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nick sussex

EU Referendum

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More from Yougov.

They are an online poll which tends to show neck and neck. 38 leave vs 37 remain in this case. But when they asked people lots of related questions, then asked this at the end, they got the below (in brackets is change from initial remain / leave question):

And taking everything into account, what do you think would be the SAFER course of action – remaining in the European Union or leaving the European Union?
43(+6)% Remain
31(-7)% Leave

Quote

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/24/yougov-view-eu-referendum-polling/

The YouGov view: Leave is ahead but fundamentals favour Remain

 

Edited by scottish skier

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9 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Don't know about that, they might be preferable to Comrade Corbyn,   at least  they give the impression of believing in this country, not that he has a cats chance in hell of ever becoming Prime Minister anyway. Michael Foot was the same , he had a good hiding in the 83 election and was consigned to the dustbin of history .

In my opinion, neither better nor worse...My point is that, under a PR system, all politicians will need do more than simply turn-up to get elected? How on earth can 37% (35% in Blair's case) of the popular vote ever be construed as a 'mandate'; let alone a victory of ideas?

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

In my opinion, neither better nor worse...My point is that, under a PR system, all politicians will need do more than simply turn-up to get elected? How on earth can 37% (35% in Blair's case) of the popular vote ever be construed as a 'mandate'; let alone a victory of ideas?

Tend to agree with you there, I must admit that with this First Past The Post System , you do seem to get the extreme version of one or the other.

Bl...dy hell we actually agreed on something:)

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Its probably a little unfair on the Out campaign that they're being asked to state what the UK would look like on an EU exit when they simply can't answer that question. Its similar to the Scottish referendum because you can't answer fully questions although that did have an advantage of Holyrood and voters had already seen that work well.

However that question will be a problem for the Out campaign because you're being asked for clarification but you can't really give it. And then the In campaign can then just push possible models like Norway and Switzerland as being a possible end game, and of course  the narrative of even less power, still having to pay into the EU, still having freedom of movement suddenly becomes a choice that looks even worse than the current situation.

Its always the uphill struggle for the change vote because for people where immigration isn't such a big issue why on earth would they take that leap in the dark with no real reward?

Droning on about sovereignty, taking back control will have little impact on voters choice especially when your faced with an electorate who are cynical and not really going to be swept away on a tide of nationalistic fervour.

We haven't even reached the part of the debate where more issues will start being highlighted. I've yet to see much made of the issue of workers rights.

Of course the Tories can't run an In campaign on workers rights, effectively they'll be saying vote In or we might dilute these!

A lot of people that voted in the GE did not vote for the Tories, the message to these, do you trust the Tories on workers rights?

 

 

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From the latest Yougov UK Poll, which as noted, is neck and neck online.

Thinking about the current debate over Britain’s membership of the European Union and the referendum, how much do you trust the statements and claims made by the following people?

Boris Johnson
34% Trust
47% Do not trust
=-13% NET

David Cameron
29% Trust
54% Do not trust
=-25% NET

Jeremy Corbyn
26% Trust
54% Do not trust
=-28% NET

Iain Duncan Smith
21% Trust
50% Do not trust
=-29% NET

Micheal Gove
17% Trust
51% Do not trust
=-34% NET

Theresa May
19% Trust
51% Do not trust
=-32% NET

Nigel Farage
22% Trust
60% Do not trust
=-38% NET

George Galloway
6% Trust
64% Do not trust
=-58% NET

So, something of a myth that Boris might make any difference; clear negative net ratings with just 34% trusting him on the matter.

Outers generally less trusted than inners.

Figures for Scotland are embarrassingly bad for all of them; much worse than the above as would be expected, with Bozo is as untrusted as Cameron.

Edited by scottish skier

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It's an interesting thing my area being Surrey, all the areas are conservative strong holds as you would imagine.. Yet, when I speak to my locals down the pub and in general day to day life when I bump into people they are all saying get us out the EU 

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4 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

I don't even want to go there, EU does need some changes but they should be negotiated from within not with out. Most who want out, want nothing to do with the EU ever. All this Howard stuff proves to me is if we vote out there will be a continuing row over the EU for years. We do not need that, our Economy doesn't need that.

Alexis..

But the problem is that the EU will not negotiate with us, unless we threaten.

Last night on QT, it was revealed that the UK MEP's have submitted 72 changes for the council in the last 12 months.

Guess how many were accepted..                                                             Yep -             A big fat Zero....

This illustrates the reticence of the EU to change.

It will be interesting if we could see the same numbers for lets say Germany and France.

Also, a surprise poll of the audience was requested and much to Dimbleby's annoyance,  it was called by a panelist.

Guess what, just 3 people knew the name of their MEP. This audience was selected to discuss the referendum in the main.

This shows how much the average person is involved in this debate!!! 

It is all very sad really.  This decision is going to affect our long term future and no one understands the first thing about it!!!

The government is simply saying that it will be safer, that seems to be their best effort. Amazing really, but with the knowledge the general public have it probably will be more than enough.

 

MIA

 

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EU: Second referendum talk 'nonsense'

One of Germany's senior business figures has said claims there could be a further renegotiation in the event of a British Out vote is the "biggest nonsense I have heard". Artur Fischer, head of the Berlin Stock Exchange, said there would be no "sympathy" for the UK in such an event and other EU countries would not be prepared to devote any further time to assuage the UK's concerns at a time when they are grappling with the migrant crisis.

I don't think there would be the kind of attention to look at it again. Why would we?

If the situation was reversed and this was in relation to another EU country would UK voters take a different attitude? is the EU expected to open up a pandoras box and then every other EU country can just start demanding more concessions.

I suspect the attitude from the British if this was another EU country would be good riddance, now shut up and stop moaning!

 

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27 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

From the latest Yougov UK Poll, which as noted, is neck and neck online.

Thinking about the current debate over Britain’s membership of the European Union and the referendum, how much do you trust the statements and claims made by the following people?

Boris Johnson
34% Trust
47% Do not trust
=-13% NET

David Cameron
29% Trust
54% Do not trust
=-25% NET

Jeremy Corbyn
26% Trust
54% Do not trust
=-28% NET

Iain Duncan Smith
21% Trust
50% Do not trust
=-29% NET

Micheal Gove
17% Trust
51% Do not trust
=-34% NET

Theresa May
19% Trust
51% Do not trust
=-32% NET

Nigel Farage
22% Trust
60% Do not trust
=-38% NET

George Galloway
6% Trust
64% Do not trust
=-58% NET

So, something of a myth that Boris might back any difference; clear negative net ratings with just 34% trusting him on the matter.

Outers generally less trusted than inners.

Figures for Scotland are embarrassingly bad for all of them; much worse than the above as would be expected, with Bozo is as untrusted as Cameron.

Interesting but not sure your conclusions, calculations are quite correct...

The average amount of trust for the  outers is 20%, Inners is 17'5%, and the outers  include the 6% for George Galloway. Will he play a part in the decision?

5%  as many people trust Boris as trust DC. (in the sample)

Being optimistic I hope that the ref  is based upon trust rather than distrust.

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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All Britain has ever done is run around making asinine 'demands' of the rest of Europe; demands that, as everyone knows, are specifically designed to rub against the grain of the entire European Project...What wonder, then, that they simply tell to us to 'go forth and multiply'? They must get heartily sick of our non-stop whingeing, whining 'we know better than everyone-else - we used to have an empire' - nonsense! 

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The saddest thing about the upcoming referendum is that many, if not most people won't be making a decision based on facts but gut reactions without any basis in reality. This is not an attack on any posters on this forum, let me be clear but just a general observation, and it applies to both sides. 

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1 minute ago, solarcycle said:

The saddest thing about the upcoming referendum is that many, if not most people won't be making a decision based on facts but gut reactions without any basis in reality. This is not an attack on any posters on this forum, let me be clear but just a general observation, and it applies to both sides.

Yes it does apply to both sides. A friend of a friend who makes jams and marmalade is voting out because she doesn't like the EU regulations on food labelling! lol Yes seriously that's not a joke. The EU has the strictest food safety standards in the world which apparently some don't like. I've  heard of equally pathetic excuses to stay in. Thankfully the majority of the population don't make jam! lol

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12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

EU: Second referendum talk 'nonsense'

One of Germany's senior business figures has said claims there could be a further renegotiation in the event of a British Out vote is the "biggest nonsense I have heard". Artur Fischer, head of the Berlin Stock Exchange, said there would be no "sympathy" for the UK in such an event and other EU countries would not be prepared to devote any further time to assuage the UK's concerns at a time when they are grappling with the migrant crisis.

I don't think there would be the kind of attention to look at it again. Why would we?

If the situation was reversed and this was in relation to another EU country would UK voters take a different attitude? is the EU expected to open up a pandoras box and then every other EU country can just start demanding more concessions.

I suspect the attitude from the British if this was another EU country would be good riddance, now shut up and stop moaning!

 

Interesting that the head of the Berlin Bourse is now calling the political shots.

All this after he has gone for a very cheeky and hostile take-over bid of the London Stock Exchange.

This must be a sign off things to come.

If he wants to take over the LSE and we move into closer collaboration with  Europe we will be seriously stuffed.

It cannot be that he seriously thinks his hostile moves will be welcomed in the UK,

It is a serious development for the in-out discussions and is posing more doubt in the short-term.

Is this a concerted plan to try and force sterling further down? If so I think it will seriously backfire.

MIA

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Yes it does apply to both sides. A friend of a friend who makes jams and marmalade is voting out because she doesn't like the EU regulations on food labelling! lol Yes seriously that's not a joke. The EU has the strictest food safety standards in the world which apparently some don't like. I've  heard of equally pathetic excuses to stay in. Thankfully the majority of the population don't make jam! lol

EU membership doesn't often have a visible influence on someone's life though. One reason why I'd like to stay in the EU is because I don't enjoy the prospect of needing two phones or two SIM cards, is this legitimate?

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13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

All Britain has ever done is run around making asinine 'demands' of the rest of Europe; demands that, as everyone knows, are specifically designed to rub against the grain of the entire European Project...What wonder, then, that they simply tell to us to 'go forth and multiply'? They must get heartily sick of our non-stop whingeing, whining 'we know better than everyone-else - we used to have an empire' - nonsense! 

Lots of people from the rest of Europe believe that Britain are ruining Europe, not the other way around. Indeed I believe that Europe could well be better off without Britain. 

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Interesting observations from Midlands Ice age there. My late father in law who was a very learned man a Grenadier guardsman in the last world war and a serving police officer until his retirement always maintained that Germany could not bring us to our knees through two world wars but would try and do it through economic means.

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12 minutes ago, kent said:

Interesting observations from Midlands Ice age there. My late father in law who was a very learned man a Grenadier guardsman in the last world war and a serving police officer until his retirement always maintained that Germany could not bring us to our knees through two world wars but would try and do it through economic means.

What, so being 'learned' doesn't enable one to distinguish between a German and a Nazi?

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Propaganda  Propaganda  Propaganda  Propaganda 

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2 hours ago, 78/79 said:

Don't know about that, they might be preferable to Comrade Corbyn,   at least  they give the impression of believing in this country, not that he has a cats chance in hell of ever becoming Prime Minister anyway. Michael Foot was the same , he had a good hiding in the 83 election and was consigned to the dustbin of history .

That's the problem, they give the impression, but it's not real.

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1 hour ago, Surrey said:

It's an interesting thing my area being Surrey, all the areas are conservative strong holds as you would imagine.. Yet, when I speak to my locals down the pub and in general day to day life when I bump into people they are all saying get us out the EU 

That's cause it's what conservatives want, then they can take complete control of everything, and to me that is a very scary thought.

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Just now, alexisj9 said:

That's cause it's what conservatives want, then they can take complete control of everything, and to me that is a very scary thought.

Well this is what mum and I discussed. But to be fair, they have done so much bad (in the eyes that hate them) that if they do anymore it won't be long before they go out

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29 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What, so being 'learned' doesn't enable one to distinguish between a German and a Nazi?

All those years of being second best to the Arsenal must be taking its toll lol.

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Yes it does apply to both sides. A friend of a friend who makes jams and marmalade is voting out because she doesn't like the EU regulations on food labelling! lol Yes seriously that's not a joke. The EU has the strictest food safety standards in the world which apparently some don't like. I've  heard of equally pathetic excuses to stay in. Thankfully the majority of the population don't make jam! lol

I quite like the EU food safety laws, not sure if they stretch to GM products or not, but hopefully they will make a rule that GM food needs to be laballed as such if they don't ban it.

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27 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

That's the problem, they give the impression, but it's not real.

I'd sooner take my chances with them  thanks very much , as opposed to an idiot who consorts with the IRA , and who  would hand back the Falklands without a second thought. irrespective of what the Islanders themselves wanted. 

Edited by 78/79

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I live in Wiltshire.. Devizes... One of the safest tory seats in the land! Been tory since 1923 and again most people round here want to leave the EU... Its not surprising Con home polls Have long been saying tory members want out of the EU 

 

P.s Their is lots of farms round here... Their think their will make more profit outside the EU... Yes their get their subs.. .But their is a whole new bigger market outside the EU... Plus their is nothing stopping r own gov giving them subs... Since most farmers r tory their will 

Edited by lfcdude

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