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nsrobins

Chase Day 7 - OK/KS/NE/SD

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The primary target today is still W NE, but both 4km NAM and HRRR continue to wobble run to run with the positioning of the WF and hence greatest shear and vorticity. If anything the region has drifted North up to the SD border in the last few frames which for me is a hike too far (maybe not for the road warriors currently camped in Woodward, OK). 

A combination of RAP, HRRR and a dose of luck may pin a secondary target in north and NE KS that should produce a few supercells from 21Z. There is a pool of enhanced helicity here that could represent the residual OFB and the DL (although still diffuse) does seem to punch into KS along or below the I70. By 21Z HRRR (08Z, 09Z not as good but will check the 10Z before jumping) breaks out one or two cells around Salina, KS in a high SRH environment. It's not warmfront play up in NE but it might produce and will make the trip into OK Saturday more bearable.

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It will be interesting to see what the guys do as it's a brutal drive for sure after such a long day yesterday.

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Earlier when I looked, my target area was in NE in a line fromn Chadron to North Platte - this is a vast area and I don't know how easy the roads are for chasing. And on top of that, the further north one goes the further one has to travel back for tomorrows risk. So, with that in mind, Neil's safety back up of Kansas seems sensible. My second line of initiation would be from North Platte NE to Hays KS. So I think that I will plump for Norton KS with a view to tomorrows chase which looks a classic step down type with the storms lining out.

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Same thinking here guys, NW Nebraska around the Chadron to Rapid City is just a step too far for a 5% Tornado Risk and with whats looks like a classic Outbreak tomorrow we will not be the warriors today and do all those miles up and down (Maybe I would if I was on my own with a dozen rockstars in the car)

 

So plan is to head upto the I70 Corridoor and try and pick a dryline gem North west of Hays and into SW Nebraska with a view to heading south this evening back to the I70 Corridoor ready for tomorrow.

 

5% and whats on offer just not enough for a gut wrenching 700 mile drive today, no doubt there will be warm front wedges now I have said that and anytime I don't go near a set-up this year produces so the other chasers will be mighty relieved!

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Always best to be in prime position for your favored setup Paul ! Hope yous get something decent enough today to keep the adrenaline flowing !  :good:

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Sacked today off as the risk has gone even further west, heading to Salina for the night and getting into position for tomorrow risk

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Good call. Let's hope that any residual precip and muck clears east early tomorrow leaving good skies for initiation. My favoured spot tomorrow was going to be Hays at this point. If the crap clears then you may even see a moderate risk, but I guess that is a big if!

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Good call. Let's hope that any residual precip and muck clears east early tomorrow leaving good skies for initiation. My favoured spot tomorrow was going to be Hays at this point. If the crap clears then you may even see a moderate risk, but I guess that is a big if!

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Kelley Williamson on a poss touch down on that Brownson cell.

 

there was v strong rotation a few minutes ago.

 

Edit:there was a brief touch down,blink and you miss it of sorts,wow look @ the rotation on John humphress.

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Sat on I35 N of Salina having hacked 300 miles to get here, and the only exciting thing happening is an old couple having a snooze in their car. HRRR and RAP have let me down and I could of saved the fuel and hassle but that's the chase business I suppose. The area in NE CO/SW NE was always going to be too far as I watch tor warned cells develop there.
I'm now not sure about tomorrow and where to be placed and the divergence between models in how quickly the early crud can clear and hence how soon the airmass behind it and in front of the DL destabilises will dictate whether it's a high end day or another bust. I'm going to wait half an hour (whatever good that will do) and probably decide to head back the way I came because as of now NC OK looks a decent area. I've also got a plane to California to catch early Sun am from DFW so being in Nebraska on Sat evening probably isn't a good idea.

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Kelley Williamson on a poss touch down on that Brownson cell.

 

there was v strong rotation a few minutes ago.

 

Edit:there was a brief touch down,blink and you miss it of sorts,wow look @ the rotation on John humphress.

Watching both of these streams. Looks very promising that cell. Good dipole and and easy to see the rotation

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Watching both of these streams. Looks very promising that cell. Good dipole and and easy to see the rotation

Yes chiono,the cell is T warned now.

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Looks like quite big hail on the ground from that cell on John Humphress currently

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Also looks like the cell is reorganising with a new centre towards the west.

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Looks like quite big hail on the ground from that cell on John Humphress currently

 

Got a snapshot of that,with the scud in front.

 

post-16960-0-52018700-1431723363_thumb.p

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It was really ironic (being polite) to be sat in a Kansas wheat field, heading back South after a bust this afternoon, watching the streams from chasers on the storms in Nebraska. I could be sat at home with a decent pint doing the same thing, but then I wouldn't get to see all this amazing scenery (and I've seen nearly 4000 miles of it), and I'd miss the stodgy Taco Bells and dodgy burgers.
Now in Pratt, KS. I have a feeling SC KS and NC OK could be THE place to be tomorrow if the latest NAM is to be believed. If crud clears in time, this will go MDT risk.

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SPC still have uncertainties that the Mass Crud Scenario will clear but have gone with a MODERATE risk with a large area having a 15% chance of a tornado. Going to be a busy day.. Stay safe everybody, tornadoes could be spinning up in multiple areas today if the said cloud cover can break..

post-5386-0-44730800-1431760377_thumb.pn

 

Tornado chance.

post-5386-0-41292200-1431760333_thumb.pn

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNDERWAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE   PLAINS STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND EVOLUTION OF THIS   CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY MAY HAVE   SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE OVER SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION --   AND OVERALL DEGREE OF SEVERE RISK.  WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...THE   SYNOPTIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWD   ACROSS OK INTO N TX APPEARS OTHERWISE HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE OF POTENTIAL   FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.  THEREFORE -- DESPITE THE   UNCERTAINTIES...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK APPEARS WARRANTED AT   THIS TIME.

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Yesterday looked like a bit of a let down with only momentary touchdowns - even for the enhanced area in NE. Let's hope that the moderate risk today produces a bit more (though out in open countryside of course)

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