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Paul Sherman

Chase Day 15 Discussion - Denver Cyclone

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Starting today in Limon in a very good area for the Denver Cyclone. Storms should initiate by mid afternoon and become Supercells with a great chance of Tornadoes in and around Denver and points east towards the CO/KS Border area later before it all lines out.

 

Paul

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Looking similar set-up to yesterday, though 12z NAM points my finger to SE corner of Colorado for most abundant moisture/CAPE and best wind shear overlap:

 

SBCAPE and Td 7pm MDT

post-1052-0-94895000-1432395657_thumb.gipost-1052-0-69568800-1432395464_thumb.gi

 

0-1km shear and sig. tornado 7pm MDT:

post-1052-0-71114000-1432395707_thumb.gipost-1052-0-30424100-1432395742_thumb.gi

 

Fairly good upper support at 500mb level:

 

post-1052-0-53557900-1432395780_thumb.gi

 

Precip charts show Limon/Denver/Colorado Springs good bet and also down into SE corner Colorado:

 

post-1052-0-10697400-1432395820_thumb.gi

 

Be interesting to see where, if any, tornadoes drop - NAM points to SE Colorado best bet, but the weather never bears out exactly how the models suggest.

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I think for early afternoon I like SE Colorado best too, Nick. And it appears that the team are heading towards a tornado warned cell that is west of La Junta presently

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0195.html

 

Tornado watch for East Colorado.

 

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM
UNTIL 700 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EVOLVING TOWARD A MORE
LINEAR CONFIGURATION WITH TIME AS STORMS SPREAD NORTHEAST OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE PLAINS. HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES.

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Is the stream on or are the team in a dubious connectivity area?

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Is the stream on or are the team in a dubious connectivity area?

thats what id love to know would love to see the storm there in right now

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thats what id love to know would love to see the storm there in right now

There are a lot of other chasers on this storm. Lost its tornado and severity warning though!

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La Junta storm not up to much ATM looking at TVN streams, but keeping an eye on it, as this area looks most favourable for rotating storms.

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Stream is up now :)

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Stream is up now :)

Good stuff Paul. Now all we need are the storms to play ball...

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Just watched some Colorado dust and probably some tumbleweed too blow past one stream as the gust front blew through. Don't think I've ever seen so much tumbleweed as when I've been in CO!

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More flash floods it seems..

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Arkansas River near Las Animas looks very swollen from one of the live streams that just crossed over, all that water headed toward a flooded Oklahoma!

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The stream has been down for quite a while now, hope it's temporary!

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Shocking Connectivity today at times just like the shocking storms,. total junkfest of a day.

 

Ho hum cant win em all!

 

Play nicely Colorado!

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