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Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->


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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Well we still hit the low 80s on the 06z GFS

132-582UK.GIF?31-6

 

#Strawclutch  :rofl:

By we of course, you mean the SE of England. The latest 6z barely gets the +5 degree isotherm into the North West before it is pushed away by renewed Westerlies.  Terrible performance by the models and the anomalies. The UK met was never really on board though but it helps that it only goes out to T+144.

 

At least I don't have to bother getting the BBQ cleaned out this weekend.

 

Terrible stuff.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

By we of course, you mean the SE of England. The latest 6z barely gets the +5 degree isotherm into the North West before it is pushed away by renewed Westerlies.  Terrible performance by the models and the anomalies. The UK met was never really on board though but it helps that it only goes out to T+144.

 

At least I don't have to bother getting the BBQ cleaned out this weekend.

 

Terrible stuff.

My post was intended as tongue in cheek considering how things have gone over the past 24 hours, the BBC forecast doesn't even show any of the UK hitting 25C by the end of the week which would mean that the warmest day set in April could very well still be standing by the end of this week or even the end of next weekend. If that happened then I would really be shocked.

 

Of course we could see further changes in the output which could improve matters, at least the longwave pattern looks more favourable compared to having a persistent ridge to the south west of the UK and a strong jet pushing east/south east over the UK. WHich pretty much has been the case for the last month.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Tamara made the most important point: whatever happens to the details, things are set to get warmer...

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Do you have links to those NOAA anomaly charts, I cannot seem to find the link, did have them bookmarked, but have lost them.

Thanks in Advance

 

For those interested the latest Glasto forecast is now out.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4888-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-2/

 

There you Go J.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Edit: I've posted repeatedly about this matter I know, but to get the countrywide improvement that has been promised, we need to see the back of these low AAM phases

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/gfsgwo_1.png

 

The persistent flooding of the Atlantic in cold air that this state brings, will interrupt the processes of nationwide pressure ridging and taking the jet stream permanently further north - and hence why the METO forecast today is changed to suggest relatively unsettled conditions persisting in the NW next week. This does not preclude the upcoming warming trend, but it does mean that getting the Atlantic to quieten down (for all of us) is proving a little stubborn - just for the time being.

 

In this context what does "driven by the N. Hemisphere pattern" mean? Thanks.

 

The upcoming AAM drop is being driven mainly by the Northern Hemisphere pattern.

 

#BreakingAAMintoHemipsheres

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Tamara made the most important point: whatever happens to the details, things are set to get warmer...

The problem is, this means wetter too.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

By we of course, you mean the SE of England. The latest 6z barely gets the +5 degree isotherm into the North West before it is pushed away by renewed Westerlies.  Terrible performance by the models and the anomalies. The UK met was never really on board though but it helps that it only goes out to T+144.

 

At least I don't have to bother getting the BBQ cleaned out this weekend.

 

Terrible stuff.

 

Although slightly more understandable given that you're in Ireland, this post is very over the top IMO. You're having a go at the models and anomalies for getting something wrong that hasn't happened yet??! Explain that one to me. It's still over 5 days away.

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Tamara made the most important point: whatever happens to the details, things are set to get warmer...

And others have made the equally important points that it couldn't really get any colder, nor any more volatile that the coming 48hrs and warmer/wet is not really of much use to anyone. My view of it is apart from the first few days of the new month things don't look overly poor going forward, with plenty more dry weather than wet on offer, 

Edited by Polar Maritime
To remove personal off topic opinions.
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Although slightly more understandable given that you're in Ireland, this post is very over the top IMO. You're having a go at the models and anomalies for getting something wrong that hasn't happened yet??! Explain that one to me. It's still over 5 days away.

They might very well turn out correct, but it doesn't look likely yet. I am perfectly aware the models and anomaly charts are only predictions and not fact.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The problem is, this means wetter too.

In the southeast, that isn't really true. Even the less enthused 00z suite is drier than we've had over the past few weeks

post-6981-0-09140200-1433079064_thumb.jp

Not sure if thats true for further north.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

In this context what does "driven by the N. Hemisphere pattern" mean? Thanks.

 

The upcoming AAM drop is being driven mainly by the Northern Hemisphere pattern.

 

#BreakingAAMintoHemipsheres

 

Hi

 

This blog will explain in detail:  http://www.wsi.com/blog/atmospheric-angular-momentum-to-drop-this-week-the-driving-mechanism-and-future-implications-this-summer

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

As far as Friday is concerned,  vis the GEFS anomaly, it has the upper trough a tad nearer the UK before dropping it. A recurring nuisance this trough.

The progression goes like this so I'm not sure this is settled yet as it's fine margins.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

post-12275-0-21519500-1433079826_thumb.p

post-12275-0-58442700-1433079836_thumb.p

post-12275-0-73416900-1433079846_thumb.p

post-12275-0-50723400-1433079964_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

The GFS, whilst not woeful, is a bad run. Especially for this time of year, with the 5C isotherm avoiding our shores at all costs, visiting for only brief periods. This is somewhat of an annoyance especially for June, typically the best summer month.

Whilst it is a bad run, it's going against the UKMO, the ECM and some minor models with it shoving the entire pattern too far eastwards. Not only this, but it's out on its own completely against the Met Office text forecasts.

How reliable is the new higher res GFS? Well we've seen the old GFS disprove everything else in the past, so there's every reason to say the new one should do it even better.

This is more of a disappointment post, but it's based around facts. I think if the ECM runs later and shoves the brief spell of warmth on Thursday and Friday eastwards, it's really a case of looking AGAIN further on down the line for a possible reload scenario. Everything's gone wrong. 30C+ two days ago, to 13C for some under the influence of lower pressure from the north. This is something the Met Office did NOT suggest in their text forecasts, they in fact said quite the opposite with high pressure to our North East giving better conditions in the north. They've quickly backed down from this now, typically.

So what do I see? A typical UK spell, one day of sunshine, temperatures rather good, feeling fantastic in the sunshine. Then overcast and damp the next day, no breakdown in the form of an electrial storm, followed by a usual regime of sunshine and showers for the rest of June.

People looking for a settled spell lasting more than 5 days, myself included need to remember where we live, and that here, in the worlds worst climate, if it can go wrong. It will.

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
Just seen the MetO extended outlook and Beeb week ahead and the MetO are having none of this downgrade.

They are still VERY confident of a hot weekend with no sign of the GFS northwesterly on Saturday.

We will see who is correct but it will be a bit embarrassing for the MetO if GFS 06z is correct.

FWIW my money is with the MetO.

Andy
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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Adding to last post and referral to post above;

Whilst models are struggling, I guess the slight consolation we can take from this is that the weekend is 6 days away: 144hrs is a large time frame in forecasting, especially when can't pin down a 14hr timeframe

This whole thing could still shift back westwards leaving the United Kingdom basking in the early summer sunshine. I'll wait for the traditionally more reliable 12Z runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

 

Just seen the MetO extended outlook and Beeb week ahead and the MetO are having none of this downgrade.

They are still VERY confident of a hot weekend with no sign of the GFS northwesterly on Saturday.

We will see who is correct but it will be a bit embarrassing for the MetO if GFS 06z is correct.

FWIW my money is with the MetO.

Andy

 

 

Looking at the BBC/Met Office projections for London; Friday 24C, Saturday 23C, Sunday 23C

 

Hot? maybe to some. Looks in and around average to slightly above.... the bbc, to my knowledge, has not been suggesting 30C for London, unlike other forecasts I saw.

 

Interestingly, the GFS is neck and neck with the UKMO in the recent verification stats

 

cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.pngday 6.

Edited by draztik
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Looking at the BBC/Met Office projections for London; Friday 24C, Saturday 23C, Sunday 23C

 

Hot? maybe to some. Looks in and around average to slightly above.... the bbc has never showed 30C for London, unlike other forecasts I saw.

 

 

In high summer yes but not early June which is the coolest part of summer on average, they are very decent temps if they come off.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS again showing low pressure rather than high pressure for the end of next week completely different to what the beeb showed earlier

 

gfs-0-120.png?12

 

Lets see what UKMO comes up with shortly for the same time

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Can we please keep media/Meto forecast to the relevant threads. Cheers ^

 

Thanks, PM. 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Oh dear! 12Z looking like a disaster so far. Could be game over.

post-8895-0-70058100-1433088881_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Well on the downside the GFS 12z almost removes Fridays warmth alltogether. But in the plus side high pressure is poised to take over by Saturday. However, we really cant take any op run seriously at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

The projected very warm spell is all but gone now!

Does look like another area of high pressure may well move in for the beginning of the week for a crumb of comfort at least!

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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry summers with big thunderstorms.
  • Location: Chelmsford

Anyone seen the GFS 06z ensembles? All over the place!!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I will await the ECM tonight as once again the 12z looks different.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The problem is, this means wetter too.

So what? :D

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