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Paul Sherman

Chase Day 6 - Discussion (TX)

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Starting off in Coleman and knowing the risks are much further north next few days and with much more chance of severe this is a work in progress type of day and then see how far north we can get later.

 

HRRR Breaks out some nice Supercells about 20 miles from where we overnighted so might have a play with these, then bomb north and go for the Central Kansas and Nebraska Risk seeing as Saturday looks good in that same area.

 

Regards

 

Paul S

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Hi Paul. 15Z HRRR breaks out cells around Big Spring by 21Z, and a lone cell towards Lubbock off the DL.
I decided the position for Friday took priority so am currently in Lubbock and booked overnight in Amarillo. I can't decide to go for W OK Friday or the N KS/S NE target (a long drive) - both areas have pros and cons although I'm optimistic that for tomorrow we won't have a slowly clearing MCS issue this time (can't say the same for Saturday - even more tricky). I will do the haul to McCook, NE on Fri am if I think it maximises my chances on the last full day chasing this year.

Have a good day whatever you decide to do and maybe I'll see you guys for a steak in The Big Texan later. PS: The motel there is fully booked - I'm in one within stumbling distance.

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Hi Neil

 

We are going to chase today SE Of Lubbock and have already booked a Hotel in Woodward probably rolling in around midnight, then have decent options to blast up to North Platte area tomorrow or hang back on the riskier dryline play in Kansas.

 

Going to be brutal but should be worth it.

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Come on guys, time to play catch up. Multiple funnel clouds today in somerset with sitings and photos over bridgewater.

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Currently sat in Snyder, TX. Live streaming a lawn mower shop while waiting for things to get going. There's an MD issued and we're pretty much in the middle so its just a case of wait and watch now.

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The shallow troughing at about H600 due to trigger initiation is just entering SE NM now (just seen a small cell pop up near Bennett on the 128). HRRR is still all over it in developing a cluster in the next hour south of Lubbock, but I suspect the upper wind support will not arrive until dusk hence the reason I am now in Amarillo. Good luck guys and on your mega-drive in the morning.
This is not discussion for Friday but suffice to say the jury is still out on SC KS or SW NE for tomorrow.
 

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Storms popping up way to our south now. We need something to develop a little closer to be chasable, in the meantime we're at a very full J B Thomas lake.

post-1056-0-92699700-1431638294_thumb.jp

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Storms popping up way to our south now. We need something to develop a little closer to be chasable, in the meantime we're at a very full J B Thomas lake.

attachicon.gifPANO_20150514_161634.jpg

It looks gravity defying in that shot!

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Can see on water vapour imagery a shortwave trough ejecting NE across SE New Mexico and creating ascent for those storms over far west of Texas, plus you have a fairly diffuse dryline along the NM/TX border.

 

Surface winds backed SEly to the 500mb SWly flow on recents obs too - which will help with tornado potential too.

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David Drummond (tvnweather.com) is just west of Brownfield, about two miles south of 380, he is watching the storm which is throwing out bolts, there was some rotation. There are not many chasers out there at the moment, let alone streaming, hope the team can see some good stuff 

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I'm beginning to respect the HRRR ppn branch. Pretty much nailed the cells now approaching Lubbock. I will be scrutinising it closely early in the morning, as unless I'm missing something I still think SC KS is the prime play from 3pm.

Right, my 20oz ribeye has just arrived do laterz

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Good to see the streaming is holding up where you have pulled over near Brownfield. Nice lightning, hope that severe warned storm does the business for you guys.

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Late night/early morning webcam still online, with some distant lightning. You guys seem some way from your expected destination this morning! Going to be a late one by the look of it.

 

Well done guys, at least you made check in before 2am in Woodward, goal achieved. 

At the least the drive to central./ western NE doesn't look quite so far from there...

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Get up out of bed a beautiful line up is making its way towards you now looks great on radar even though I'm half asleep going to work but it looks great all the same I'd say oklahoma will be lightning up very soon too and a possible tornado close to moor.lets see what mother nature can produce.great positioning Paul a good aul Woodward 😊 have a great end to tour one....going to be busy next few days 😃

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Twas a long and sometimes hairy drive. 

 

Lubbock Texas to Woodward Oklahoma 360 miles most of which was in flooded roads, rain, lightning, side winds and hail

 

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