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nsrobins

Chase Day 20 Discussion - TX/OK/KS

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You probably won't have to travel too far today from AMA to pick-up more supercells with tornado risk this evening.

Two mesoscale regions catch my eye, namely the area just to your east around Canadian again and potentially an area that might see an earlier initiation and longer discretion on the KS/CO line adjacent to the lee trough, around Syracuse, but that target is three hours away. Hodos for 22Z however here show decent directional shear, although less speed with the core of the LLJ looking to affect the OK Panhandle.

 

 

 

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After beaver yesterday, I think that I will go for Turkey TX today! Hopefully the shear will be strong enough in this area.

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After beaver yesterday, I think that I will go for Turkey TX today! Hopefully the shear will be strong enough in this area.

 

I'm thinking slightly further South west, nearer Floydada.

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Well the OFB factor is the main player from now and Turkey to Plainview looks likely - nice flat terrain mostly on the W side of the target area.

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The cell the team are bearing down on appears to show signs of rotation on radar (to my eyes anyway). Not even severe warned judging by lack of an orange box. I do wonder however how well it will hold up with the rampant cells to its South...time will tell but it looks the most tornadic to me at this current moment

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Just finished work and had a look at the radar. I'm interested in the cell to the east of Dickens and by the looks of it so are the team.

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Just finished work and had a look at the radar. I'm interested in the cell to the east of Dickens and by the looks of it so are the team.

Looks to be quite well defined already.

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I'm quite drawn to the cell currently east of Snyder.

The most isolated of the cells in their vicinity with an uninterrupted feed of heat and moisture and perhaps the most chance of becoming a right mover, particularly if influenced by the chain of storms the team are currently under. Furthermore if memory serves me well its closest to the SPC enhanced zone too.

Albeit with my relatively novice US chase experience that's where I would target right now, also with a view that if it doesn't do the business it could be a good position to intercept storms approaching from the west a bit later

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Look at this stunner Stormhunt is on it in plains/mesquite

 

T warned too

 

post-16960-0-66589200-1432847170_thumb.p

 

and now

 

post-16960-0-31192600-1432847580_thumb.p

 

 

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The cell the team are on at the moment looks really nice.. 

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Is that dust? Surprised anywhere is still dry enough if it is.

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Is that dust? Surprised anywhere is still dry enough if it is.

As with the nature of showers dave,it's hit and miss although i don't know if that particular area has had ppn recently,but i would imagine with the heat that the ground would soon dry up in elevated areas from flooded low lying areas.

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Keep your eye on those cells NW of Amarillo,they look to me to be a bit pokey,notably the thomas cell.as for the storms our team is on ,it looks to be striaght lining out to me.

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I would without doubt be in the southern target now but those cells in my original target of Syracuse, KS area look very nice at the moment.

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Calling it a day - Not a big fan of bow echoes, there is only so many times you can stop and photograph a shelf cloud, so calling this off early tonight and getting back to Childress for tomorrows last day risk for tour 2

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Certainly looked like one of those not so good days from behind the webcam and from the radar view, the days report show a count of 9 T's with the largest hail @ 2.5":

 

2037 250 6 W SELKIRK GREELEY KS 3847 10165 RELAYED VIA SPOTTER NETWORK

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