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Paul Sherman

Chase Day 18 Discussion - TX/OK

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Will be starting out in Mulvane and early indications show a dryline play in Western Oklahoma with 6,000jkg of Cape on offer! Could be some huge hail and huge structure.

 

Wellies have been bought, Hovercraft is ready and waiting and raincoats at the ready for a flooding great time out on the Plains!

 

Wish us luck!

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My target for early afternoon is Clinton OK and then see where the land is lying then. That is a 3-4 hour drive away by my calculations. Hopefully no more grunge!

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I would target Elk City, OK, 4km NAM breaks out precip. around that area of western Oklahoma 5pm.

 

post-1052-0-94307100-1432643669_thumb.gi

 

3-4000 j/kg CAPE

post-1052-0-04569500-1432643735_thumb.gi

 

dryline sharpening by 00z along TX Panhandle/OK border:

post-1052-0-45033900-1432643886_thumb.gi

 

Low level jet cranking up by 00z, so could see tornado prospects perhaps increasing by then

 

post-1052-0-92393000-1432644047_thumb.gipost-1052-0-41315600-1432644074_thumb.gi

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We've upgraded the Tahoe's for the rest of the tours, I'm not sure they are great for hail though.

 

post-1056-0-27071600-1432647795_thumb.jp

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Nice one IanM lol

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We've upgraded the Tahoe's for the rest of the tours, I'm not sure they are great for hail though.

 

attachicon.gifLARC_V_vehicle.JPEG

 

Long as we don't have to wear the camouflage gear, but very wise otherwise. Perhaps get some crash helmets for the hail and we'd be sorted.

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The tornado on the MX border has made news today, as have the floods. Aerial shots just now on Sky of river flooding across a wide area of C OK and NC TX.

The amphibious vehicle may not be such a bad idea.

OT and the DL play today actually looks quite 'sharp' with hopefully less grungy wet flops that have dominated the last few weeks. My target Altus, OK from 20Z

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It looks like the north east boundary of the dryline bulge is right on the OK/TX Red River boundary so that is the area that I would want to be in. Will need to keep an eye on the local obs. Are you still out there, Neil?

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It looks like the north east boundary of the dryline bulge is right on the OK/TX Red River boundary so that is the area that I would want to be in. Will need to keep an eye on the local obs. Are you still out there, Neil?

No I returned last Friday having moved from the plains to San Diego for business. The weather in California was a lot less complicated than Texas and OK it has to be said! Next year I'll be out again, but not solo. Damn dangerous chasing on your own!

Looking for a cu field on the DL in the next hour or so.

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No I returned last Friday having moved from the plains to San Diego for business. The weather in California was a lot less complicated than Texas and OK it has to be said! Next year I'll be out again, but not solo. Damn dangerous chasing on your own!

Looking for a cu field on the DL in the next hour or so.

I'd say - and it takes balls to drive through some of those floods as well, with the strength of the torrent - in the clips that Tom posted you could see the SUV getting pushed towards the verge.

 

Regarding today, I'm sure that the dryline bulge isn't as pronounced or as far north in the latest modelling as it was earlier, and this is pushing the stronger risk zone further south into TX.

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Not getting suckered on that 52kft beast that is east of Lawton, we are near Oklahoma City presently and it is huuuuge.

 

Troll Storm maybe ?

 

Sticking with target of SW Oklahoma and Points south towards Wichita Falls

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I'd say - and it takes balls to drive through some of those floods as well, with the strength of the torrent

Indeed. Mine were unceremoniously ripped from me in a tor warned HP torrent on the first day chasing SW of Wichita Falls on the 8th May, and one day I will go back and retrieve them from the flood they are currently submerged in.

 

That cell E of Lawton has a decent inflow train, and as Paul says has attained quite a height already. I do however concur that it's a teaser and should be avoided in favour of tastier things yet to develop Altus to Childress.

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Not getting suckered on that 52kft beast that is east of Lawton, we are near Oklahoma City presently and it is huuuuge.

 

Troll Storm maybe ?

 

Sticking with target of SW Oklahoma and Points south towards Wichita Falls

Are going to head down I44 towards Lawton and then west?

 

And time to open the radarscope app and have a look at that cell....

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Latest satelite - Can I see a slight bulge with no cumulus? ( or am I just hoping?)

 

post-4523-0-92156600-1432666264_thumb.gi

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I highly recommend you get to Altus/Vernon/Crowell asap. I predict a few supercells initiating within an hour and the first few hours have favourable tornado indices before things line out.

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recent vis satellite shows Lone Storm near Lawton/Duncan and a cu field to the west of it:

 

post-1052-0-94091700-1432666688_thumb.gi

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I think I'm saving up for a chase. Not easy when you're on benefits. But, hey, one day, perhaps!! Keep the vids coming, chaps! :D

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Hi Paul - any chance that you could give the stream a kick please?

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None of the models, even the HRRR, pick out the storms along/east of the I-44 in Oklahoma. HRRR does break out storms down by the Red River in far SW OK at 21z (3pm CDT):

 

post-1052-0-57683500-1432667435_thumb.gi

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I am seeing the cap getting broken NW of Graham TX with 30,000ft towers.

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Yh loads of time and we are in a great position for today, Ed we are having issues with the streaming cars data today but John will try to sort it when we stop

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Yh loads of time and we are in a great position for today, Ed we are having issues with the streaming cars data today but John will try to sort it when we stop

No worries, thanks. More important as ever to get into position as I have a feeling it could be a good day.

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I am seeing the cap getting broken NW of Graham TX with 30,000ft towers.

 

Quite an agitated cumuls field in that part of Texas on satellite too, can see a few echoes on the radar SW of Witchita Falls now too:

 

post-1052-0-24448100-1432668523_thumb.gi

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