Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[summer blizzard]

Lots of disparity after the weekend with outcomes ranging from a COL to a pressure build to a low.

 

Euro goes for a westerly pressure build..

 

[knocker]

Good agreement with the anomalies last night at keeping the HP to the East and the weak upper trough to the west apart from the GEFS which moves everything slightly west.

Charts weatherbell

 

[knocker]

And having consulted Mystic Meg and in anticipation of some posts this morning a quick look at the GEFS anomaly for00.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[bluearmy]

The only thing banked is that it will get warmer. It will. also, there will be a build in euro heights. There will. Also that we will find ourselves in the action zone between the heights to our ese and any Atlantic troughing which could be courtesy of an Iberian trough (in which case it will be v humid and hot). the models are simply paying out alternative solution as the time ticks down and they get a lead on disturbances which were not able to be picked up by the higher res of the ens. that always happens. the ops may well prove to be wrong at a 6/7 days anyway. I'm just going to be happy to be out without a jacket on (if it's dry of course)

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 5 charts

 

ECM

 

UKMO

 

GFS

 

GEM

 

Not exactly oozing confidence even in the near reliable time frame.

Some of the runs still deliver 30C potentially, on the other hand some runs would probably keep the maximum temperature of 25C set in April for the next week or so. Who knows but it seems that the models failed to pick up the strong jet coming off the eastern seaboard resulting in the flatter pattern now predicted.

Edited May 31, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[coldcomfort]

The only thing banked is that it will get warmer. It will. also, there will be a build in euro heights. There will. Also that we will find ourselves in the action zone between the heights to our ese and any Atlantic troughing which could be courtesy of an Iberian trough (in which case it will be v humid and hot). the models are simply paying out alternative solution as the time ticks down and they get a lead on disturbances which were not able to be picked up by the higher res of the ens. that always happens. the ops may well prove to be wrong at a 6/7 days anyway. I'm just going to be happy to be out without a jacket on (if it's dry of course)

Agree with this BA, but in all honesty that would probably be a given going into June considering just how cold it's been and still is.....it's hardly anything worthy of major celebration imo. Given the kind of charts we've seen across the last 48-72hrs the overnight runs are disappointing at best and downright awful IF compared with the recent stellar offerings. As CS has just said the Jet does look likely to me much stronger than expected, so imo all bets are off once again (despite my optimism yesterday), with warmer but still inherently unsettled just not floating my particular boat. 

Edited May 31, 2015 by coldcomfort

[mushymanrob]

ha...

didnt we have a similar scenario last year or earlier?... im sure a promised, supported, consistently expected hot spell was downgraded to a 12 hour wonder.

thats the problem with rapid pressure build...they dont last or appear not to last as the mobile atmosphere that allows them to build is also responsible for their lack of longevity.

no real point in viewing the ops from next sunday onwards, they are an inconsistent mess! but the anoms knocker posted will give the best indication as to what lies in store.... and they look warm but unsettled, with high to our east, upper low to our southwest. 

so the 'best start to june since 1975' (my quote) looks like being another dud. pity, id prefer early heat. never mind...its only weather.

[Polar Maritime]

Agree with this BA, but in all honesty that would probably be a given going into June considering just how cold it's been and still is.....it's hardly anything worthy of major celebration imo. Given the kind of charts we've seen across the last 48-72hrs the overnight runs are disappointing at best and downright awful IF compared with the recent stella offerings. As CS has just said the Jet does look likely to me much stronger than expected, so imo all bets are off once again (despite my optimism yesterday), with warmer but still inherently unsettled just not floating my particular boat. 

 

Who's celebrating? The Models show a steady transient to warmer weather, Nothing 'disappointing at best' or 'downright awful'. Very sweeping statements there, Let's not get carried away in the moment reg 1 run.

[coldcomfort]

PM... I said 'Given the kind of charts we've seen across the last 48-72hrs the overnight runs are disappointing at best and downright awful IF compared with the recent stellar offerings.'

 

I standby that statement and am certainly not getting carried away in making it....it's all about opinions and that's mine. 

 

Let's see what the 06 brings, but imo it won't be a million miles from it's 00 counterpart.

Edited May 31, 2015 by coldcomfort

[Mr Frost]

It is not one run though, the output has been getting worse with each run - the heat which was showing for here has completely vanished.

Even the Metoffice have downgraded my temperatures for next Thursday for example. (Also mentions rain moving in later that day)

The UK is one of the worst places to live if you are a weather enthusiast, always the last stop for any hot or cold weather - Mushy is spot on with his post, it is always the same no matter the season.

I am sure we will still see some pleasant days here and a couple of hot days in the South though but I was really looking forward to seeing the kind of weather/temperatures that charts showed a couple of days ago and that all the other output was suggesting.

[Polar Maritime]

PM... I said 'Given the kind of charts we've seen across the last 48-72hrs the overnight runs are disappointing at best and downright awful IF compared with the recent stellar offerings.'

 

I standby that statement and am certainly not getting carried away in making it....it's all about opinions and that's mine. 

 

Let's see what the 06 brings, but imo it won't be a million miles from it's 00 counterpart.

 

That's fair enough, Just don't presume members are making 'major celebrations'.. As you say let's see what the 6z brings. 

 

Back to what the Models are showing, Thanks.

Edited May 31, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Penrith Snow]

You cannot deny that the models have undergone a big downgrade and it isn't just one run. 2 days ago a high pressure was forecast to be centred over Scotland next Saturday, now it's a low pressure, so unless you are a lover of miserable summer weather that's a downgrade!

Long term things could still come together and the blip next weekend just a longer way if getting to the outcome we want. The MetO is still confident of a good June so that's enough to keep the dream alive.

Meanwhile back in Cumbria (aka North East Iceland) it's another day of wind, rain and temperatures WELL below average.

Andy

[draztik]

What this flags to me, is the mediocrity of the ECM as early as day 6.....which is thoroughly disappointing! as well as its ensembles.

 

GFS picked up the idea that this would not be a spell, and merely a day or two. And its ens really were reluctant to ever back a hot spell... the latest GEFS shows some of us with a neg temp anom into days 0-16..... 

 

nothing notable on this update. Underwhelming, given the hype shown by some and the ECM.

Edited May 31, 2015 by draztik

[Summer Sun]

Looking through the models GEM will be the heat lovers choice this morning

 

[Milhouse]

Well after todays hideous conditions it can only get better. Tomorrow will be another poor day but after that its an improving picture. Tuesday isnt looking dry by any means but with warmer air aloft it will mean it wont feel as chilly as it does today. Then from Wednesday till Friday its a case of rising temperatures and a lot of dry weather around. Temperatures still set to max out in the mid to high 20s on Friday.

 

So even though Friday is the only potentially hot day, im more pleased to see generally higher pressure across the models this morning replacing the grotty west/northwesterlies that have brought many areas such a cool and disapponting May.

[Nouska]

What this flags to me, is the mediocrity of the ECM as early as day 6.....which is thoroughly disappointing! as well as its ensembles.

 

GFS picked up the idea that this would not be a spell, and merely a day or two. And its ens really were reluctant to ever back a hot spell... the latest GEFS shows some of us with a neg temp anom into days 0-16..... 

 

nothing notable on this update. Underwhelming, given the hype shown by some and the ECM.

 

Regarding the ECM - I've been following the EPSgrams for Reading and they have been consistently at the top of the envelope.

 

 

We should have been able to be more confident as the control and deterministic were on the same page mostly but with that level of spread, there was always room for big changes.

[049balt]

I don't think we should get too depressed about the output this am, the models have been really struggling with the position of the High for some time. I hope Tamara will keep us updated on the road to Summer.

[draztik]

Regarding the ECM - I've been following the EPSgrams for Reading and they have been consistently at the top of the envelope.

 

 

We should have been able to be more confident as the control and deterministic were on the same page mostly but with that level of spread, there was always room for big changes.

 

Of course, and this was what had installed confidence; op & control on same page etc

And as you say 'big changes' are now being indicated

 

here is yesterdays 12z temp anom & its 0z counterpart / ecm det.

days 6-10 / charts WeatherBell.

 

That is quite the difference - and its ensemble mean, tho not showing such a contrast, has surprisingly backtracked in the space of 12 hours with a notable trend to shunt everything further east.

 

GEFS/GFS has not had to alter its charts much.... rather consistent. A poor display from the ECM the last few days, lets not try and sugarcoat it. And speaking of GFS, the 6z is suggesting Fridays expected heat now appears suspect.... the way the models are moving we will be lucky if we get a day.

Edited May 31, 2015 by draztik

[coldcomfort]

Well out to 180hrs the GFS maintains it's downward trend, in fact the 180 itself kind of demonstrates what we see so often in the winter, i.e if there is a way for things to go wrong we somehow manage to find it with monotonous regularity. Phantom LP to the SW appears to have been the dream maker in this instance, with LP now looking set to be right back over us again come this time next week.....aaaagggggghhhhhh!!!!!!

Edited May 31, 2015 by coldcomfort

[Polar Maritime]

The 6z continues to show only a transient settled affair for the back end of the 1st week of June, Before further Lows spin in from the N/W from Saturday. Temps still look respectful for the S/E on Friday, Maybe reaching 27/28c.. Mon/Tue look very unsettled with rain and Gales for some in the North.

 

Edited May 31, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

Well we still hit the low 80s on the 06z GFS

 

#Strawclutch 

[Alex]

Something doesn't look right with the GFS 06z, although it seems to have further downgraded the heat/settled spell, I think at the same time it is overdoing the trough over Iceland. I may be wrong but it will be interesting to see what the ensembles show.

[J10]

Good agreement with the anomalies last night at keeping the HP to the East and the weak upper trough to the west apart from the GEFS which moves everything slightly west.

Charts weathe

rbell

 

Do you have links to those NOAA anomaly charts, I cannot seem to find the link, did have them bookmarked, but have lost them.

Thanks in Advance

 

For those interested the latest Glasto forecast is now out.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4888-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-2/

[Polar Maritime]

Monday/Tuesday look very windy indeed as a complicated set of Lows spin across the UK on very strong Jet, With gales touching 70mph in places and heavy rain.

 

Edited May 31, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Tamara]

A clue was given in yesterdays post to what we are seeing this morning, which suggested that there was a possibility that the models might over amplify the initial upper ridge and hence the longevity of the initial plume might be (just a little) over-cooked . It appears to be the development of the shortwave west of Ireland around t120 to t144 - which is causing some headaches in the modelling (and, so it seems, even greater ones for model watchers)

 

The Global Wind Oscillation continues to suggest an elastic-band pinging back to lower AAM phases 1/2. These phases, as mentioned often before, buckle the jet stream south across the Atlantic, which pulls colder air south into the Atlantic where the jet digs south, and hence this amplification potentially causes a deepening of any shortwaves ahead of it. The u-bend shape of the jet means that the ridging behind the shortwave activity is also amplified.

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20150531/06/114/hgt300.png

 

The GFS phases the energy of the shortwave trough to the NW with the thundery heat low moving up from Biscay. This sharpens further the boundary lines of the two different air-masses - with the cooler Atlantic air digging in behind the unstable humid air ahead of it.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015053106/gfsnh-0-144.png?6

 

The ECM phasing develops the heat-low feature further south, rather than absorbing it into the circulation of the shortwave trough further north as the GFS does

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015053100/ECH1-144.GIF?31-12

 

 

Whichever way you slice these, It is the classic 1/2/3 fine days and a thunderstorm pattern in the UK

 

Meanwhile, the UKMO simply tracks the shortwave NE away to the NE of Scotland without any interaction with the instability to the south - and the heights over Europe connect to the ridging in the Atlantic as a string of anomalous mid latitude ridges. This is the 'non-breakdown' solution - even though the other solutions are on a high pressure re-load anyway (Keeping the weather fair and more stable, this would be my personal favourite outcome ideally )

 

The problem with too much attention to the shortwave development, and the different ways that the models are handling the shortwave phasing (or not as the case may be) draws attention away from the bigger picture which keeps the same theme as suggested before. Timing might lead to short term disappointment of expectations, but aside from the end of week hiccups,, and the fact that the plume evolution is not as 'clean' as it might have looked (at face value for those interested specifically in storms and heat) the general theme, as expected is still similar.

 

It is the handling of the shortwave tracking NNE to the NW which determines how the following ridge approaches us from upstream - as much as it affects the longevity (and shape) of the downstream heights over Europe which draws up the warm and humid air ahead of the shortwave to the west

 

So, -  the likelihood of a thundery plume end of this week/weekend, and then a further pressure rise thereafter as suggested yesterday is still the same message today.

 

Its going to get warmer - that is all that matters in my opinion at the moment. The detail will take care of itself

 

Edit: I've posted repeatedly about this matter I know, but to get the countrywide improvement that has been promised, we need to see the back of these low AAM phases

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/gfsgwo_1.png

 

The persistent flooding of the Atlantic in cold air that this state brings, will interrupt the processes of nationwide pressure ridging and taking the jet stream permanently further north - and hence why the METO forecast today is changed to suggest relatively unsettled conditions persisting in the NW next week. This does not preclude the upcoming warming trend, but it does mean that getting the Atlantic to quieten down (for all of us) is proving a little stubborn - just for the time being.

 

2nd edit - little point in making a separate post    : Consistent UKMO 12z which fully illustrates my post yesterday about one High pressure cell being replaced by the next upstream in the Atlantic.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015053112/UN96-21.GIF?31-18

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015053112/UN120-21.GIF?31-18

 

Day 6 modelling effectively takes us to where we shown to be yesterday. Its easy to see where the modelling heads from here.....

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015053112/UN144-21.GIF?31-18

 

 

The 'in the middle part' around day 5 with the shortwave engaging the plume is a smokescreen to the bigger picture - which remains the same whichever model is right with the plume/ hortwave movements....... we still end up back with the same pattern

 

Far too much silly hysteria over all this - and especially intra day GFS output methinks

Edited May 31, 2015 by Tamara