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Paul Sherman

Chase Day 14 Discussion - CO/OK/NM/TX

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Heading into Colorado today for a little DCVZ Action, if it hits it could be a great day with some Colorado Magic.

 

Leaving at 930am local time, should be there around 5pm.

 

Paul S & Tour 2 Team

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When I saw the outlook I had a little bet that you wouldn't be able to resist Colorado!

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Ok, I should probably know this but what's DCVZ?!

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Ok, I should probably know this but what's DCVZ?!

 

 

Denver Cyclone Vortex Zone?? or something like that

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Aha, thanks both. 

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Yep, saw my first tornado in Colorado, and still laugh at how excited Paul S was :D

 

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It's a pity that the Colorado risk didn't become clearer earlier. The team still look to be around 4 hours away and it is just after 2:30pm local time from the 5% tor risk zone. Mind you, the TX risk zone has shrunk and shrunk so good call.

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Some cells popped up between Colorado Springs and Limon, which looks to be where the team are headed now. Surface wind convergence between SEly and NEly winds noted on recent obs in this area too.

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MCD just recently issued for Colorado, suggests it maybe a late show for a tornado.

 

post-1052-0-81032800-1432328069_thumb.gi

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0718   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0337 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL CO   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE    VALID 222037Z - 222200Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE   THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL   CO. SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND A   WEAK TORNADO OR TWO...MAY DEVELOP. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR   POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.   DISCUSSION...DIABATIC HEATING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING MIDLEVEL   CYCLONE IS OCCURRING AS AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT SHIFTS N TO NEAR THE   I-70 CORRIDOR AS OF 20Z. WHILE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING   ACROSS MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL CO...TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RECOVERING   AND WARMING INTO THE 60S...AMIDST MID-40S TO LOW-50S DEWPOINTS.   VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN INCREASING TOWERING CU FIELD ALONG/E   OF THE FRONT RANGE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS EVOLVING ACROSS ELBERT   AND EL PASO COUNTIES.    A CORRIDOR OF 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE VALUES EXISTS FROM COS/PUB   EWD...AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION MAY RESULT IN THESE VALUES   APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. 30-40 KT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW   IS YIELDING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR   SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK /PER PUX AND FTG VWP DATA/   WHICH IS LIKELY TO LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT INITIALLY...BUT SELY SFC   WINDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK SFC LOW DEEPENS   OVER S-CNTRL CO.    THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING SVR POTENTIAL ARE THE MARGINAL   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS   A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO...MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...AND   COULD REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A WW.   ..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/22/2015

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Looking like a minor swarm clustering in just that area, good for the team as not so far to travel to be in the active area.

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60 miles SE Of Limon now, big old Anvil should be on the Stream, in perfect position 

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Yep, can see the anvil on the horizon now, amazing how quickly you can close in on a storm 60 miles away on those straight and fast roads!

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