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Arctic Sea Ice Extent Minimum Poll 2015  

22 members have voted

  1. 1. What will the NSIDC daily sea ice extent minimum be in 2015 (in milions km2)

    • Greater than 7.0
      0
    • 6.8 to 7.0 (80s average)
      0
    • 6.6 to 6.8
      0
    • 6.4 to 6.6 (90s average)
      1
    • 6.2 to 6.4
      0
    • 6.0 to 6.2
      0
    • 5.8 to 6.0
      0
    • 5.6 to 5.8
      0
    • 5.4 to 5.6 (2000s average)
      1
    • 5.2 to 5.4
      2
    • 5.0 to 5.2 (2013)
      2
    • 4.8 to 5.0 (2014)
      0
    • 4.6 to 4.8
      2
    • 4.4 to 4.6 (2010s average so far)
      1
    • 4.2 to 4.4
      4
    • 4.0 to 4.2 (2007)
      0
    • 3.8 to 4.0
      3
    • 3.6 to 3.8
      0
    • 3.4 to 3.6
      4
    • 3.2 to 3.4 (2012)
      0
    • 3.0 to 3.2
      1
    • 2.8 to 3.0
      0
    • 2.6 to 2.8
      0
    • 2.4 to 2.6
      0
    • Less than 2.4
      1


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Now that we're entering the full swing of the melt season, I thought it would be time for the first sea ice minimum poll of 2015.

 

(Most ice info used here is based on the daily NSIDC daily sea ice extent data, unless otherwise stated).

 

We've just come out of a very mild, though not exceptionally so, winter which saw the lowest sea ice maximum on record by most area and extent measures.

 

925hPa temps north of 70N ......... ............. .............. Maximum Sea Ice Extent

cJPXv7l.png igOCs91.png

 

 

The early part of the melt season has seen temperatures well above average across most of the Arctic, with sea ice extent generally in the bottom 3 on record, with the daily value of 12,531,000km2 being the 2nd lowest for May 16th (most recent).

 

q5Dn1j0.gif

 

On the other hand, sea ice volume has continued to slowly grow from the minimum in 2012, with April 2015 the 7th smallest volume on record.

 

piomas-trnd4.png

 

There is a long way to go this melt season, but the forecast for the near term shows things warming up across much of the Arctic with temperatures climbing well above freezing, especially across the Pacific side, around the Beaufort/Chukchi regions, so a good chance of an accelerated melt period over the next 7 days.

 

2d91dux.gif

 

 

After that, who knows? 

 

KTt6NbV.png

 

 

(Votes are set to private, for anyone concerned about that)

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looks like the year before the year the Arctic goes ice free . As I follow CT area most closely I predict a minimum between 2.2 and 2.4 m sq kms .

Is it possible that the cold water flow thru Fram and Nares into the N. Atlantic is increasing as  warm water appears to be being forced in to the Arctic from the Pacific ? Helps keep local global warming here in N. Ireland well at bay :)

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I'm already getting a little twitched. We have been seeing normal levels of export from Fram and we appear to be tapping into the extra ordinary warmth of 'the blob' placing the Pacific side under added forcings. Other sites have discussed the impacts of Nino on the basin and most appear to think the year following nino is the nasty one.... sadly last year was near Nino through large portions and we saw a record KW push out ( which bumped into the america's and spread up the coast adding into the blob) so I'm kinda expecting some impact from that now impacting the basin.

 

Last year was a surprise to me as I though the odds were for a more 'average' weather season but we just rinsed and repeated 13'. This time I'm even more expecting a more 'average' weather season (compared to yet another low export, cool, cloudy season).

 

But then with the Triple R appearing to want to spread up to Alaska/Beaufort will we see a high parked over the Pacific side all summer ( and the sunshine that would bring?).

 

Then we have 'volume increase'. Two points;

 

1/ a lot of the ice is in the B.Gyre and so will meet with the influx from Bering as it circulates up toward E.S.S.

 

2/ How much of this is 'rotten ice'? ( we have seen the end of season ice for years now and most is partly melted out and riddles with holes by seasons end )

 

As ever it is weather that will play the major role in how the season unfolds but the early start over on the Pacific side will not help things there as open water early in the season.

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Just guessed, and I now realise I was spot on last year!!

 

Who has gone above 6 and who below 2?

 

Send your answers on a postcard please!!i

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I went with 3.8 to 4 million. The low max, steady/above average melt so far and just that the chances of 3 cool summers in a row is unlikely, all together this increases the chances of a big melt. The extra volume may help to prevent a record minimum value, but if we get a 2007 style melt season then the little extra volume won't matter too much.

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Taking into account the latest EC32 update for June I'm going for 3.6 to 3.8 million.

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Been relatively conservative with my guesses in the last few years @ 4-4.1 million km2 in 2013 and 4.4-4.6 million km2 in 2014.
However, every now and then, Arctic sea ice takes a dive with respect to the previous years - perhaps 2015 will be one of those years?

 

3.0-3.2 million km2

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The average so far (after 16 votes) is 4.3 million km2, which is also the most popular choice with 4 votes (4.2-4.4).

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Although the melt season is still reletively young, I think this year could really be the year that could break the record by just looking at the weather set ups and the state of the ice is in already. 

 

However, at times the weather can and does balance itself out so although its more hope, if we do get something more favorable, then we may finish higher but I feel it will just be below 2007. 

 

If we get a 2007 style summer then 2012 could well be challenged but all ready, there is a lot of cause for concern. 

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5.2 to 5.4 haven't been too far off in recent years. The 2nd half of summer will see a rapid cool down

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I have been spot on and out by 0.2 these last 2 years also.

 

This year I  have dropped to 4.2 - 4.4.

 

Not catstrophic as I think that the volume wll remain the same.

 

MIA

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After 22 votes, the average remains at 4.3 million km2. I'll open up a new poll in about 2 weeks to see how opinions have changed with an extra month of data.

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