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The first tropical storm of the Eastern Pacific season has formed well southwest of mainland Mexico, and about 400 miles south of Socorro Island. Andres has winds of 35kts, and has some very deep convection over the LLCC, with strong convective bands wrapping into the centre. Shear is low, and waters warm. Given the very intense convection over the LLCC, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility. In a few days, Andres' northwesterly track will take it over cooler waters, inducing weakening. Until then, Andres has ample opportunity to become the first hurricane of the season. NHC forecast an 80kt peak, but Andres has the potential to become stronger than this.

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Andres has rapidly intensified overnight and now has winds of 60kts. Andres should continue to strengthen over the next day or so. The track forecast has shifted westwards since yesterday, as the ridge over Mexico has built westwards and strengthened a little.

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Andres became the first hurricane of the season last night and has since strengthened to 80kts. Andres maintains vigorous central convection with an occasionally visible eye. The hurricane is approaching cooler waters, so doesn't have much more time to strengthen. NHC expect a little more intensification with Andres expected to become a cat 2 on the SS scale.

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Andres' eye is clearing out and winds are up to 90kts from the 4pm NHC update, but I have a feeling we could see a cat 3 major hurricane soon if this eye clearing trend continues...

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Andres peaked at 95kts. The hurricane has now weakened slightly as the eye has become cloud obscured and the central dense overcast mote asymmetric. Andres should continue to weaken slowly as it veers westwards over cooler water and into a more dry and stable airmass.

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Andres has unexpectedly restrengthened, and has become a category 3 major hurricane, with winds of 110kts. Convection has significantly deepened around the eye which has once again become clearer and better defined. Andres should begin to weaken again soon.

Hurricane porn :)

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Against all expectations, Andres has continued to intensify, and is now a category 4 hurricane with winds of 120kts. The eye is definitely now clear, and is surrounded by deep convection.

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Andres has strengthened some more, and now has winds of 125kts. NHC mention Andres is displaying some annular characteristics, evidenced by a loss of banding. This means the forecast weakening will likely be much slower than previously thought.

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Andres is dying a death as it veers north in cool waters. Some modest convection remains east of the centre but Andres will likely become a remnant low soon. The remnants are then expected to be dragged eastwards towards Major Hurricane Blanca.

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