Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[Mokidugway]

Some hope in F1 pinch of salt and all.....

[bluearmy]

Some hope in F1 pinch of salt and all.....image.jpg

Not so far removed from the extended ECM ens mean anomaly for T360 .................

Edited May 23, 2015 by bluearmy

[Stuie]

This looks like a pattern change. The vortex decides to move from its currently anchored position. Would have preferred to see it going due East though.

[Captain Shortwave]

Not so far removed from the extended ECM ens mean anomaly for T360 .................

The week 3 anomaly from the CFS is also consistently going for a monster Scandi high during that period so there may be something with this.

 

The trouble is will it make it into the reliable time frame or will the unusually strong Atlantic jet continue to power through a maintain a westerly based pattern.

 

Saying that, the deep depression at the end of next week does appear to be more useful than it may seem at first as the powerful jet streak finally manages to push heights into the central part of the Med and hence allow Euro heights to develop.

Edited May 23, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

High pressure is around for the early part of next week then towards the end of the week it looks like we'll have a cooler spell and rain / showers

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening folks. Some pockets of fine weather to enjoy ,but the Atlantic wants to Dance with us for some time to come,,,,

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is looking much more settled and warmer with high pressure becoming increasingly influential through early June with temperatures widely into the 20's celsius. As for the reliable timeframe, it's the northwest of the UK which will bear the brunt of the unsettled and cool weather with the bulk of the rain and strong winds whereas the south and east will have the best of the fine and pleasantly warm spells. I'm pleased to see the met office are still indicating high pressure and warmth as we go further into June.

[049balt]

The GEFS 12z mean is looking much more settled and warmer with high pressure becoming increasingly influential through early June with temperatures widely into the 20's celsius. As for the reliable timeframe, it's the northwest of the UK which will bear the brunt of the unsettled and cool weather with the bulk of the rain and strong winds whereas the south and east will have the best of the fine and pleasantly warm spells. I'm pleased to see the met office are still indicating high pressure and warmth as we go further into June.

Good stuff Frosty, There is much to look forward to once we get over the next unsettled spell.

Edited May 24, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[legritter]

I realy think its a hard one to call as the end of this month and early june looks unsettled  looking at current charts and data .

I realy want to see THE met office high pressure  situation  come off perhaps we may get a halfway house with high pressure over europe and a low pressure area to our west ,some high heights also showing up to our far north ,Atleast not boring but as i say hard to call and plenty for us to muse over ,cheers gang ,

[knocker]

Last nights anomalies still have the UK under the influence of the LP to the NW with the trough down to the MED with ridge in NE Europe. So basically still retaining unsettled Pm conditions, certainly for the northern half of Britain.

 

But in the ext period height rises to the NE and the trough retracting to Greenland could bring tidings of great joy.

Charts weatherbell

 

[knocker]

This morning's GFS ops at T240 rather fits the above analysis.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eu&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015052400&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=228

 

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning continues the unsettled/cool N/W Pm flow until the end of the run, Where High Pressure attempts to push in from the S/E during the last few frames, As per previous runs. So again it's looking like the back end of the 1st week of June at least before we see anything settled/warm for the UK. Next weekend looks pretty stormy for the North.

 

 

Edited May 24, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The GFS this morning continues the unsettled/cool N/W Pm flow until the end of the run, Where High Pressure attempts to push in from the S/E during the last few frames, As per previous runs. So again it's looking like the back end of the 1st week of June at least before we see anything settled/warm for the UK. Next weekend looks pretty stormy for the North.

 

 

 

that middle one especially, is the sort of chart you'd see in Dec

[Polar Maritime]

ECMWF this morning also shows the same general theme, With Low Pressure systems spinning down from the N/W for the turn of the Month as we enter Summer proper. The PV does show to move East passing the UK as it exits Greenland, Which 'should' in time aid for Pressure rises over the UK. But there's plenty of water to run under the bridge before then.

 

Edited May 24, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

well im looking at the noaa 8-14 anomaly chart to see if this verifies the gfs fi high pressure build.



pressure should build to our south, but whether or not itll lead to +ve heights near enough to produce settled/heat/warmth isnt decided yet. i guess the old addage used in winter "the building blocks are in place" could be employed. whilst the current anomaly doesnt predict +ve heights over the uk, (but a westerly upper flow) its not a million miles away from such an evolution.

on the other hand, the gfs and ecm might be totally wrong, and the coming weeks unsettled regime might well continue into june. thats one hell of a system for weds night/thurs for late may.

im reasonably optimistic for something more 'summery', but we have all seen these fi teases before, many times, and they do keep getting put back. im far from convinced these 'eye candy' (horrid term) charts in fi will amount to anything.

but heres hoping

[Eugene]

well im looking at the noaa 8-14 anomaly chart to see if this verifies the gfs fi high pressure build.

814day.03c.gif

pressure should build to our south, but whether or not itll lead to +ve heights near enough to produce settled/heat/warmth isnt decided yet. i guess the old addage used in winter "the building blocks are in place" could be employed. whilst the current anomaly doesnt predict +ve heights over the uk, (but a westerly upper flow) its not a million miles away from such an evolution.

on the other hand, the gfs and ecm might be totally wrong, and the coming weeks unsettled regime might well continue into june. thats one hell of a system for weds night/thurs for late may.

brack4.gif

im reasonably optimistic for something more 'summery', but we have all seen these fi teases before, many times, and they do keep getting put back. im far from convinced these 'eye candy' (horrid term) charts in fi will amount to anything.

but heres hoping

 

 

Very misleading comment mushy, GFS 00Z FI shows a continental LP setup developing for western europe with pulses of heavy thundery rainfall and lots of cloudcover in the east especially, on it's own anyway.

[049balt]

Rainfall  doesn't  look too bad with the exception of the south west in week two.

 

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

[mountain shadow]

Dreadful output this morning for any dry and warm weather. Relentless Westerlies/North Westerlies and unseasonal low pressure systems pushing in. Some brief respite occasionally from the Azores ridge.

 

All in all, a poor outlook for the next two weeks.

[bluearmy]

ecm extended ens continue to promise something better.  the alaskan ridge finally gives way to an upper shallow trough which draws the vortex energy west from ne canada rather than the current fixation with the n atlantic. gefs also promises a general rising in heights over europe so i would expect the passing of week 2 to herald a change in our fortunes. what seems to be showing consistently, is that once the jet relents, we will see a euro height rise to our ese and an upper trough form over iberia. i may be sounding like a broken record but it will definitely feel very different if that comes to pass. of course, if we do get a ridge established to our east, any reformation of the atlantic jet will deliver a rather different outcome where the two meet. either way, thats warm and wet (thundery?) or perhaps v warm/hot and dry.

Edited May 24, 2015 by bluearmy

[BlueHedgehog074]

Looking at the GEFS postage stamps for up to 10 days ahead (Wednesday 3rd May) and there does seem to be a fair few Purtubations offering height rises over, or to the South-East/East of the UK with the Azores High trying to build in from the South-West. Though it does seem to be a fairly even split between pressure rises over the UK and Low Pressure systems affecting the UK from the North or North-West.

The build of High Pressure over the UK becomes more evident the day after.

Some warmer and settled conditions possible on some of these (Edit: some of these also could fit along with Bluearmy's suggestions of Pressure building to our East).

Clearly, though, nothing is certain yet for that period (as is usually the case) but it's nice to see some of the GEFS ensembles going for some build up of high pressure. Enough of the Purtubations show it to suggest it being a possibility. Some reasonable support for it. Equally, however, it's always possible Low Pressure systems could continue to affect the British Islses from the North-West and do all they can to ensure the Azores High doesn't take a trip to the UK and/or stop heights building to our East.

But even should High Pressure struggle to make much impact and/or with any ridging being temporary, I guess there is always the rest of June, July, August, September (and perhaps even the beginning of October) to see to some prolonged warm, settled, Summary conditions.

Edited May 24, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine

[Polar Maritime]

High Pressure is shown to push North from the S/E towards the end of the run by the GFS 6z for the back end of the 1st week of June, Nice to see it pop up again..

 

Edited May 24, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

Very misleading comment mushy, GFS 00Z FI shows a continental LP setup developing for western europe with pulses of heavy thundery rainfall and lots of cloudcover in the east especially, on it's own anyway.

Who quoted the 00z?

I gave a general comment referring to the gfs's tendency to build high pressure in fi. I didnt say nor implied it was a large long lasting pressure build, just that the gfs cobtinues to suggest some sort of pressure build. The point being that the current 8-14day anomaly chart doesnt support a high pressure build over us other then a temporary ridge imho.

Edit... I note the 06z DOES have a large lasting high over us, so thats not misleading

Edited May 24, 2015 by mushymanrob

[summer blizzard]

well im looking at the noaa 8-14 anomaly chart to see if this verifies the gfs fi high pressure build.

814day.03c.gif

pressure should build to our south, but whether or not itll lead to +ve heights near enough to produce settled/heat/warmth isnt decided yet. i guess the old addage used in winter "the building blocks are in place" could be employed. whilst the current anomaly doesnt predict +ve heights over the uk, (but a westerly upper flow) its not a million miles away from such an evolution.

on the other hand, the gfs and ecm might be totally wrong, and the coming weeks unsettled regime might well continue into june. thats one hell of a system for weds night/thurs for late may.

brack4.gif

im reasonably optimistic for something more 'summery', but we have all seen these fi teases before, many times, and they do keep getting put back. im far from convinced these 'eye candy' (horrid term) charts in fi will amount to anything.

but heres hoping

 

While i hold out hope for the pressure builds shown in FI i don't see more than a transitory ridging pattern so long as the pattern over the USA remains. 

 

Indeed the Euro keeps the status quo.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

While i hold out hope for the pressure builds shown in FI i don't see more than a transitory ridging pattern so long as the pattern over the USA remains. 

 

Indeed the Euro keeps the status quo.

 

 

The closing frames of the past few GFS runs look to me like a complete re-run of the setting up of the washout summers of 07-12. High pressure ridges, builds towards Scandi then extends across the N Atlantic towards Greenland, thus allowing pressure to lower to the SW and providing an opportunity for the jet to meander across/just to the S of the UK.

 

 

Obviously it's well out in the realms of la la land but maybe worth noting. Ideally, for those wanting sustained summer, you'd want to see that HP route to Greenland closed off. If not, you always run the risk of us ending up (very) wet. 

Edited May 24, 2015 by CreweCold

[049balt]

Dry and pleasantly warm for the first  week in June.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html