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Chase Day 18 Discussion - TX/OK

Paul Sherman

By Paul Sherman
in Storm Chase USA

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Will be starting out in Mulvane and early indications show a dryline play in Western Oklahoma with 6,000jkg of Cape on offer! Could be some huge hail and huge structure.

 

Wellies have been bought, Hovercraft is ready and waiting and raincoats at the ready for a flooding great time out on the Plains!

 

Wish us luck!

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

My target for early afternoon is Clinton OK and then see where the land is lying then. That is a 3-4 hour drive away by my calculations. Hopefully no more grunge!

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

I would target Elk City, OK, 4km NAM breaks out precip. around that area of western Oklahoma 5pm.

 

post-1052-0-94307100-1432643669_thumb.gi

 

3-4000 j/kg CAPE

post-1052-0-04569500-1432643735_thumb.gi

 

dryline sharpening by 00z along TX Panhandle/OK border:

post-1052-0-45033900-1432643886_thumb.gi

 

Low level jet cranking up by 00z, so could see tornado prospects perhaps increasing by then

 

post-1052-0-92393000-1432644047_thumb.gipost-1052-0-41315600-1432644074_thumb.gi

Edited by Nick F
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IanM Enthusiast

IanM

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Outdoors
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

We've upgraded the Tahoe's for the rest of the tours, I'm not sure they are great for hail though.

 

post-1056-0-27071600-1432647795_thumb.jp

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dallas Enthusiast

dallas

Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
Posted

Nice one IanM lol

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

We've upgraded the Tahoe's for the rest of the tours, I'm not sure they are great for hail though.

 

attachicon.gifLARC_V_vehicle.JPEG

 

Long as we don't have to wear the camouflage gear, but very wise otherwise. Perhaps get some crash helmets for the hail and we'd be sorted.

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nsrobins Enthusiast

nsrobins

Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
Posted

The tornado on the MX border has made news today, as have the floods. Aerial shots just now on Sky of river flooding across a wide area of C OK and NC TX.

The amphibious vehicle may not be such a bad idea.

OT and the DL play today actually looks quite 'sharp' with hopefully less grungy wet flops that have dominated the last few weeks. My target Altus, OK from 20Z

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

It looks like the north east boundary of the dryline bulge is right on the OK/TX Red River boundary so that is the area that I would want to be in. Will need to keep an eye on the local obs. Are you still out there, Neil?

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nsrobins Enthusiast

nsrobins

Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
Posted

It looks like the north east boundary of the dryline bulge is right on the OK/TX Red River boundary so that is the area that I would want to be in. Will need to keep an eye on the local obs. Are you still out there, Neil?

No I returned last Friday having moved from the plains to San Diego for business. The weather in California was a lot less complicated than Texas and OK it has to be said! Next year I'll be out again, but not solo. Damn dangerous chasing on your own!

Looking for a cu field on the DL in the next hour or so.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

No I returned last Friday having moved from the plains to San Diego for business. The weather in California was a lot less complicated than Texas and OK it has to be said! Next year I'll be out again, but not solo. Damn dangerous chasing on your own!

Looking for a cu field on the DL in the next hour or so.

I'd say - and it takes balls to drive through some of those floods as well, with the strength of the torrent - in the clips that Tom posted you could see the SUV getting pushed towards the verge.

 

Regarding today, I'm sure that the dryline bulge isn't as pronounced or as far north in the latest modelling as it was earlier, and this is pushing the stronger risk zone further south into TX.

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Author
Posted

Not getting suckered on that 52kft beast that is east of Lawton, we are near Oklahoma City presently and it is huuuuge.

 

Troll Storm maybe ?

 

Sticking with target of SW Oklahoma and Points south towards Wichita Falls

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nsrobins Enthusiast

nsrobins

Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
Posted

I'd say - and it takes balls to drive through some of those floods as well, with the strength of the torrent

Indeed. Mine were unceremoniously ripped from me in a tor warned HP torrent on the first day chasing SW of Wichita Falls on the 8th May, and one day I will go back and retrieve them from the flood they are currently submerged in.

 

That cell E of Lawton has a decent inflow train, and as Paul says has attained quite a height already. I do however concur that it's a teaser and should be avoided in favour of tastier things yet to develop Altus to Childress.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted (edited)

Not getting suckered on that 52kft beast that is east of Lawton, we are near Oklahoma City presently and it is huuuuge.

 

Troll Storm maybe ?

 

Sticking with target of SW Oklahoma and Points south towards Wichita Falls

Are going to head down I44 towards Lawton and then west?

 

And time to open the radarscope app and have a look at that cell....

Edited by chionomaniac
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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Latest satelite - Can I see a slight bulge with no cumulus? ( or am I just hoping?)

 

post-4523-0-92156600-1432666264_thumb.gi

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nsrobins Enthusiast

nsrobins

Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
Posted

I highly recommend you get to Altus/Vernon/Crowell asap. I predict a few supercells initiating within an hour and the first few hours have favourable tornado indices before things line out.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

MD for area

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0785.html

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

recent vis satellite shows Lone Storm near Lawton/Duncan and a cu field to the west of it:

 

post-1052-0-94091700-1432666688_thumb.gi

Edited by Nick F
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I think I'm saving up for a chase. Not easy when you're on benefits. But, hey, one day, perhaps!! Keep the vids coming, chaps! :D

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Hi Paul - any chance that you could give the stream a kick please?

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

None of the models, even the HRRR, pick out the storms along/east of the I-44 in Oklahoma. HRRR does break out storms down by the Red River in far SW OK at 21z (3pm CDT):

 

post-1052-0-57683500-1432667435_thumb.gi

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

I am seeing the cap getting broken NW of Graham TX with 30,000ft towers.

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Author
Posted

Yh loads of time and we are in a great position for today, Ed we are having issues with the streaming cars data today but John will try to sort it when we stop

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Yh loads of time and we are in a great position for today, Ed we are having issues with the streaming cars data today but John will try to sort it when we stop

No worries, thanks. More important as ever to get into position as I have a feeling it could be a good day.

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

I am seeing the cap getting broken NW of Graham TX with 30,000ft towers.

 

Quite an agitated cumuls field in that part of Texas on satellite too, can see a few echoes on the radar SW of Witchita Falls now too:

 

post-1052-0-24448100-1432668523_thumb.gi

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