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Paul Sherman

Chase Day 19 Discussion - TX/OK/KS/CO

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Starting the day in Childress (Tx) and it looks like a few targets are becoming apparant today, will drift north up Highway 6 and watch that dryline, HRRR Breaks out convection quickly again within the 19-21z timeframe. Not great Upper support but an increase in low level winds later this afternoon could be a player. Hoping for at least some Supercell structure!

 

Here is hoping for a decent day today!

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Hi Paul

On a number of occasions this season, including yesterday, HRRR has IMO a westward bias (possibly slightly incorrect modelling of DL placement and moisture axis). I might suggest basing your target on a position about 50 miles east of the first initiation progged by HRRR.

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Tough balance between wind fields and CAPE today. From the comfort of my living room I will virtually sit in Pampa, TX today. Hopefully the large CAPE will do the trick. Might be a late one for a tornado threat though.

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I haven't looked where the team are yet, but with a quick ganders at the models, my virtual starting position today is in the OK panhandle - say Beaver -it has a nice ring to its name. Now to look at the Obs and see how wrong I am, lol.

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Loving the storm that has quickly grown and become severe warned that the team are chasing. Shot up to 45000ft as well!

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Loving the storm that has quickly grown and become severe warned that the team are chasing. Shot up to 45000ft as well!

 

Gone Tornado Warned apparently.

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Mike Olbinski is just east of it, reckons its getting a hook on it. :D

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It's got a fairly strong couple - cant see the tornado warning yet. And I think that the teams GPS isn't working - for me at least.

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It's got a fairly strong couple - cant see the tornado warning yet. And I think that the teams GPS isn't working - for me at least.

same here have not moved for a while still showing just south of wheeler 

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Think the team are near Canadian.

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Tightening up now on radar.


Does anyone else have the radarscope app?

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Nearly Down then - Stunning funnel half way to the ground

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It keeps trying. Come on - you can do it!

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I have a feeling it will get tornado warned very soon....

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Look at the top on that.. From Dominator 2... 

 

TnKAClW.jpg


From the NW Stream, theres definitely a lowering...

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Best stream of the tour - lovely funnel

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amazing come on nearly there

 

lifted looks like its trying again

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This looks awesome. 

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We have another lowering, can she do it this time

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cox3dmN.jpg

 

Its trying...

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