Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[Polar Maritime]

Lots of personal opinions poping up eg; Good run/bad run.. Which differes depending on who is viewing them and there own preferences. Its such a broad discriptive its probably best ignored.

[Summer Sun]

Early sages from GFS and UKMO at t120 they are both fairly close with high pressure edging up from the south

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Better signs so far, UKMO building high pressure in on the 3rd.

 

The GFS agrees

 

Both push low pressure through quickly on Tuesday and tend to leave a slack pattern in the Atlantic which should hopefully allow the Euro ridge to push north. Big plume event coming up on the GFS at day 7.

Edited May 29, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

It looks to me as though this is going to be a fantastic June, day after day the gefs mean is showing charts like these and reading the met office updates there is no sign of cool unsettled Atlantic driven weather returning, once the warmer anticyclonic pattern becomes established later next week. I think we are going to stay within a warm/very warm/hot and humid pattern for weeks and weeks. I'm looking forward to a sustained spell of summery weather.

[mushymanrob]

WOW! the gfs 12z is a stunner!

On tablet so cant post charts, but IF that came off it would produce the best start to june since 1975.

[049balt]

Some very heavy rain.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

[Methuselah]

It does indeed look like a bit of a stonker might be in the offing. Let us pray!      

[Summer Sun]

Some very heavy rain.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

Thats still on the 00z, the 12z may show less rain

[mountain shadow]

WOW! the gfs 12z is a stunner!

On tablet so cant post charts, but IF that came off it would produce the best start to june since 1975.

I wonder if we're looking at the same charts sometimes. The unsettled weather looks like continuing through the weekend. Yes warmer, but still wet for some. Saturday has a cold front straddling the Uk with the Atlantic fresher air behind. Only the South looks to be in the proper humid air.

 

Yes, it improves into the following week, but yet again it is delayed.

[Frosty.]

For anyone who hasn't seen the Gfs 12z, there is some incredible eye candy for you. This reminds me a lot of the stonking Ecm 00z this morning, most interestingly, it's the sort of charts we will see verifying if the met office extended outlook is correct. Enjoy.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Great end to the 12z run! Wouldn't mind this!

 

 

 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

I'm pretty sure those temperatures would max out a few degrees higher too since they are at noon! Ive never prayed so much for something to happen!!

[Captain Shortwave]

I wonder if we're looking at the same charts sometimes. The unsettled weather looks like continuing through the weekend. Yes warmer, but still wet for some. Saturday has a cold front straddling the Uk with the Atlantic fresher air behind. Only the South looks to be in the proper humid air.

 

Yes, it improves into the following week, but yet again it is delayed.

Pressure is predicted to build on Wednesday the 3rd which is bang on what the models were saying days back. Of course the detail changes but this push northwards in heights northwards has been consistent apart from a couple of wobbles. There seems to be a favouring of a short spell of very warm weather followed by a thundery low moving north. Will it make it this far? Not sure at the moment and I wouldn't trust the eastward movement of the longwave pattern at the moment to be honest.

This current modelling looks similar to mid-July last year so far and I wonder whether that is the direction we are heading. That set would be pretty close to the met office view and the various anomalies posted over the past days.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I'd say in local hotspots such as Heathrow/Northolt, The Fens, parts of Cheshire etc could well hit 33/34c locally if the 12z actually came off! 

Surely that would be record breaking for June?

[knocker]

Everything looking hunky dory on the GEFS anomalies with the upper low to the south west becoming cut off.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited May 29, 2015 by knocker

[Scorcher]

Well it doesn't come much better than this from the ECM 12Z if it's heat you're after...an absolute beauty of a chart for next Saturday...one of the hottest charts I've seen for years. Confidence is certainly growing for a much much warmer spell...and if the ECM 12Z is to believed the high would re-establish itself after Saturday.

 

It really does not come much better than this in early June...of course it's slightly outside the reliable timeframe so details will change...but things are looking good heat lovers!

 

 

[Alex]

Well it doesn't come much better than this from the ECM 12Z if it's heat you're after...an absolute beauty of a chart for next Saturday...one of the hottest charts I've seen for years. Confidence is certainly growing for a much much warmer spell...and if the ECM 12Z is to believed the high would re-establish itself after Saturday.

 

It really does not come much better than this in early June...of course it's slightly outside the reliable timeframe so details will change...but things are looking good heat lovers!

 

 

What will be key now is whether the models backtrack and move everything east meaning once again the southeast gets the plume whilst the rest of the country wonders what the fuss is about.

This though is one time when I think things will fall into place nicely and most of the country could benefit from the heat!

[Scorcher]

What will be key now is whether the models backtrack and move everything east meaning once again the southeast gets the plume whilst the rest of the country wonders what the fuss is about.

This though is one time when I think things will fall into place nicely and most of the country could benefit from the heat!

 

Well yes, I can't see how that can happen with things as they are this time though. Of course if the GFS is correct for next Saturday then we could be looking at an extreme version of what you suggest...it has the SE reaching 30C while NW England struggles at 14C. The GFS seems to be the model beginning to back down though with the ECM sticking to its guns.

[Winter Cold]

One thing thats confusing me is that the ensembles are not really going for heat, and the GFS12z was once again way above the mean as it always seems to be recently, with the green line always the most optimistic:

 

 

Yes a few days the run gets to about 27/28 but thats well above the rest of the pack as you can see, and the mean doesnt ever get above 20c.

 

I realise the GFS seems to under preject temps, but only by a few degrees and shourly not by 10C!? That would make the GEFS useless!!

[049balt]

Can someone please post  a chart for 10 July 2013

[Scorcher]

That was a beauty for Ireland...

 

[Frosty.]

Awesome Ecm 12z this evening, great to see continuity from the 00z. Really exciting potential for the majority of us on here. 30c 86f/32c 90f from this run with reload potential..lovely stuff

[049balt]

That was a beauty for Ireland...

 

Thanks, that was the last really hot spell here.

[049balt]

Awesome Ecm 12z this evening, great to see continuity from the 00z. Really exciting potential for the majority of us on here. 30c 86f/32c 90f from this run with reload potential..lovely stuff

It is hard to see these predicted temps. materialise. 30c plus in early June?

[Summer Sun]

It is hard to see these predicted temps. materialise. 30c plus in early June?

 

Its certainly not out the question with the right set up +18 850's into the south with +19's just clipping parts of the SE

 

 

GFS giving parts of the south the heat next Saturday maxing around 30c, whilst in parts of the north it struggles to get into double figures!!