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nick sussex

EU Referendum

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Re the COMRES poll they also use a different turnout model and use the last GE and weight the results to the demographic turnout then. If you add that turnout model Remain have a 16 point lead with 58 versus 42. I that we won't find out till t think this is one of those unknownshe vote itself; The reason for that difference is that it increases especially the AB turnout and lowers the DE.

:nea:I'm sort of fed up reading all these projections. The constant publishing of polls affects some, maybe, "don't know "voters, or, is just an academic exercise. The debate should sway voters - not polls.

The polls also influence the various parties to adjust their propaganda according to what they perceive is there target audience. 

My view is that polling should be restricted.

 

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3 minutes ago, ciel said:

:nea:I'm sort of fed up reading all these projections. The constant publishing of polls affects some, maybe, "don't know "voters, or, is just an academic exercise. The debate should sway voters - not polls.

The polls also influence the various parties to adjust their propaganda according to what they perceive is there target audience.

My view is that polling should be restricted.

 

What happened to my quote it looks like I was drinking at the end? lol

As we saw during the last GE the polls made a big difference to how the campaign was run so yes I agree this is likely to effect things, I fear that it might lead Remain to think that just putting the negatives of leaving will win the vote, which it may do but I'd also like to see more of the positives put forward, especially things that would appeal to younger voters. I also think that there should be a ban on any polling results for the last few days.. Although theres been some decent phone polls for Remain we're still two months out from the vote and theres still the continued differences between phone and online results.

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38 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

And yet MIke, you took the leap to buy a property in France!!!.

It looks as though you have suddenly become risk averse!.

I have a relative and an ex-next door neighbour who have sold up and moved to France.

I had a discussion with the both of them along the lines of what would happen to their UK pension, what effect would currency fluctuation have on them, what would happen if one of them dies and they cannot get back to the UK?.

These points (and the one about a BRexit) should have been recognised by yourself before you made the leap.

You made it for purely for your own lifestyle point of view. You cannot expect the people of the UK to vote to keep you in your current life-style, just because you fancied it at the time!.

I for one would not and do not feel sorry for you. You made your bed in the full knowledge of what risks there were out in the future.

So much more important to me is what is going on in my backyard..........

Vis the NHS and schools.

Approximately 100,000 children this year will not get their school of choice. 25,000 children will not get one of their  top 3 places. Many boroughs in the country are struggling with overlarge classes. In quite a few places more than 50% of children are not getting any of their school of choice.

We are expecting a further 200,000 more immigrants in the next 12 months. 1 million by 2020 and 4 million (according to the Treasury report) by 2030. Most of them are young and of child bearing age. We already have the fastest growing birth population in any european country, due in the main to the influx of immigrants in the last 15 years..

Now I think that this is due to the various governments (who even now do not recognise a problem!). But how does one manage an economy when we have no real control of our immigration?

To my way of thinking this will not happen within the EC. We will be given no assistance (in any way)  by the EU for this problem.

Sorry but these issues are more important to me than that you may have made an incorrect decision in the past.

The only way we can regain some control is by voting 'out'. If we have to lose 1% of out GDP to do this in the next 2 years then I consider it will be worth it.

As for the future economic figures - no one has told me how we can turnround the current economic trend of the UK selling more goods and services to the world than to the really struggling EC. It is a trend that started 5 years ago and I see no answer to this problem from  the Europhiles.( And this despite the European trading restrictions with the rest of the world).  Any reply I have seen from Europhiles suggests 'high tech' - , but wont we be able to sell it better worldwide than just to the EU?

You talk of 'outers' not having a plan. But what will be the EU economic future in 5 years? Do you really think it will be a 'powerhouse'  whilst all the structural problems remain. I can only see Greece and co getting more and more into the mire.

The are major structural problems in the EC and the UK. Despite  what you say I cannot see the UK being able to fix (or even influencing) the EU problems. I do believe that we can influence the UK issues at the next election if I vote for Brexit.

MIA.

1) It was not such a risk as you think MIA - property in France is much cheaper than in the UK, besides which I did not burn any bridges and the upkeep of the French house is financed by holiday lettings, so we are not in the same position as your ex next door neighbour.

2) I am not expecting people in the UK to vote for the preservation of my life style - all things being equal it should continue in the same manner - I have already taken the precaution of investing in solar power (water heating in France and PV solar panels in the UK) together with full air to air heat pumps in France and partial in the UK as something of a protection against rising fuel costs.

3) If we are talking about EU migration to the UK it has already been shown that these people overall are of benefit to the UK economy. Migration from outside the UK can sometimes be different - the newer ones cost, yet I dare say that the older ones who are already established here also pay there own way. In any case we still have 'closed borders' for those wishing to enter from outside the EU.  It is not the fault of the EU that our border police are currently described as unfit for purpose and the government is planning to make reductions to this in the foreseeable future.

4) Various governments have consistently under invested in our infra structure, probably for most of my life - I suspect that part of this is due to the wish of them wishing to bribe the public into re-electing them at subsequent GE's rather than developing long term plans for improvement - again it is our own domestic policies at fault not the EU.

5) If France can still continue to build many new roads, buildings and factories, generally continue to invest in its own infra structure even under the leadership of M François Hollande, reputably the worst president of the 5em Republic, where are we going wrong? And I still see people frequenting the bars and restaurants. Not only that France also has an immigration problem, plus have the wannabe in UK migrants around the Calais area.

6) The Brexits are so critical of the part of the treasury report to 2030 in  respect of its predicted economic outlook, yet they take fully on board a predicted influx of 4 million extra migrants by then - it seems to me that you are accepting the parts which suit your purpose whilst ignoring or shouting down the parts which do not. In any case we have absolutely no way of knowing how many people will decide to come to the UK.

7) Overall the economy of the EU has turned the corner and is making progress albeit at a slower rate than it would have liked and there are still economic problems with Greece, Italy and Portugal which will take somewhat longer to sort out. I agree that the EU has gone through a bad patch in what was a global economic crisis and some parts are recovering faster than others but I am sure it is working to correct these because the last thing it wants is for the system to fail.

8/ You cannot be sure that GDP will only drop by 1% in the next year or 2 - each year that the GDP is in negative territory it will be compounded to a higher figure and that will also be time lost in getting our economy right. It is too big a risk especially when there are no plans in existence for countering this. As for selling world wide we don't know what tariffs will be imposed by others - it is only natural that other nations will look for their cheaper options and with our relatively high labour costs we may not be able to fulfil this.

9) I don't see the EU becoming a power house in 5 years, it will take longer but it does have the potential to do so and I can visualise the reminder of the EU being in the restaurant have slap ups meals whilst we are outside looking enviously on through the window.

10) To stay or leave is in fact a long term decision but I get the impression that the exiteers wish to leave for short term expediency which I suspect will be short lived. I have explained the reasons why in previous posts.

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This will tip a few DK's onto the Brexit side of the fence for certain...

Turkey edges closer to EU visa-free travel:

20 April 2016 - The European Commission said on Wednesday (20 April) it would propose to give visa-free access to the passport-free Schengen area to Turkey on 4 May, if Ankara fulfills all the necessary benchmarks.

In its first assessment of the progress made under the EU-Turkey deal aimed at returning migrants from Greece, the EU commission said it would present its third report on the progress made by Turkey to fulfill requirements on 4 May, and could propose to grant visa-free travel.

It means Turkey would have to fulfill all the 72 criteria for visa-free travel for its citizens within two weeks before the Commission can make such a proposal.

Under the deal, the EU has committed to accelerate the visa liberalisation process in exchange for Turkey’s help to stop the flow of migrants and refugees into Europe.

EU leaders pledged to aim at lifting the visa requirements for Turkish citizens at the latest by the end of June 2016 if all the benchmarks are met.

At the time of the last progress report in March, Turkey had lived up to 35 requirements, and, EU officials said, since then, more of them have been settled.

EU migration commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos told press Wednesday if the work continues at its current pace, most benchmarks will be met.

“So far it goes well,” he said.

EU commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said on Tuesday in a speech that the requirements for Turkey will not be watered down.

Juncker’s statement came a day after Turkish prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Turkey would no longer honour the EU-Turkey accord if the EU failed to ease visa requirements by June.

Juncker and Davutoglu met privately on Tuesday, where, EU officials said, the EU commission chief passed on a list of measures still needed to be sorted out by Ankara. According to officials, Davutoglu seemed confident they can deliver on time.

Outstanding requirements are for example the issuing of passports that include the fingerprints of the document holder (biometric passports), allowing visa-free access Turkey for all EU citizens, engaging in police and judicial cooperation in criminal matters with EU countries, officials pointed out.
Political consensus needed

After the commission’s proposal the council of EU member states and the European Parliament still need to give their consent to the visa-free regime.

For years, several EU countries, such as France and Germany, have been reluctant to allow visa-free travel for the 75 million Turkish citizens, fearing increased migration.

But with the pledge made by EU leaders in March to sign off the visa liberalisation if Turkey fulfills the technical requirements, officials say member states will have to agree.

“Visa liberalisation for Turkey is something that was envisaged a year and a half from now, it was a conscious decision taken by the EU side to bring the date closer,” said one EU official, adding that it will be nevertheless a difficult political exercise.


“It’s not a mathematical exercise, where we just tick the boxes,” he added.

But major reservations remain.

“The 72 criteria are not enough, there still needs to be a political consensus among the 28 member states,” another EU official insisted.
Progress

Since the deal came into force on 20 March, so far 325 irregular migrants arriving to Greece have been returned to Turkey, but most of them have not requested asylum.

On concerns that Greek authorities will not be able to cope with processing the asylum requests fast enough to avoid a build-up on the islands, Avramopoulos said: “We are at the beginning of the process.”

“Greek authorities on the ground doing exactly this, to avoid this phenomenon,” he added.

The commission’s report said Greece set up accelerated procedures for the processing of asylum claims.

So far 103 Syrian refugees have been resettled to the EU directly from Turkey, according to the report.


 

Edited by coldcomfort
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10 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

And yet MIke, you took the leap to buy a property in France!!!.

It looks as though you have suddenly become risk averse!.

I have a relative and an ex-next door neighbour who have sold up and moved to France.

I had a discussion with the both of them along the lines of what would happen to their UK pension, what effect would currency fluctuation have on them, what would happen if one of them dies and they cannot get back to the UK?.

These points (and the one about a BRexit) should have been recognised by yourself before you made the leap.

You made it for purely for your own lifestyle point of view. You cannot expect the people of the UK to vote to keep you in your current life-style, just because you fancied it at the time!.

I for one would not and do not feel sorry for you. You made your bed in the full knowledge of what risks there were out in the future.

So much more important to me is what is going on in my backyard..........

Vis the NHS and schools.

Approximately 100,000 children this year will not get their school of choice. 25,000 children will not get one of their  top 3 places. Many boroughs in the country are struggling with overlarge classes. In quite a few places more than 50% of children are not getting any of their school of choice.

We are expecting a further 200,000 more immigrants in the next 12 months. 1 million by 2020 and 4 million (according to the Treasury report) by 2030. Most of them are young and of child bearing age. We already have the fastest growing birth population in any european country, due in the main to the influx of immigrants in the last 15 years..

Now I think that this is due to the various governments (who even now do not recognise a problem!). But how does one manage an economy when we have no real control of our immigration?

To my way of thinking this will not happen within the EC. We will be given no assistance (in any way)  by the EU for this problem.

Sorry but these issues are more important to me than that you may have made an incorrect decision in the past.

The only way we can regain some control is by voting 'out'. If we have to lose 1% of out GDP to do this in the next 2 years then I consider it will be worth it.

As for the future economic figures - no one has told me how we can turnround the current economic trend of the UK selling more goods and services to the world than to the really struggling EC. It is a trend that started 5 years ago and I see no answer to this problem from  the Europhiles.( And this despite the European trading restrictions with the rest of the world).  Any reply I have seen from Europhiles suggests 'high tech' - , but wont we be able to sell it better worldwide than just to the EU?

You talk of 'outers' not having a plan. But what will be the EU economic future in 5 years? Do you really think it will be a 'powerhouse'  whilst all the structural problems remain. I can only see Greece and co getting more and more into the mire.

The are major structural problems in the EC and the UK. Despite  what you say I cannot see the UK being able to fix (or even influencing) the EU problems. I do believe that we can influence the UK issues at the next election if I vote for Brexit.

MIA.

I don't think anyone would think of foreseeing a weak prime minister giving into the back benches of his party, agreeing to this referendum that is a serious mistake. I do feel sorry for all ex pats in Europe. When they moved there, they had a right to and were welcomed, and it wasn't a risk. How the hell would they know that suddenly this movement would happen. A lot moved there before everyone seemed to be calling for this vote. Also not everyone called for it anyway. 

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10 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Perhaps Remain should just send a copy of this hearing to every household, by any stretch this was a  complete car crash to add to the Boris Johnson car wreck a few weeks back. If you're an Outer best pour yourself a stiff drink before reading this from the Guardian, and its there for all to see online.

“Can you go back to your seat please?” asked Andrew Tyrie, chair of the Treasury select committee as Dominic Cummings hovered menacingly over his shoulder.

Cummings, Vote Leave’s campaign director, had no intention of going anywhere. Going back to his seat would be a victory for the cesspit of Brussels. Instead he stood over Tyrie, pointing at his phone.

“I’ve got another meeting at four, so I’ll have to be out of here before that,” Cummings insisted, sticking it to the Man.

“I don’t think you’ve got the hang of these proceedings,” Tyrie replied evenly. “We ask the questions and you stay and answer them.”

“I’m just telling you when I’ll be leaving.”

“In that case you’ll be recalled.”

“Fine by me.”

Cummings sloped slowly back to the other side of the committee room and stood beside his chair.

“Will you sit down, please?” Tyrie persisted.

“I’m just turning off my phone,” Cummings said petulantly. “You wouldn’t want my phone to go off, would you?”

Only when Cummings was certain he had got the backs up of everyone in the room, did he eventually slump into his seat like a moody adolescent. Cummings had a reputation to maintain. He hadn’t yet found anyone he couldn’t pick a fight with – any mirror would do – and he didn’t intend to start now.

“Can we talk about some of Vote Leave’s figures?” said Tyrie, once Cummings was finally in place.

As it happened, we couldn’t. We could talk about why the EU was the most corrupt organisation on Earth, we could talk about why Boris Johnson and Michael Gove weren’t actually members of the establishment, we could talk about why everyone in the Treasury and the Bank of England were complete morons, we could talk about all sort of secret threats that secret people were making about secret things that he would have to keep secret, but talking figures wasn’t on the table.

“I don’t think it’s Vote Leave’s job to provide figures,” Cummings announced triumphantly, his eyes swivelling manically.

“But Vote Leave quotes numerous figures on its website,” said Tyrie, “Most of them misleading or inaccurate.”

“Accuracy is for snake-oil pussies,” Cummings hissed under his breath. “And besides, I’ve got a really bad memory.”

“Is it not true that you only provide the costs of the EU and none of the benefits? You make the same mistake as Boris Johnson. You don’t read carefully enough. Wouldn’t it have been useful to have done some of the maths.”

“It’s just a matter of a few decimal points,” Cummings said.

Tyrie blinked. Earlier on he had been prepared to accept he might have been dealing with an idiot savant. It only now dawned on him that he was just dealing with an idiot complete.

“There are quite a lot of decimal points between £33bn and £16bn,” he pointed out.

“When you’re sitting in your slippers chatting to Mrs Tyrie...” Cummings diverged, worried that he had not yet been sufficiently offensive.

At this point several members of the committee started wondering if there was a doctor on call nearby, but Cummings was only just warming up. No, he couldn’t confirm whether a Vote Leave advert had been deliberately designed to look like an NHS brochure. No, he couldn’t confirm Britain was in the single market, because we definitely weren’t even though we definitely were. No he couldn’t confirm why Vote Leave was claiming that intra EU trade had fallen since 1999 when official figures showed it had actually gone up by 39%.

So it went on. No, he couldn’t confirm when Vote Leave would make the macro-economic case for Brexit because these figures were obviously top secret and if he were to make them public then they wouldn’t be secret any more. No, he couldn’t name the Goldman Sachs operatives who had bribed everyone in Brussels, because he’d be killed. No, he couldn’t name any of of the umpteen ambassadors who had told him at secret trysts that they really hated the EU because if he did they would all just say he was crazy.

“You’re not wrong there,” Labour’s Rachel Reeves observed drily, before leaving to lie down in dark corner.

“For someone who claims to want to give sovereignty back to the British parliament you don’t seem to have much respect for the sovereignty of this committee,” Labour’s Helen Goodman pointed out.

“I want my own special sovereignty,” Cummings shrugged, his look of slight sheepishness suggesting there might be a smidgeon of rationality lurking somewhere in his brain.

The two Tory pro-Brexit MPs, Jacob Rees-Moog and Steve Baker, looked on embarrassed. One appearance by Cummings would have done more for the Remain cause than any number of speeches from David Cameron. They did their best to tee their man up with a few easy questions, much like members of a parole board trying to find some good in a prisoner who has managed for the first time to get through an entire group therapy session without assaulting anyone, but Cummings was much too far gone.

Is Cummings a net-weather member?:rofl:

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Is Cummings a net-weather member?:rofl:

lol, I hope not, the m ore I see of his character, the more I don't like it.

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2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I don't think anyone would think of foreseeing a weak prime minister giving into the back benches of his party, agreeing to this referendum that is a serious mistake. I do feel sorry for all ex pats in Europe. When they moved there, they had a right to and were welcomed, and it wasn't a risk. How the hell would they know that suddenly this movement would happen. A lot moved there before everyone seemed to be calling for this vote. Also not everyone called for it anyway. 

We are voting to leave the EU, not voting to leave Europe, or indeed the planet earth. IF we do ultimately vote for a Brexit, nothing is going to stop Brits emigrating to Europe, or Europeans emigrating to Britain, all that will happen is both side will enjoy a greater degree of 'control' over any movements between us.  This will then allow more space to be allocated to those wishing to come here from outside the EU, many of whom have the kind of skillsets we desperately need, but we are currently having to refuse them entry in favour of eastern European pickpocketing gangs for instance. This is the absurdity of the whole situation and one that rarely gets highlighted, as it's much easier just to call those of us holding these views all the usual names. 

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1 hour ago, coldcomfort said:

This will tip a few DK's onto the Brexit side of the fence for certain...

Turkey edges closer to EU visa-free travel:

20 April 2016 - The European Commission said on Wednesday (20 April) it would propose to give visa-free access to the passport-free Schengen area to Turkey on 4 May, if Ankara fulfills all the necessary benchmarks.

In its first assessment of the progress made under the EU-Turkey deal aimed at returning migrants from Greece, the EU commission said it would present its third report on the progress made by Turkey to fulfill requirements on 4 May, and could propose to grant visa-free travel.

It means Turkey would have to fulfill all the 72 criteria for visa-free travel for its citizens within two weeks before the Commission can make such a proposal.

Under the deal, the EU has committed to accelerate the visa liberalisation process in exchange for Turkey’s help to stop the flow of migrants and refugees into Europe.

EU leaders pledged to aim at lifting the visa requirements for Turkish citizens at the latest by the end of June 2016 if all the benchmarks are met.

At the time of the last progress report in March, Turkey had lived up to 35 requirements, and, EU officials said, since then, more of them have been settled.

EU migration commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos told press Wednesday if the work continues at its current pace, most benchmarks will be met.

“So far it goes well,” he said.

EU commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said on Tuesday in a speech that the requirements for Turkey will not be watered down.

Juncker’s statement came a day after Turkish prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Turkey would no longer honour the EU-Turkey accord if the EU failed to ease visa requirements by June.

Juncker and Davutoglu met privately on Tuesday, where, EU officials said, the EU commission chief passed on a list of measures still needed to be sorted out by Ankara. According to officials, Davutoglu seemed confident they can deliver on time.

Outstanding requirements are for example the issuing of passports that include the fingerprints of the document holder (biometric passports), allowing visa-free access Turkey for all EU citizens, engaging in police and judicial cooperation in criminal matters with EU countries, officials pointed out.
Political consensus needed

After the commission’s proposal the council of EU member states and the European Parliament still need to give their consent to the visa-free regime.

For years, several EU countries, such as France and Germany, have been reluctant to allow visa-free travel for the 75 million Turkish citizens, fearing increased migration.

But with the pledge made by EU leaders in March to sign off the visa liberalisation if Turkey fulfills the technical requirements, officials say member states will have to agree.

“Visa liberalisation for Turkey is something that was envisaged a year and a half from now, it was a conscious decision taken by the EU side to bring the date closer,” said one EU official, adding that it will be nevertheless a difficult political exercise.


“It’s not a mathematical exercise, where we just tick the boxes,” he added.

But major reservations remain.

“The 72 criteria are not enough, there still needs to be a political consensus among the 28 member states,” another EU official insisted.
Progress

Since the deal came into force on 20 March, so far 325 irregular migrants arriving to Greece have been returned to Turkey, but most of them have not requested asylum.

On concerns that Greek authorities will not be able to cope with processing the asylum requests fast enough to avoid a build-up on the islands, Avramopoulos said: “We are at the beginning of the process.”

“Greek authorities on the ground doing exactly this, to avoid this phenomenon,” he added.

The commission’s report said Greece set up accelerated procedures for the processing of asylum claims.

So far 103 Syrian refugees have been resettled to the EU directly from Turkey, according to the report.


 

 You can differentiate between EU free visa travel, and EU right to reside, right? What's being agreed here is that Turkish people can visit EU states for vacation, or business meetings, not for right to remain in those EU countries. This ariticle is intentionally misleading somehow, and doesn't tell the real situation. To say about refugees also.. they have been dealt around EU regardless of EU immigration rules. 

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47 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

We are voting to leave the EU, not voting to leave Europe, or indeed the planet earth. IF we do ultimately vote for a Brexit, nothing is going to stop Brits emigrating to Europe, or Europeans emigrating to Britain, all that will happen is both side will enjoy a greater degree of 'control' over any movements between us.  This will then allow more space to be allocated to those wishing to come here from outside the EU, many of whom have the kind of skillsets we desperately need, but we are currently having to refuse them entry in favour of eastern European pickpocketing gangs for instance. This is the absurdity of the whole situation and one that rarely gets highlighted, as it's much easier just to call those of us holding these views all the usual names. 

Nothing will stop Brits emigrating to Europe, if they can afford the visa costs, and be able to meet the restrictions of the host country. Getting right to remain in a country that requires visas is not as easy as you think... certainly the majority of people on here would struggle to meet the conditions required to obtain a visa from a none EU member state, so you should rethink that idea.

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UK citizens (and much of the western world) get visa-free travel to the US. That's essentially what Turkey will get to the EU. A total non-story.

Edited by Nick L
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12 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

And yet MIke, you took the leap to buy a property in France!!!.

It looks as though you have suddenly become risk averse!.

I have a relative and an ex-next door neighbour who have sold up and moved to France.

I had a discussion with the both of them along the lines of what would happen to their UK pension, what effect would currency fluctuation have on them, what would happen if one of them dies and they cannot get back to the UK?.

These points (and the one about a BRexit) should have been recognised by yourself before you made the leap.

You made it for purely for your own lifestyle point of view. You cannot expect the people of the UK to vote to keep you in your current life-style, just because you fancied it at the time!.

I for one would not and do not feel sorry for you. You made your bed in the full knowledge of what risks there were out in the future.

So much more important to me is what is going on in my backyard..........

Vis the NHS and schools.

Approximately 100,000 children this year will not get their school of choice. 25,000 children will not get one of their  top 3 places. Many boroughs in the country are struggling with overlarge classes. In quite a few places more than 50% of children are not getting any of their school of choice.

We are expecting a further 200,000 more immigrants in the next 12 months. 1 million by 2020 and 4 million (according to the Treasury report) by 2030. Most of them are young and of child bearing age. We already have the fastest growing birth population in any european country, due in the main to the influx of immigrants in the last 15 years..

Now I think that this is due to the various governments (who even now do not recognise a problem!). But how does one manage an economy when we have no real control of our immigration?

To my way of thinking this will not happen within the EC. We will be given no assistance (in any way)  by the EU for this problem.

Sorry but these issues are more important to me than that you may have made an incorrect decision in the past.

The only way we can regain some control is by voting 'out'. If we have to lose 1% of out GDP to do this in the next 2 years then I consider it will be worth it.

As for the future economic figures - no one has told me how we can turnround the current economic trend of the UK selling more goods and services to the world than to the really struggling EC. It is a trend that started 5 years ago and I see no answer to this problem from  the Europhiles.( And this despite the European trading restrictions with the rest of the world).  Any reply I have seen from Europhiles suggests 'high tech' - , but wont we be able to sell it better worldwide than just to the EU?

You talk of 'outers' not having a plan. But what will be the EU economic future in 5 years? Do you really think it will be a 'powerhouse'  whilst all the structural problems remain. I can only see Greece and co getting more and more into the mire.

The are major structural problems in the EC and the UK. Despite  what you say I cannot see the UK being able to fix (or even influencing) the EU problems. I do believe that we can influence the UK issues at the next election if I vote for Brexit.

MIA.

Exactly, brilliant observation exceptionally well put.  My aunt and uncle sold up and moved to Lanzarote some years ago.  They know they may have to move back home if we vote to leave the EU.  His was a "better" life style choice and he could afford to do it.  

Fortunately  he cannot vote in the EU referendum as an ex-pat.  If he lived in this country he would vote out........ 

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43 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Nothing will stop Brits emigrating to Europe, if they can afford the visa costs, and be able to meet the restrictions of the host country. Getting right to remain in a country that requires visas is not as easy as you think... certainly the majority of people on here would struggle to meet the conditions required to obtain a visa from a none EU member state, so you should rethink that idea.

How can you possibly know what conditions will need to be met after a Brexit? Usual scaremongering, nothing more, nothing less.

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Good to see polls swinging towards remain in the last couple of days anyway. People are realising that the status quo is a lot safer than a leap into the dark. The leave campaign are wasting opportunities to actually clarify any plan they might have if we leave.

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2 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

How can you possibly know what conditions will need to be met after a Brexit? Usual scaremongering, nothing more, nothing less.

There will be 27 different states all of which will be entitled to treat us as aliens - no doubt they will have different domestic policies as to how we are treated - we don't know what they will be at this stage but one thing we can say is that we will not have the same rights of EU citizens as we do now.

Further with a lower value pound it is going to be more difficult for retirees relying on a fixed sterling income to make ends meet - I explained this in an earlier post.

How is it that when we refer to the possible financial outcome, a lot of which can be worked out by using common sense it is scaremongering yet when your refer to hordes of migrants, criminals and terrorists (which incidentally we already have) it is not?

A large part of the Brexit campaign so far has been designed to frighten us into thinking that we are going to find the migrant bogeymen under our beds whilst offering an unrealistic life of utopia.

 

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12 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Good to see polls swinging towards remain in the last couple of days anyway. People are realising that the status quo is a lot safer than a leap into the dark. The leave campaign are wasting opportunities to actually clarify any plan they might have if we leave.

That's all I want to see, what the plan is for exit, and then I'll be able to decide if it's viable or not. At the moment we have a leap into the dark, and we do not know how deep the bottom is. We can't see it and can not know if it's safe to jump.

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I was actually contacted yesterday by phone on whether id be voting in or out in the latest eu ref  and if so how would I be voting   The main catch with me though was the lady who asked me had very much a foreign accent. although it didn't alter my answer could some people be off put by this and vote in a way as to not offend. Maybe this is why there is a difference with online and phone polls?

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24 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Good to see polls swinging towards remain in the last couple of days anyway. People are realising that the status quo is a lot safer than a leap into the dark. The leave campaign are wasting opportunities to actually clarify any plan they might have if we leave.

That's very true, although there is a nagging, slightly annoying doubt ringing in my ears of late. 

If brexit will invariably bring such a disaster economically, as we're lead to believe. Why agree to have a referendum, in fact why go to the pains of a renegotiation and wait for the results of that before even deciding whether or not to campaign to remain or not, as David Cameron and his allies have done? It makes zero sense to me that the prime minister would on one hand seek to renegotiate on the basis that he'll campaign to leave if he didn't get what he wanted, and to then suggest that the UK will implode should it now decide to leave. 

In fairness that alone won't stop me voting to remain, but if nothing else it shows up how ridiculous all this politicking is. 

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9 minutes ago, Paul said:

That's very true, although there is a nagging, slightly annoying doubt ringing in my ears of late. 

If brexit will invariably bring such a disaster economically, as we're lead to believe. Why agree to have a referendum, in fact why go to the pains of a renegotiation and wait for the results of that before even deciding whether or not to campaign to remain or not, as David Cameron and his allies have done? It makes zero sense to me that the prime minister would on one hand seek to renegotiate on the basis that he'll campaign to leave if he didn't get what he wanted, and to then suggest that the UK will implode should it now decide to leave. 

In fairness that alone won't stop me voting to remain, but if nothing else it shows up how ridiculous all this politicking is. 

I think it was more a desperate attempt to appease the kippers and keep the Tories in power.

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8 minutes ago, Paul said:

That's very true, although there is a nagging, slightly annoying doubt ringing in my ears of late. 

If brexit will invariably bring such a disaster economically, as we're lead to believe. Why agree to have a referendum, in fact why go to the pains of a renegotiation and wait for the results of that before even deciding whether or not to campaign to remain or not, as David Cameron and his allies have done? It makes zero sense to me that the prime minister would on one hand seek to renegotiate on the basis that he'll campaign to leave if he didn't get what he wanted, and to then suggest that the UK will implode should it now decide to leave. 

In fairness that alone won't stop me voting to remain, but if nothing else it shows up how ridiculous all this politicking is. 

Good point however   Cameron I believe never had a desire to leave the eu   he could have gone to that meeting prior to the ref and only been offered a bag of crisps  and he would still have said he has got a good deal   he was never going to campaign for a brexit.

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5 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I think it was more a desperate attempt to appease the kippers and keep the Tories in power.

 

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Good point however   Cameron I believe never had a desire to leave the eu   he could have gone to that meeting prior to the ref and only been offered a bag of crisps  and he would still have said he has got a good deal   he was never going to campaign for a brexit.

Agree twice, but then why, if you genuinely believe leaving the EU would be a disaster for the country, would you as pm/the governing party risk a public vote. Surely you'd hope the pm would always act in what he believed was the country's best interests, which in this instance he obviously can't have. Unless of course the doom stories are just scaremongering as the out camp would have you believe. Either way though it's a mess!

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4 minutes ago, Paul said:

 

Agree twice, but then why, if you genuinely believe leaving the EU would be a disaster for the country, would you as pm/the governing party risk a public vote. Surely you'd hope the pm would always act in what he believed was the country's best interests, which in this instance he obviously can't have. Unless of course the doom stories are just scaremongering as the out camp would have you believe. Either way though it's a mess!

I don't think anyone really knows what will happen if we vote leave - and that's what scares me about it all. If those advocating change can't even tell us, then who in their right mind would vote to leave?

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51 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

How can you possibly know what conditions will need to be met after a Brexit? Usual scaremongering, nothing more, nothing less.

In my situation I've done a lot of research into visas and emigration in none - EU countries. In all of them the visa costs are in the thousands .. in most of them you have to take naturalization tests and you are required to speak the language before you can enter for work. It's common sense that if you are not in the EU or the EEC, then European countries would enforce something similar on citizens of the United Kingdom. That's almost certain in most cases. 

Edited by SP1986
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4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I don't think anyone really knows what will happen if we vote leave - and that's what scares me about it all. If those advocating change can't even tell us, then who in their right mind would vote to leave?

well as reports show  Usaully working class people  in large innercity areas are more likely to vote out I presume because they don't see any advantage of being in the eu   all they can see is the negative impacts of eu nationals coming into the country and I their opinion costing them money and opportunities

Edited by weirpig
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44 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Good to see polls swinging towards remain in the last couple of days anyway. People are realising that the status quo is a lot safer than a leap into the dark. The leave campaign are wasting opportunities to actually clarify any plan they might have if we leave.

I don't believe that the actually have a plan, Nick: from what I've gleaned (from here, from leaflets and from TV/radio appearances) the entire out campaign is based on wishful thinking, a belief that the 'grass is always greener', and the forlorn hope that repeating outright lies, until the cows come home, will bring folks round to their way of thinking?

Thankfully, if the polls are anything to go by, even repeated lies don't seem to be working!:D

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