Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[knocker]

Tonight's GEFS anomaly is still looking a the dissolution of the trough and modest height build to the NE resulting in this which tends to support previous output from the ECM

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=mslpa5d&runtime=2015052212&fh=360&xpos=0&ypos=342

 

Edited May 22, 2015 by knocker

[Winter Cold]

Evening all!

 

Well no posts in over 7 hours shows this thread is now in full scale summer mode!

 

I dont suppose charts like this from todays GFS12z are helping either. Not great to say the least as we enter meteorological summer:

 

   

 

The bit of good news is that the run was below the mean by quite a bit in terms of pressure, so probably not as bad as it looks come the time:

 

 

However the temps forecast is very well supported with the run, control and mean very close together which shows average values at best right out into June:

 

 

 

The end of next week looks poor on UKMO and ECM this evening:

 

    

 

So not the best of outlooks still it has to be said. There was a suggestion on the GFS ensembles of late of an upwards curve at the end possibly signalling something warmer as we head into June but thats dissapeared as you can see on the 12z suite above. The wait for sustained summery weather continues......

[049balt]

OMG, floods and cold.

 

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

[Mokidugway]

OMG, floods and cold.

 

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

ppn doesn't look that bad to me especially the last chart ..

[Eugene]

Evening all!

 

Well no posts in over 7 hours shows this thread is now in full scale summer mode!

 

I dont suppose charts like this from todays GFS12z are helping either. Not great to say the least as we enter meteorological summer:

 

   

 

The bit of good news is that the run was below the mean by quite a bit in terms of pressure, so probably not as bad as it looks come the time:

 

gefs225pr.jpg

 

However the temps forecast is very well supported with the run, control and mean very close together which shows average values at best right out into June:

 

gefs225tmp.jpg

 

 

The end of next week looks poor on UKMO and ECM this evening:

 

    

 

So not the best of outlooks still it has to be said. There was a suggestion on the GFS ensembles of late of an upwards curve at the end possibly signalling something warmer as we head into June but thats dissapeared as you can see on the 12z suite above. The wait for sustained summery weather continues......

 

 

Looks very normal to me, proper sustained summery weather doesn't often start until mid July onwards anyway, early July is usually unsettled before the jet moves north allowing the azores high to push over us from mid July, temps perfectly acceptable in the next week.

[049balt]

ppn doesn't look that bad to me especially the last chart ..

If you live in the West it is dire.

[Mokidugway]

If you live in the West it is dire.

west Ireland ? I an believe that ..these are big Isles and location is everything .. Edited May 22, 2015 by Mokidugway

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows increasingly settled and warmer weather through early June with the Azores high building in and the PFJ pushed well north.

[Methuselah]

Let's hope so, Frosty...  

[049balt]

The GEFS 12z mean shows increasingly settled and warmer weather through early June with the Azores high building in and the PFJ pushed well north.

I am with you that we will see a Flaming June.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening Guy and Girls, A few pockets of fine weather for just about everyone in the Uk, but the Lions share of weather is generally changeable /unsettled is the norm....The Jet stream really engages with the cold flooding out of the Artic to give the uk  some pretty unsettled weather...

[ANYWEATHER]

I am with you that we will see a Flaming June.

Hey Bud , I love youre posts  , but would you please show us something to back up youre posts, Like some charts??

[Methuselah]

It's normal: who knows what the summer will be like?

[Mokidugway]

I know it's 240 hours out but a bit grim looking :0..

And a rainfest for the NW.

Edited May 22, 2015 by Mokidugway

[Frosty.]

Hey Bud , I love youre posts  , but would you please show us something to back up youre posts, Like some charts??

He was responding to the lovely charts I posted showing a warmer and settled early June from the Gefs 12z mean, hope that clears up your confusion.

[049balt]

He was responding to the lovely charts I posted showing a warmer and settled early June from the Gefs 12z mean, hope that clears up your confusion.

Good man frosty!

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS continues this evening to show a strong Jet over the UK, With depressions spinning down from the N/W  for the turn of the month. Some very stormy weather to come, Especially for the North if these charts came to light.

 

Edited May 22, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[summer blizzard]

12z GFS likely overdoing the lows.

 

That being said, the general theme of a westerly pattern and more unsettled than not is likely to continue so long as the pattern over the US remains. I don't buy the ensembles. 

 

[knocker]

Looking at tonight's anomalies I would say the trough is still dominating proceedings. The vortex over Hudson is really a pain/

Charts weatherbell

 

[knocker]

This is the bad news. Until we get rid of this cold air to the NW squeezing the jet into this awful position there is little likelihood of any significant change.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=uv200&runtime=2015052300&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=342

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

And the good news.. Is the GFS continues to show High Pressure trying to nudge North over the UK towards the very end of the run into the back end of the 1st week of June.

 

[bluearmy]

There is a trend - the angle of the jet does appear to be on a slow change towards sw/ne over time. looks like we will eventually lose the euro troughing to our ese which will encourage the euro heights to rise. Where the UK ends up in the pattern not certain but it should be warmer than it has been - I remember promising that for the end of May a week or so ago!

[Woollymummy]

It's the nasty streak coming at us on the left that is worrying me, this coming week may be a bit cool but at least it won't be the stinking u-bend of doom bubbling up poxy lows :-(

[summer blizzard]

Euro a bit better this morning but i'm skeptical with no pattern change over the USA. In the meantime, westerlies rule the roost.

 

[Lincs Observation]

It's the nasty streak coming at us on the left that is worrying me, this coming week may be a bit cool but at least it won't be the stinking u-bend of doom bubbling up poxy lows :-(

 

This is something i did allude to a month back about the effect of the jet this year, it was my reasoning that a more mobile jet would rule our weather has it has done for some months, my only disappointment at this time is we have more troughs than peaks at the moment, and i would like to see the Azores stick a bit better, however its early days and we need shifts upstream to start making a difference down in our part of the globe.

At least we dont have a southern tracking jet like the past few years so thats progress i guess

 

LO