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Roger J Smith

June 2015 CET forecasts

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CET Averages and Extremes

 

23.0 ... 3rd, 1947, warmest daily mean

22.4 ... average for last five days in June 1976

21.2 ... average for last nine days in June 1976

 

18.2 ... 1846 (warmest June)

18.0 ... 1676 (2nd warmest)

17.3 ... 1826 (3rd warmest)

17.1 ... 1822 (4th warmest)

17.0 ... 1976 (5th warmest)

 

15.1 ... CET 2014

 

14.8 ... average for 2001-2014

14.5 ... average for 1981-2010, also for 1701-1800

14.3 ... average for all years 1659-2014, also 1801-1900

14.2 ... average for 1961-1990, also 1901-2000 

14.1 ... average for 1971-2000, also 1659-1700

 

13.6 ... CET 2013

13.5 ... CET 2012

 

11.8 ... 1972, 1916, 1909 (tied 2nd coldest)

11.5 ... 1675 (coldest June)

 

 7.3 ... 9th (1816) and 19th (1795) coldest daily means

_______________________________________________________

 

Enter your forecast by end of Sunday 31st May, or with increasing late penalties during the first three days of June.

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13.9 please.

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16.9ºC Flaming June.

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14.1c please

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A lot of negativity about the coming summer with the long rangers seemingly in agreement on a cool and wet summer. That said the CFS weeklies and now the GFS ens are going against this with heights perhaps building favourably to bring a spell of summery weather. At this point I think I will give it a week before a final prediction.

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15.0C for me please.

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16.9ºC Flaming June.

A little quirk.

Junes with a CET of 16.0C or over, the following December CET average is 3.2C

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Too early to call, will wait until the end of the week, some charts suggesting perhaps a warmish start to the month..

 

June can be the best month of the year, it generally sees clearer skies than July and August thanks to less pollution causing haze, and is also usually not associated with too much in the way of humidity unlike July and August making for more comfortable sleeping. Also simply because it comes at the start of the summer, there is a always a more positive glow to things than August especially when desperation sets in.. light levels are at there fullest, its the month of twilight, you can't beat a warm light summer evening in June. A warm sunny day in June I would take any day over a warm sunny day in August (I always have a moan about August.)

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19C  :(  Last sub 12C June in 1972.  Last sub 13C and last sub 13.5C June in 1991.

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Still a bit early yet for me, the models are hinting at an improving picture for June but its not in a reliable timeframe yet, so I shall hold off until the end of the week

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After definitely overcooking May it's time for me to tempt fate and risk doing the same again - let's say 15.1.

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Might change my guess closer to the day itself but, for now, will go for14.2*C please. (Hoping that possible warm and settled start to June won't become eradicated, though).

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Going for 16.1C

The first half of June will produce the best spell of summery weather since July 2013. The second half will probably end up near normal.

Though the CFS sets up an interesting height anomaly throughout the fist half of June with low heights over Iberia and higher heights over Scandinavia, a south easterly flow with the risk of thundery outbreaks pushing up from the continent. This reflected in other longer range outputs.

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13.8, sadly. That mass of cold water in the Atlantic will probably ruin it.

Really strange that June was no warmer in the late 20th Century than the late 17th, if only the same was true of Jan or Feb...

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Below is the June CET from 1659-2014 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

zqKd6rp.png

 

 

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 10.4 and 11.2C after corrections. The average June following Aprils within that range is 14.1C.

 

The linear trend for the whole record is +0.01C per century. Following this trend gives a June CET of 14.3C.

The linear trend since 1850 is +0.20C per century. Following this trend gives a June CET of 14.4C.

The linear trend since 1950 is +0.33C per century. Following this trend gives a June CET of 14.5C.

The linear trend over the last 50 years is +1.08C per century. Following this trend gives a June CET of 14.6C.

The linear trend over the last 30 years is +3.21C per century. Following this trend gives a June CET of 14.8C.

 

The current 30 year average of 14.4C poses little threat to any records. The highest 30 year average peak in recent years was 14.5C up to 2011, but even that was still well of the record of 14.7C set in the 30 years up to 1851.

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