June 2015 CET forecasts

[Lettucing Gutted]

Yeah, 2012 was the last one, at 12.6C to the 20th. The last year below 12.5C to the 20th was 1991, at 11.1C.

The first 20 days of June 1991 were in a league of their own there!  Even the same periods in the cool Junes that returned post 2007 look hot compared to 11.1C!  June 1991 had very potent northerly blasts in the first 20 days.  Just imagine if that persisted 'til the end.  We could have had our first sub 10C June and first sub 10C summer month!

Edited June 12, 2015 by Goodbye Cold Weather! :(

[reef]

June 2013 started off pretty cool here with a mean max of 11.5C to the 10th compared to 12.4C this year.

 

2012 was notable with 12.4C to the 15th, but nothing compared to 1991, which had 10.9C to the 15th and was still only 11.1C to the 20th.

[Timmytour]

The mean monthly CET for May was over a degree Celsius colder than last year. In fact all five months this year have been over a degree celsius colder than the corresponding month last year. The last time that happened was in 1855, 160 years ago.

If June follows suit it will be the first time for 216 years that all the first six months have all been at least IC colder than the previous year's corresponding months

[stewfox]

If June follows suit it will be the first time for 216 years that all the first six months have all been at least IC colder than the previous year's corresponding months

 

Have we ever head a year when all months were colder then the previous year ?

[Summer Sun]

Don't think we're going to get an update from Hadley today

[AderynCoch]

Have we ever head a year when all months were colder then the previous year ?

If that happens then we're in for a truly terrible August!

[Lettucing Gutted]

If that happens then we're in for a truly terrible August!

That would be an achievement in itself!  The last time 2 consecutive sub 15C augusts occurred was 1985 and 1986!

Edited June 14, 2015 by Goodbye Cold Weather! :(

[Weather26]

Still no update from Hadley

[Summer Sun]

Looks like Hadley still have an issue somewhere could be one or more of the stations are not reporting data back

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Have we ever head a year when all months were colder then the previous year ?

 

If I were a betting man, I would nominate 1816?

Edited June 14, 2015 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Relativistic]

If I were a betting man, I would nominate 1816?

 

Nope, 1816 failed to record colder months than 1815 in January, October, November and December.

 

1815      0.3   6.5   7.3   8.1  12.6  14.3  14.9  15.3  13.4  10.3   3.4   2.3     9.07

1816      2.7   2.1   3.9   6.6   9.9  12.8  13.4  13.9  11.8  10.3   3.9   3.1     7.89

 

Still just one of a handful of years though that was sub 8C. It really was a year without Summer too.

 

1740 comes close.

 

 1739      4.0   6.8   5.8   6.7  11.6  15.2  16.0  14.7  13.1   9.6   3.7   3.2     9.21

 1740     -2.8  -1.6   3.9   6.4   8.6  12.8  15.3  14.7  14.0   5.3   3.3   2.2     6.86

[Methuselah]

1977?

[summer blizzard]

To be fair I think the cet will be very similar to 1972 or 1997 as they are the nearest analogues to this summer and this month currently.

 

Not sure if you saw but i posted my summer forecast in the seasonal thread.

[Timmytour]

Have we ever head a year when all months were colder then the previous year ?

Had a quick look, and 1962 seems to have come close with only a January which was 0.4C warmer than Jan 1961 avoiding the cleen sweep. With the first two months of 1963 being colder again than their 1962 counterparts, the run of 13 consecutive months may be a record.

Prior to 1962 there was 1860 only stopped from the clean sweep by an October warmer by 0.2C and 1829 stopped by a May warmer by 0.1C

[Weather-history]

To be fair I think the cet will be very similar to 1972 or 1997 as they are the nearest analogues to this summer and this month currently.

To me that makes a bit of a nonsense of analogues because there is a 2.3C difference between those Junes!

[Summer Sun]

Nothing from Hadley again so far today

[ARTDEMOLE]

           

[Gael_Force]

If the 06z GFS verifies, seems little chance of a late heatwave to pull up the month. Could we see sub 13 this year?

 

The guy who runs the CET competition on TWO said the Hadley was running almost half a degree too warm when last reported.

[Gael_Force]

To me that makes a bit of a nonsense of analogues because there is a 2.3C difference between those Junes!

 

The nonsense is that he is only using one criteria ie a strong Nino in development.

[summer blizzard]

I don't support the 1972 analogue myself. 

[Weather-history]

I watch gavs weather vids which is the site owned by gavin partridge. He has a good friend on twitter called stuart markham and stuart markham uses his analogue based forecasts based on enso and solar activity. The closet matches he came out with that were similar to this year were 1972 and 1997.

But how can you base a forecast on this for the UK?

June 1972 is one of the coldest June's on record, rainfall was about average. June 1997 had a warmer first half than second half, balancing out to average with an exceptionally wet second half resulting in the wettest June of the 20th century.

I can't see how you can base a CET nor rainfall forecast on this.

Edited June 16, 2015 by Weather-history

[ARTDEMOLE]

Hadley back on line.  12.8c.  Anomaly  -0.9c. Provisional to 14th. .    Lets hope they do a figures today...

[Summer Sun]

Hadley back working again to the 14th

 

12.8c to the 14th

 

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

12.8c to the 15th

 

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 12.3C -2.2C below normal.