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Nick F

Chase Day 17 - Slight Risk KS & NE, Moderate Risk TX & OK

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SPC have recently upgraded with a 10% tornado risk over north central/NE Texas and SE Oklahoma, with DFW in the 10% risk zone.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

...NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST TX.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER
   QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...AND INTO
   NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK LATER TODAY.  A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
   HAS FORMED IN WEST TX...WITHIN THE ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
   AND INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES
   THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORMS.  MOST OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS
   ARE CONSISTENT IN ORGANIZING THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO A BOWING
   MCS /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN
   OK LATER TODAY.  GIVEN THE FAST AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH...THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO PASS
   ACROSS THE REGION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AMPLE
   CAPE...HAVE UPGRADED THIS REGION TO A MODERATE RISK.  VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
   TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED FOR THE RISK OF DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MCS AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN
   INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKEST...AS WELL AS FOR THE RISK OF QLCS
   SPIN-UPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS.  STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR AND NORTHERN LA DURING THE EVENING WITH A
   CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

 

WV imagery animation shows a shortwave trough over SW Texas (dark area) which will push NE towards NE Texas and looks to be the main focus for storm development. Already allowed an MCS develop further west along the I-20 near Midland/Odessa, and these storms are indicated by 4km nam to organise and push NE towards N/NE Texas and southern Oklahoma later, tornadic discrete supercells maybe forming ahead of this MCS/squall that may even form a Derecho.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/anim8wv.html

 

 

4km NAM:

post-1052-0-80540700-1432558898_thumb.gipost-1052-0-13548600-1432558917_thumb.gipost-1052-0-78606600-1432558926_thumb.gipost-1052-0-91441200-1432558944_thumb.gi

 

Quite a long haul for the team from Garden City in SW Kansas though.

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SPC have recently upgraded with a 10% tornado risk over north central/NE Texas and SE Oklahoma, with DFW in the 10% risk zone.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

...NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK...

   MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE

   TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST TX.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER

   QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...AND INTO

   NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK LATER TODAY.  A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS

   HAS FORMED IN WEST TX...WITHIN THE ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THE

   SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  

WV imagery animation shows a shortwave trough over SW Texas (dark area) which will push NE towards NE Texas and looks to be the main focus for storm development. Already allowed an MCS develop further west along the I-20 near Midland/Odessa, and these storms are indicated by 4km nam to organise and push NE towards N/NE Texas and southern Oklahoma later, tornadic discrete supercells maybe forming ahead of this MCS/squall that may even form a Derecho.

 

 

Quite a long haul for the team from Garden City in SW Kansas though.

516 miles or 8hours of none stop driving, to be precise, although how does it set up for tomorrow?

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516 miles or 8hours of none stop driving, to be precise, although how does it set up for tomorrow?

 

Is it really that long? Pfffft!

 

Alternatively, there is the Slight/5% tor risk over n central/NE Kansas too.

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Obviously we are not going for the 10% Moderate Box as that 8 hours could easily turn into 12 with the situation in Oklahoma, so heading north and east from Garden City and take our chances with Northern Kansas and SE Nebraska today!

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Thanks Dorsetbred, don't think id heard of one there before

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Looks a very dangerous day for people in Southwestern/Western/North-Central Texas and Southwest/South-Central Oklahoma.

Possibility of long track/strong tornadoes.

post-9331-0-36011100-1432574280_thumb.jp

post-9331-0-34287800-1432574292_thumb.jp

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Have edited the title of the thread, bit of lunacy on my part to think the team were going to take an 8-10hr trek down to north central Texas.

 

Anyway, looking at the northern target, HRRR breaks out ppn around 22z UTC (4pm CDT) over central KS around Salina them more extensively across north central and NE Kansas thereafter, appears to be triggered by the same shortwave as the one pushing NE across Texas and Oklahoma this afternoon and also weak surface low moving NE over KS . HRRR showing 2000-3000 j/kg CAPE as surface heating continues this afternoon:

 

HRRR precip at 21-22z

 

post-1052-0-22408800-1432575196_thumb.gi post-1052-0-70324100-1432575182_thumb.gi

 

CAPE at 22z

post-1052-0-54533000-1432575126_thumb.gi

 

0-1km wind shear and EHI looks to increase over NE Kansas towards 00z-01z UTC as winds back with the approaching sfc low form the SW and shortwave too

post-1052-0-04629300-1432575656_thumb.gipost-1052-0-34111000-1432575619_thumb.gi

 

At least with the northern target storms les likely to line out as quickly into a large squall as like the southern target, plus less risk of getting cut of by flooding than down there.

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Recent vis satellite showing a nice cumlus field building over the eastern half of Kansas. Plus you can also see the cirrus shield of the storm system marching NE across Texas and SW Oklahoma.

 

post-1052-0-07983200-1432580092_thumb.gi

 

Surface obs suggesting some juicy air moving north into the same area, sfc winds backed SSE/SEly ... just a waiting game to see what pops up where!

 

post-1052-0-54831600-1432580195_thumb.gi

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And off we go down in Texas ...

 

post-1052-0-31066800-1432581188_thumb.jp

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And off we go down in Texas ...

 

attachicon.gifLampasastor_fox2.JPG

I'll tell you what Nick, it's messy down there! Just had a look - 3 tornado warnings amidst a sprawl of convection. a wise choice to steer clear with the incumbent flooding.

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I'll tell you what Nick, it's messy down there! Just had a look - 3 tornado warnings amidst a sprawl of convection. a wise choice to steer clear with the incumbent flooding.

 

Yep, tough one to know where to target along that several 100 mile long arcing line of storms, other than perhaps head as far south as possible along it. Pot luck really ...

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Yep, tough one to know where to target along that several 100 mile long arcing line of storms, other than perhaps head as far south as possible along it. Pot luck really ...

Moisture in abundance. Not really one of those years when a supercell sucks all the moisture from a 100 mile radius...

 

 

first storms setting off in the less favourable tornadic conditions in south central KS. Team in Central KS heading NE

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Looking good up here near Salina, nice crisp convection wont be long now, the wichita stuff looks messy so steering clear of that as well

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The situation in C TX now is an absolute nightmare. Flooded roads. bow segments and derechos, several tornado warned areas and total chaos down and around the I35 corridor from the river to Austin in a largely semi-urban or urban demographic. Not an environment to be 'leisure' chasing in to be perfectly honest. Wise choice to stick to the KS target today.

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Yep now 8 tornado warned cells in Tx into OK. I don't think that I would feel comfortable in a 3 car convoy in those areas. Stream looks good Paul!

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Great bit of convection right ahead of the team right now. That tilted tower may not look like much, but is already up to 20000ft

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That's a nice cell developing guys,glad you didn't go for that mess further south,looks horrendous.

 

those storms have developed fast in Kansas.

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HRRR model was spot on earlier with the initiation of storms around Salina ...

 

Mike Olbinski's stream on TVN well worth watching as well as the netwx one.

 

Tornado warned too.

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