occasion it may have caused a pre-frontal trough (which is not at all that uncommon). 

 

In any event the timing of the CF will be crucial...if it holds back just long enough to allow the plume to spread across then I think widespread thunderstorm activity is highly like. If however it progresses too quickly it may rule all out. In any event, on this occasion I would be surprised if the CF was not a catalyst for thunderstorm activity.

Could be a very interesting day then! Glad I'm off work. Am hoping for as much sun/heat as possible followed by violent storms. Some decent charts showing for Fri at least, encouraging. Noticed the trough on the fax chart...won't this be bringing cooler air in ahead of the cold front?

 

No, the colder/drier air will be behind the CF. Pre frontal troughs like that are our often our best friends in these setups :D

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I think to much attention is being turned to Friday what is this all about for tomorrow?!

 

One very active front crossing tonight and into tomorrow..

 

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

 

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

 

 

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

 

Right up from Midnight to Midday tomorrow it shows some serious heavy pluses almost stationary.. ???  :sorry:  :help:

 

 

 

Then...

 

 

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

 

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

 

Hmmm... 

 

Wouldnt so much say storm risk as the air is pretty much stable no cape and a LI of +10 lol!!! But still intresting 

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Hmmm, doesn't look great to me, cold front coming in from the NW rarely give storms here from memory? Could well be wrong, please correct me if so. I'd be MUCH more excited if that cold front was edging in from the SW....

 

 

I cannot post them at the moment, but if you look at Thursdays fax chart alongside, you can see that there is a warm front across the channel and flicking between the two, it swings up over the SE corner of the country sometime overnight Thursday night.

With the warmer air flow initially coming from the continent until gradually getting swept away by a northwesterly, it looks like there could be a chance of imports for at least somewhere in the SE region.

 

The cold front on that chart is partially weakening as it pushes into the high - it may destabalise the atmosphere enough to initiate some storms, but my assumption is the warm front and pre frontal surface trough are the main triggers on these charts?

 

However, the surface features on these fax charts, such as fronts and troughs, often change quite a bit by the time it reaches the day 1-2 range - particularly their alignment and speed at which they are moving between certain times.

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This isn't always the case. It is true in my experience particularly if we've had a sustained period of warmth/humidity - it is as if the entire profile of the atmosphere warm/moist and therefore instability reduces. However, where plumes are relatively short lived AND the contrast between pre and post frontal airmass is significant enough then significant, widespread thunderstorms can arise. 28th July 2011 springs to mind, with a huge swathe of the SE portion of the UK received very electrified and torrential downpours, all (if memory serves well) thanks the CF. I think on that occasion it may have caused a pre-frontal trough (which is not at all that uncommon). 

 

In any event the timing of the CF will be crucial...if it holds back just long enough to allow the plume to spread across then I think widespread thunderstorm activity is highly like. If however it progresses too quickly it may rule all out. In any event, on this occasion I would be surprised if the CF was not a catalyst for thunderstorm activity.

 

No, the colder/drier air will be behind the CF. Pre frontal troughs like that are our often our best friends in these setups :D

Thank you! Fingers crossed the cold front takes its time hehe. Some overnight storms would be just perfect....will be glued to the charts this week.

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It's getting better again! The GFS 06z has pretty much all of England and Wales back in the game again, on Friday evening. The CAPE and the LI is back up there, but also the lapse rates and the upper air temperatures at 850hpa are on the increase again:

 

post-21671-0-56177500-1433154309_thumb.p post-21671-0-00629000-1433154310_thumb.p post-21671-0-95941500-1433154310_thumb.p post-21671-0-58982700-1433154310_thumb.p

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Am i looking at it wrong? Or do the fax charts show the low moving in almost a day earlier than the GFS? Let's hope the GFS is onto something....:rolleyes:

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It's getting better again! The GFS 06z has pretty much all of England and Wales back in the game again, on Friday evening. The CAPE and the LI is back up there, but also the lapse rates and the upper air temperatures at 850hpa are on the increase again:

 

attachicon.gifCAPE.png attachicon.gifLAPSE.png attachicon.gifTEMPS.png attachicon.gifRISK.png

 

Widespread storms on that with Imports later on in the day and indeed move forward from the word go early Friday morning 

 

Next problem I see.. Crud from any storms overnight Thursday or Thursday afternoon spoiling the show with to much cloud and no heat getting in.

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Widespread storms on that with Imports later on in the day and indeed move forward from the word go early Friday morning 

 

Next problem I see.. Crud from any storms overnight Thursday or Thursday afternoon spoiling the show with to much cloud and no heat getting in.

The warmer airmass doesn't arrive before then, so I don't know why you're getting in to those type of details?

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Widespread storms on that with Imports later on in the day and indeed move forward from the word go early Friday morning 

 

Next problem I see.. Crud from any storms overnight Thursday or Thursday afternoon spoiling the show with to much cloud and no heat getting in.

 

Indeed...always a concern.

 

However, I suspect there will not be a huge amount of CIN and the air will be unstable with or without extensive heating. I'm not hugely concerned with this set up if there is a bit more crud. 

 

Models arrive heat/instability Thursday night initially across the SW, so here is where any low cloud/murk associated with storms should resides. Any storms moving north Thursday night should follow the instability westwards. 

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Worth noting also GFS has eradicated potential next week, so all or nothing in the near future.

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The warmer airmass doesn't arrive before then, so I don't know why you're getting in to those type of details?

 

Wasn't talking about over us.. Talking about imports and crud from large MCS that fire over France Thursday and Thursday night..  :wallbash:

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Wasn't talking about over us.. Talking about imports and crud from large MCS that fire over France Thursday and Thursday night..  :wallbash:

Crikey, I didn't think there was much progged for France for Thursday but the CAPE and LI over Limousin looks bang on for some t-storms with some nice heating! Could be an interesting flight into LIG on Thursday evening, we'll see...

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