Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[AWD]

Floods in week two.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

It's FI rubbish. For the more sensible and reliable timeframe it looks much drier, if not overly warm, as demonstrated by your bottom chart in your link.

[mushymanrob]

Oh golly.. 12z is pretty much the worst case scenario for summer fans..

 

Ill not worry about that until the anomaly charts suggest it could happen. Itll probably be gone next run.

[Milhouse]

Plenty of better runs withuin the ensembles as youd expect with a mean like this

 

[049balt]

It's FI rubbish. For the more sensible and reliable timeframe it looks much drier, if not overly warm, as demonstrated by your bottom chart in your link.

Yes, looking beyond five days this Spring is foolish, but we still do it!

[Milhouse]

120h on the ECM not looking too bad

 

 

And 144h looking a bit better still, with warm uppers coming round the top of the high

 

Edited May 20, 2015 by Milhouse

[Stuie]

Agreed Milhouse, I think we should chillout. See what the outlook looks like on Saturday but the ECM wants to keeps things settled into next Tuesday which is still really FI. Would be great to see Europe put up a battle against the trough to the East. My glass is half full.

[Captain Shortwave]

Agreed Milhouse, I think we should chillout. See what the outlook looks like on Saturday but the ECM wants to keeps things settled into next Tuesday which is still really FI. Would be great to see Europe put up a battle against the trough to the East. My glass is half full.

Indeed, out to day 10 there is very little cool or unsettled weather from the ECM, that said there isn't anything ground-breaking in the heat department either. Drier than normal with temperatures near or a little above. Especially so if we can get some good sunny spells, though with west/north west winds then you could struggle, especially in the west as a large sea fetch brings cloud and drizzle to these spots at times. Lots of changes to come, especially given the ECM has chopped and changed beyond the 5 day range.

Edited May 20, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

This evenings Ecm 12z is pretty good in terms of fine pleasantly warm weather, it's only T+192/216 hours which look a bit more unsettled before high pressure returns from T+240. Reading some comments today you would think it's a cool unsettled washout for the next few weeks but I don't see that at all, I think we will have a fair amount of dry, sunny and pleasantly warm weather, especially further south.

[mushymanrob]

The ecm looks cloudy to me.... Sorry...

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

just had a look at possible weather  in fantasy world  first week in June looking wet at the  moment!!!

[Smiler1709]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

just had a look at possible weather  in fantasy world  first week in June looking wet at the  moment!!!

Thank god it's pointless looking that far ahead then isn't it.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening folks! The model output looks very similar to what we have had for the whole of May, You can put lipstick or dress it up or even titivate the model output but there is no getting away from it the Uk will continue to endure cooler and unsettled weather for some time to come....

[Polar Maritime]

Thank god it's pointless looking that far ahead then isn't it.

No Model data is pointless, And is all worthy of discussion in here. 

[049balt]

Evening folks! The model output looks very similar to what we have had for the whole of May, You can put lipstick or dress it up or even titivate the model output but there is no getting away from it the Uk will continue to endure cooler and unsettled weather for some time to come....

Somewhere in between you and frosty is probably where we will end up.

[Frosty.]

Evening folks! The model output looks very similar to what we have had for the whole of May, You can put lipstick or dress it up or even titivate the model output but there is no getting away from it the Uk will continue to endure cooler and unsettled weather for some time to come....

It's nothing like as bad as you say, there will be a fair amount of dry, bright and pleasantly warm weather, the next few days look better, the weekend doesn't look bad, at least across southern uk and if the ecm is right, next week will be mainly dry, bar the occasional unsettled day with the best of the sunshine towards the south and east where it would also be pleasantly warm for most of the time.

[Captain Shortwave]

Evening folks! The model output looks very similar to what we have had for the whole of May, You can put lipstick or dress it up or even titivate the model output but there is no getting away from it the Uk will continue to endure cooler and unsettled weather for some time to come....

hmm

GFS which is more unsettled than the ECM isn't exactly striking wet for the next week. Western Scotland gets some rain which is of no surprise but for the majority less than 10mm over the coming week. Temperatures look okay too, even warm on a couple of days in the current period, of course northern areas will be cooler with fronts brushing the area at times.

[joggs]

Azores high most of winter,now most of spring.I really hope its not a summer with the high in situ.Next couple of weeks scream fairly average with cloudier cooler spells maybe drizzle,light rain on decaying fronts pushing south but where clearer skys can develop,feeling pleasant in the sun.Thats my take on the models at face value.Disappointing imo

[knocker]

"Will no one rid me of this troublesome trough?

 

It still seems very difficult to be confident about any evolution of this pattern we are stuck in at the moment with the Trough and HP playing ducks and drakes and with the vortex over Hudson and HP to the SE forcing quite a strong jet out of the NE. So variations on a theme in the near future and a continued watching brief.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

I'll take a punt on this weekend and say it will be quite pleasant for most except Sunday will bring some intermittent rain from the weakening front the worst being in Scotland. Cornwall should escape even this. Temps around 18C in the southern half of England

Edited May 20, 2015 by knocker

[Milhouse]

Evening folks! The model output looks very similar to what we have had for the whole of May, You can put lipstick or dress it up or even titivate the model output but there is no getting away from it the Uk will continue to endure cooler and unsettled weather for some time to come....

 

...Or you can cherry pick the coldest ECM chart from a reasonably decent run.

 

The mean too suggests a lot of dry weather to be had with southern England best positioned to experience some pleasant conditions.

 

Edited May 20, 2015 by Milhouse

[knocker]

The GFS this morning has ridging from the south west beginning of week after the reasonable weekend before the arrival of depressions on Thursday and Saturday giving wet days.

 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Knock, A cool unsettled N/W flow returns after the weekend into next week. The GFS does hint some Summery potential towards the end of the run. As the Jet meanders North pulling High Pressure North over the UK. 

 

Edited May 21, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

A pretty decent outlook from the models if you want dry and fairly settled weather with the Azores high influencing proceedings for a fair amount of the time.

For the bank holiday Saturday looks reasonable for most of the country, Sunday sees a front sink southwards giving some light rain, the south will remain fine and warm with temperatures into the low twenties. Monday looks cooler with just a few scattered showers. 

 

Beyond this it does look like we will see some rain during the second half of next week as low pressure moves ESE, though a long way off just yet.

 

It is worth noting that the GFS ens are sniffing a major pattern change at the beginning of June with pressure and temperatures rising. This also being sniffed at in the week 2  operational outputs of the ECM and GEM.

[coldcomfort]

On the face of it a less dire longer term outlook this morning as we move into June, with high pressure having replaced the low pressure previously touted, but as others pointed out yesterday it's a long way off and as such should be taken with an equally large pinch of salt - despite showing what most would call the preferred option. 

 

Shorter term we do see rather more robust ridging again, which kind of tilts the next 7 days back into the better, rather than worse than average camp, but giving the overall fickle, fragile setup I still wouldn't want to say which way things will ultimately break......classic case of more runs needed, probably lots of um! 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY MAY 21ST 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across the UK will decline later as a front moves slowly SE across the UK tonight and tomorrow weakening as it does.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming drier and brighter especially towards the SW but still rather cool with a little rain at times towards the North and NE.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream shows the flow currently well to the North of the UK before it diverts South across the UK later in the weekend. The flow then shows some desire to remain troughed across and near the UK but the strength of the flow is often weak and incoherent before settling to a point just to the North of the UK in a NE direction in two weeks time.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure out to the SW of the UK with a ridge towards us at times the dominant player of the weather over the coming two weeks. Weak troughs are shown to round it's Northern flank and then move down over the UK at times offering a little rain but a lot of dry and benign weather overall. there is a period in the middle of the run when low pressure takes a more commanding influence across the Uk for a time with rain and showers for all before the Azores High builds strongly across the UK at the end of the run with sunny and warm conditions for all two weeks from now.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run also shows a lot of High pressure dominance this morning and makes less of the unsettled period mid run with only the North having any meaningful effect from this. This run too shows the chance of High pressure building across the UK later with temperatures becoming warm for all. A chance of a thundery shower in the extreme South is possible by the end day of the run. 

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show total agreement on High pressure being the dominant weather pattern in two weeks time with various scenarios of positioning of the feature limiting differences in conditions to just varying degrees of warmth and sunshine.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a ridge of High pressure across the UK from a large High down to the SW of the UK lasting well into next week. The SW will see the best sunshine amounts and warmest conditions with a cool NW flow at times affecting the North and East but even here a lot of dry weather looks likely to ensue.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a series of weak troughs moving SE across the UK on Friday and again on Sunday with the now outdated 20hr chart likely to be replaced tonight by more of a High pressure influence into next week as well.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM this morning shows High pressure dominace too shifting it's centre more towards the NE late in the run. The weather will be best in the South and West in the first half of the run with cooler NW winds and a few showers affecting the East on occasion before all areas look like becoming dry and warmer late in the run as the NW flow becomes cut off.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the basic pattern of the rest of the output with High pressure down to the SW the dominant player. Dry and fine weather for many if not overly warm looks like the nain focus through next week with just a few showers at times towards the East.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today also runs the theme of High pressure to the SW throwing a ridge towards the UK and maintaining light winds from the NW and keeping dry weather going for many apart from a little rain in the far North and East at times. There could often be a lot of cloud in the flow and a hiatus occurs later next week as Low pressure over the NE is expected to throw it's influence over all areas for a time with rain and showers before High pressure rebuilds strongly again across the South at the end of the run.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows High pressure to the SW with a ridge close to Southern Britain while the North could be a little more changeable in a Westerly flow in occasional rain.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pendulum has swung back to more High pressure domination across the UK through next week as the influence of lower pressure from the North is reduced this morning.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 86.5 over UKMO's 83.4pts with GFS at 81.9. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 52.2 over 51.9. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 33.7pts to 32.9pts

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS Well the pendulum continues to sway backwards and forwards between the risk of more unsettled and maintained cool weather to drier and fine weather with nearer to average temperatures through next week. The pendulum this morning has swung very much back in favour of OK conditions likely next week. Winds will still have a Northerly component to them so no particularly high temperatures look likely but in the strong late May/early June sunshine it will feel pleasantly warm and amounts of rain look like becoming particularly small for much of the two week period. The South and West look best situated to receive the very best conditions while the North and East are at risk of troughs trickling down the Eastern flank of the ridge across the UK with a few light outbreaks of rain or showers here and there but even here dry weather will dominate. There is then a chance mid term that Low pressure might give a brief unsettled period late next week and the weekend but in the output that's shown out to two weeks from now there looks like a good chance that High pressure could return and this time in a more favourable position to bring some proper warm sunny June weather. So all in all a good set of output this morning if it's dry and fine weather your after and while not record breakingly warm pleasant enough for many looks the order of the day. Then later after a brief breakdown renewed High pressure could see the UK more Summery in two weeks time.

 

Next update from 08:00 Friday May 22nd 2015

[knocker]

Hope springs eternal in the human breast

 

The outlook certainly isn't dire even though the GEFS anomaly still has the trough just to the east at day ten. But then it's looking at height rises to the NE (we have seen this before) and we could be looking at something along these lines.