Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

J10

Glastonbury Festival 24th-28th June 2015

Recommended Posts

This is the thread to discuss the weather for the forthcoming Glastonbury festival.

 

I will start having a look at the charts over the next week or so, with my first indications around the weekend of the 23rd/24th May. So about a month before the gates open at Glastonbury.

 

Previous years to be honest the forecasts started too early to even get an indication of the likely weather.

 

If someone can give a rundown of past weather at Glastonbury that would be very helpful.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello J10, good to see you've started the thread for the Big G so early. I have zero expectations of anything remotely reliable/accurate so far ahead, but discussion of rough trends/longer term hints UK wide, may not do much harm ...

 

Relevant dates for this year's festival are (officially) Wednesday 24th June to Sunday 28th June 2015.

 

But some of us crew will be on site as early as the previous Sunday (21st). or thereabouts. Some of us old schoolers may become a little concerned about the runup period as well as prospects for the festival itself -- in times of site conditions.

 

All thoughts will be welcomed as they are every year, and your work is much appreciated.

 

I expect I won't be focussing too closely until we're into June. Right now I'm principally looking at weather prospects for the late May Bank Holiday weekend, which right now, on today's output (Weds 13th May), looks cool/chilly on several models, albeit not too much of a washout (yet).

 

But as we all know, changes in synoptic detail can happen at any point. whether in May. June or any month ... let's hope a less than stellar May so far may turn into a warmer June ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2014 weather was as follows (checked photos to try and remember but might not be spot on).

 

I arrived early afternoon Thursday 26th June - light rain soon after arriving with intermittent showers throughout the afternoon with one heavy one although I think the evening was ok. Ground was quite muddy in places but not terrible and some areas still fine. Temps mild.
 
Friday 27th was ok for most of the day with some sunny spells and periods of light rain. Then around 6ish it absolutely chucked it down with hail as well. Total mud bath after that. 
 
28th June Saturday. Very muddy on site but I don't think it rained again, or if it did it was not a lot. Again, mild temps. 
 
Sunday 29h June - sunny and most of the site managed to dry out ok. 
 
Monday fine and sunny

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First Monthly Analysis for June July 15.

 

Pressure

 

post-213-0-38525000-1431877868_thumb.png post-213-0-16631800-1431877863_thumb.png

 

Temps

 

post-213-0-41580700-1431877870_thumb.png post-213-0-47587400-1431877865_thumb.png

 

Rainfall

 

post-213-0-53485600-1431877869_thumb.png post-213-0-49454200-1431877864_thumb.png

 

So in summary - Temps above average, rainfall above average with Pressure around average.

 

Next week as promised a more detailed look from a variety of sources.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Climate records nearby to Glastonbury (for past 30 years M.O.) show that

 

average temps around 20C (68F) by end of June

and that it rains on average just over 8 days per month

 

30 days in June, can the rain avoid 24th -28th

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks in advance for all of your hard work here, Jackone.

 

Doubtless the rollrcoaster will be as scary as ever :-)....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Exciting times. The countdown has begun! I am loathe to say it loud for fear of jinxing it, but I have got a strong feelin in me old bones about a very good year for weather.

To add to other contributions, 2010 was definitely the last proper scorcher. Hottest festival I've been at hands down, although I wouldn't be overly keen to repeat it. Sunburn and dehydration were a problem and it was so hot it killed the daytime atmosphere a bit.

2007 was the last proper mudbath by my reckoning albeit without the risk of serious flooding (a la 2005) since drainage was improved.

Last year was a scorcher on the Wednesday. Thursday some mid afternoon showers. Friday started well and then the heavens opened for an apocalyptic thunderstorm which shut down the main stages, and after that it was wellies for the rest of the weekend before drying up on the Monday in time for everyone to leave in the sun.

This year I will be in the area from Tuesday midday and on site from first thing Wednesday morning. It's gonna be a warm one I'm tellin ya...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello Zippy. Wasn't too bad at all last year IMO.

 

Yes there were downpours and even mud, the Friday of last year. But in general, the festival endured very far from mudbath or washout conditions -- after the downpours on Friday, things really dried up on Saturday, and especially Sunday, as I recall.

 

This year, I hope J10 will start to predict even more High Pressure influenced conitions as we get into June. Next weekend I'll be going to Strawberry Fair in Cambridge (Saturday 6th June) and current modelling for the SE especially, is indicating a heatwave. 

 

Beyond that, if you look at the Model Output Discussion thread, optimists there suggest trends towards a fairly settled June. Of course there are always those who actively, and IMO overenthusistically, look for a downgrade if they can possibly find one. But I'm cautiously optimistic myself, about the current synoptic setup for early next month.

 

Look at Tamara's very technical recent post in the M.O.D. thread. Her data is looking at a more settled spell for early to mid June,,and we can only hopecast that this might be extended. . Fingers crossed!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest run now out,

 

Going by the long term models an improvement on last week, and signs that June could be better than July, so on this basis, hopefully the better weather will hold on, but a long way to go.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4888-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-2/

 

The blog next week will change and will start looking at the more medium term models such as GFS and will also start looking at NOAA anomaly charts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Following a year off, I was trying to resist this until mid June, but it's like a drug. I know for a fact that any prediction made now is near-pointless, but still I check :-(

 

As always, thanks for your efforts JackOne

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the latest EC32 update. HP to the SW so light W/NW, dry and temps above average. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JackOne, Thanks for all you do for us Glasto goers.

 

When will you be publishing your next blog? How regularly can we expect updates as we get closer to the fest?

 

Looking at the GFS charts there seems to be some promising signs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JackOne, Thanks for all you do for us Glasto goers.

 

When will you be publishing your next blog? How regularly can we expect updates as we get closer to the fest?

 

Looking at the GFS charts there seems to be some promising signs.

There will be more frequent updates as we move closer to the festival, and the charts mean a bit more.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php looks a but more promising for High Pressure controlled weather in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day time frame.

 

A trend emerging perhaps ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the latest EC32 update and the  ECM ens ext. anomalies everything looks on track for a fine three days although obviously I bow to J10's opinion

Both have HP centred to the SW ridging over the UK with some height rises also in Scandinavia. Thus very light winds mainly from the W/NW and believe it or not temps above average.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As crew, we'll be onsite early (Sun 21st June and leaving late (Tues 30th June) but for now, there's every possibility that conditions should remain benign throughout.

 

J10 said at the end of his most recent blog :

 

 However not the worst charts ever seen in the run up to Glastonbury. 

 

which as things appear at the moment, looks a tad overmodest to me!. So long as complications don't emerge (please not!), there's a fair chance this year might resemble 2010 in niceness ...

 

.... or (for oldschoolers) 1994 and 1995!

 

<prays that current models/forecasts hold and don't downgrade>

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People following just this thread may like Gibby's latest thoughts (8 am, Friday 12th June) in the Model Output Discussion thread :

 

MY THOUGHTS While I remain optimistic about the overall pattern of the weather across the UK over the coming weeks as usual some caveats have developed in the last 24 hours which may limit the improvements I predicted yesterday at least for a time, The thundery trough of the weekend is still predicted to be out of the way by Monday with some dry and bright conditions developing for several days with warming days but chilly nights again for a time. By midweek winds will blow from the West across the UK and an incursion of a trough up to the NW looks like it could bring a cloudier and damper phase to the North and generally weaken good conditions in the South too. It does look a short lived down turn though as High pressure is then shown by most models to regain control across the UK with fine and warm conditions developing for all by and over next weekend and into week 2. The main difference between yesterdays and todays output is an underlying problem we have had for ages now in that we cannot seem to get High pressure in exactly the right place with the centre always wanting to position just to the West and SW rather than over the UK. These small synoptical differences can and do have radical surface differences in conditions across the British Isles which on this occasion look like reserving the very best of conditions across the South and West of the UK. Nevertheless there remains a lot of reason for optimism and all areas should enjoy some fine and warm conditions still across the next few weeks though we may be chasing areas of cloud in a West or NW breeze at times across the North and East.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Next blog update will be tomorrow evening, after the GFS 12Hz comes out and thereafter the updates will be more frequent.

 

Unless the charts change tomorrow, it seems likely there will be a very promising update.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Next blog update will be tomorrow evening, after the GFS 12Hz comes out and thereafter the updates will be more frequent.

 

Unless the charts change tomorrow, it seems likely there will be a very promising update.....

be carefull lad !!!!.:)..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...