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Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

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A new thread for a new Month, What will May have in store?

 

As ever, Please keep it to friendly model related discussion in this thread, And head over to the banter Spring/Summer thread for moans, groans, ramps and more general chat:

https://forum.netwea...5/#entry3178481

 

We also have the Spring thread open for wider discussion:

https://forum.netwea...41-spring-2015/

 

If you're wondering where you can view the models, Many of them are available here on Netweather, Including the GFS,ECM, Ensembles, our own NetWx models, and others - All available from the Charts and Data page here:

http://www.netweathe...-and-data;sess=

 

Old thread is here.. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82656-model-output-discussion-spring-5th-march-onwards-6z/page-65#entry3196188

 

Please continue, PM.

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The GFS this morning shows bouts of unsettled weather from the West as lows swing in off the Atlantic, Only the very last few frames hint something more settled. The ECMWF does try to bring much warmer and settled weather up from the South around the 11th..

 

ecmt850.216.png

 

h850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

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Still a lot of uncertainty even at 5 days out.

GFS as PM says is unsettled throughout near enough.

gfs-0-120.png?0

 

UKMO on the other hand builds high pressure in at 5 days out

UW120-21.GIF?03-06

 

ECM slides another low through the country but builds the high in at day 7

ECM1-120.GIF?03-12

ECM1-168.GIF?03-12

 

The GEM pretty much matches the GFS operational out to day 10.

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The Ecm 00z is going for a warm up from the south by next weekend, it becomes very warm in the south with low to mid 20's celsius, another taste of summer could be on the way.

post-4783-0-61035500-1430637556_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-87614700-1430637565_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-60590100-1430637577_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-88580700-1430637583_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-02355800-1430637595_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-64269600-1430637639_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-63206400-1430637799_thumb.pn

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the anomaly charts are sticking to their expected outlook, high somewhere close to us/to our near east, mean trough in the north mid atlantic. upper airflow from the southwest.

post-2797-0-07806900-1430637876_thumb.gi post-2797-0-66116700-1430637887_thumb.gi

so id expect the ops that show a warm enough, unsettled flow (northwest being breeziest, coolest, wettest, whilst the southeast is sunniest and driest) southwesterly pattern to be the ones most likely to become reality.

of course that doesnt rule out temporary incursions from the northwest or south from time to time.

to me, the outlook is looking pretty normal which isnt bad for may :)

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY

THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST

POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON

SUNDAY MAY 3RD 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure will clear NE over England and Wales today but linger over Scotland. A showery SW flow will follow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Unsettled  at first with rain or showers. Perhaps becoming drier and warmer, at least for a time later.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is currently blowing East over Southern England, France and Spain. It then turns more SW to NE across these same areas later in the week before easing North and setting up an undulating flow across the UK and a more NW to SE orientation by the end stages of the period, still close to the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows Low pressure and troughs moving North over and to the West of the UK over the coming days. Spells of rain followed by more showery weather will occur between now and the middle of next week, heavy at times. Later in the week things improve for a time as ridge develops and moves NE and though thereafter further Low pressure interventions from the West  mean further rain at times for most the emphasis shifts more towatds the North and West with some longer drier spells further to the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS Control run this morning shows a similar changeable and Westerly based theme of weather with rain or showers at times over all areas over the whole two weeks with occasional transient ridges of High pressure at times giving brief drier and brighter periods almost anywhere but perhaps more noticeable towards the 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today continues to show the biggest chance of High pressure having some sort of influence across the UK in two weeks time but with a sizeable share showing some Low pressure influence too. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure easing away to the NE soon after midweek before a ridge of High pressure builds across the UK by the end of the week with a weak trough bringing somewhat cloudier conditions into the SW by next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS  The Fax Charts this morning mirror the raw data reasonably well today with the troughs moving away NE followed by the showery Westerly flow too by the end of the week as a ridge of High pressure approaches from the SW.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM  GEM this morning shows the same Low pressure and wet conditions clear to showers on a Westerly by midweek, the showers then eases as the pattern slowly changes to a classic NW to SE split with rain at times in the North and West in a blustery wind while the South and East become drier and brighter with any rain more intermittent and some lengthy dry and bright spells. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows better conditions developing later in the week as the showery low pressure midweek fills and becomes replaced by High pressure with a lot of fine and bright conditions for many areas next weekend as the ridge drifts only very slowly away East by Sunday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM takes rather longer to allow better weather conditions to get a stranglehold across the UK as a second Low remains focused to affect Southern Britain late in the week before then better weather sets up for many especially the South and East where a ridge brings some warm and settled weather develops while the North and West are most likely then to see occasional rain on a Westerly feed.

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z)  The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows a slow relaxation of the recent High pressure shown across the UK in 10 days as it drifts it slowly SE to lie to the SE of the UK in 10 days with somewhat less settled weather on a SW'ly likely to be affecting the North and West by then..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to be hesitant on the extent and duration of High pressure in Week 2 of the period.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.3 pts followed by UKM at 96.6 pts and GFS at 95.9. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 88.1 over UKMO's 87.3 pts with GFS at 84.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 58.1 pts over GFS's 56.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 41.3 pts over GFS at 39.3. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

 MY THOUGHTS   The models continue to toy around with various synoptics over the next few weeks which differ slightly from one another but in the main feature roughly a similar message. The main focus of this week will be the very unsettled conditions of the next 3 days with rain and strong winds likely as Low pressure trundles North across the UK on Monday night and Tuesday with a showery Westerly following. It then is well supported by all output that pressure rises later in the week with better weather gradually moving up from the SW although ECM delays this by pulling in another weaker Low to Southern areas for a time towards the weekend. However, it too eventually shows High pressure over or to the SE taking control and it looks like all areas may well see fine and dry conditions for a time before some ingress from Atlantic Westerlies and unsettled weather affects at least the North and West later and occasionally elsewhere too. Temperatures through the period look respectable at times especially in the fine period next weekend but when cloud and rain ensues temperatures will hold close to average as the source remains Westerly

Next update from 08:00 Monday May 4th 2015 

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It looks like we are entering a period of  unsettled weather with only the South East getting occasional dry periods as high pressure builds every now and again. Temps. look ok with strong sunshine making it feel pleasant . High pressure never seems that far away which is a good indication that at some stage we will get some settled spell but we might have to wait until later in the month.

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Looking at the beebs week ahead forecast they are backing UKMO for Friday with high pressure over the UK

met.120.pngUntitled.png

 

The unsettled GFS isn't getting backed at this stage

 

h500slp.png

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Afternoon all :)

 

My first chance to comment on the models for a few days:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html

 

After its strongly negative phase at the beginning of the week the NAO has been returning toward neutrality

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

 

But that neutrality isn't going to last so any southern-based HP isn't going to last at all and a return to northern blocking suggested by 06Z output seems to be the favourite at present

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015050306/gfs-0-264.png?6

 

The jet still running to the south and unsettled conditions for many to mid month beyond which it's hard to say.

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Still big differences at t144 between UKMO, GFS and GEM

 

Rtavn1441.gifRukm1441.gifgem-0-144.png?12

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Evening all

 

Huge scatter in the GEFS 12z tonight after next Friday. No idea whats going to happen and neither do the models looking at this. What a mess:

 

graphe_ens4_sqk1.gif

 

 

What does look more certain is that this week coming will be mostly wet and unsettled, so not a great start to May. The mean into week 2 also keeping things fairly average. The GFS 12z takes a dive after this with it becoming the worst case scenario into FI so not likely to be as bad as the run looks.

 

I think from this, we are probably looking at a poor first half of May with rain and showers around with average temps and then probably an improvement for the second half. Hard to say as high pressure has already been pushed back and things can change but perhaps a month of 2 halves coming up :)

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Tonights GFS ens shows a much more settled 2nd half of the month with pressure gradually rising from the south

 

gens-21-1-264.pnggens-21-1-312.png?12gens-21-1-360.pnggens-21-1-384.png?12

 

Impossible to have any confidence in this given the time scale but something to keep an eye on for the 2nd half of this month

 

Back to the closer range and ECM is closer to UKMO leaving a battle with GFS and GEM

 

ECM1-144.GIF?03-0UW144-21.GIF?03-19

 

gfs-0-144.png?12gem-0-144.png?12

 

The Euro's v the Americans for the end of this week, let the battle commence

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Evening all

 

Huge scatter in the GEFS 12z tonight after next Friday. No idea whats going to happen and neither do the models looking at this. What a mess:

 

graphe_ens4_sqk1.gif

 

 

What does look more certain is that this week coming will be mostly wet and unsettled, so not a great start to May. The mean into week 2 also keeping things fairly average. The GFS 12z takes a dive after this with it becoming the worst case scenario into FI so not likely to be as bad as the run looks.

 

I think from this, we are probably looking at a poor first half of May with rain and showers around with average temps and then probably an improvement for the second half. Hard to say as high pressure has already been pushed back and things can change but perhaps a month of 2 halves coming up :)

Reading between the lines it does look like we will some improvement after mid week

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At least the NOAA 6-10 shows that air will be sourced from a pretty warm area showing heights of about 564DM over the far south. Also similar idea on the 8-14. Just how settled or unsettled is of course not really clear just yet but perhaps a NW-SE split showing?

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

GFS anomaly this morning did not really have the same pattern but the ECMWF version was quite similar. So it would look quite likely that the upper air pattern those two are predicting (NOAA/ECMWF) will be close to the mark 6-10 days down the line.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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LOL :rofl: The gfs and ecm show some sort of handshake  at the outer realms of T+240 . Before that lots of weather to be had :closedeyes:

post-6830-0-76758200-1430683223_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-70576200-1430683252_thumb.pn

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Seems to me the noaa anomaly has backed off from the jet stream being northerly tracking and now going for a north south divide instead: 

 

Looking at the issues from 30 April the idea it shows tonight has been there since then?

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Would certainly not want to forecast past 10 days at present .

but a fair chance looking at tonights charts that high pressure will be influensing our weather towards mid month .

Just a slight adjustment of where any high sits could mean average temp or rather warm if the ridging is in our favour .

Nice to see plenty of info from posters ,and its great to pop in this forum and catch up on some weather news ,i seem to spend most time these days looking after elderly relatives , certainly some lively weather today ,take care all . :drinks:

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Seems to me the noaa anomaly has backed off from the jet stream being northerly tracking and now going for a north south divide instead: 

 

Looking at the issues from 30 April the idea it shows tonight has been there since then?

 

yep... very consistent, the nw/se divide you mentioned earlier looks pretty likely, although the latest 8-10 dayer appears to be hinting at a more wsw upper flow so possibly flattening out?..

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The output still looks messy as heights try to build further north in Europe whilst simultaneously being repressed by any heights developing to our north west.

At the moment the models do try to suggest that the Azores high could hold more influence from next weekend onwards.

Day 6 charts

ECM

ECM1-144.GIF?04-12

 

UKMO

UW144-21.GIF?04-06

 

GFS

gfs-0-144.png?0

 

GEM

gem-0-144.png?00

 

The Euros the fastest to build high pressure in, though at least the GFS/GEM do show some influence at times. It is worth noting that given the longwave pattern, any more settled weather we do get could also come with some very warm weather as the winds swing to a southerly direction with the heat over Iberia wafting up towards the UK at times. For those wanting a taste of early summer, the UKMO looks best at delivering this the quickest and possibly the most robust looking heights.

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No great surprises seeing GFS backing away from its unsettled outlook this morning at t144

 

12z yesterday at t144

 

gfs-2015050312-0-144.png?12

 

And this mornings

 

gfs-0-144.png?0

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY MAY 4TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will move NE over the UK today followed by a deepening Low pressure moving North over the UK tonight and tomorrow.

 


 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled  at first with rain or showers. Perhaps becoming drier and warmer, at least for a time later.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream currently blowing over the South and to the South of the UK will continue for a few more days before it eases North to blow across the North of the UK in a NE'ly direction. There are then signs of it wanting to return South again late in the period.

 


 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows complex Low pressure over and around the UK easing away North after midweek as a ridge moves across the UK from the SW. weaker Low pressure and troughs then brush Sw and then NW Britain towards the weekend while pressure remains HIgh to the SE. Some more unsettled weather looks possible to return from off the Atlantic late in the run.

 


 


 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows the operational quite closely through Week 1 but by Week 2 the risk of more unsettled weather continuing for much of the UK is greater with rain at times for all in average temperatures. Then rather than build High pressure from the SE this run indicates pressure building to the North sending any rain risk down to more Southern areas while the North sees the driest conditions.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a theme of High pressure out over the Atlantic the most likely setup in two weeks time but how close and how influential is much harder to decipher. 

 


 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows things settling down over the South and East Britain over the end of week and weekend period as the Low pressure complexes of this week move away to the NE setting up a more traditional NW to SE split in the weather. 

 


 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning mirror the raw data reasonably well today with the only difference looking like being how significant the push of Low pressure from the SW late in the week will be.

 


 

GEM GEM this morning shows a changeable week to come with rain at times as the current Low pressure zone moving up from the South is replaced by another weaker version towards the weekend. Pressure then is shown to build strongly for a time early next week with some fine and warm weather to be enjoyed before the model brings back the influence of Atlantic Low pressure again to end the run. 

 


 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows changeable conditions through the week with Low pressure never far enough away to prevent rain or showers at times for most. The pattern looks fairly similar next week though the South and East look like fairing rather better by the start of the new week.

 


 

ECM ECM also shows a fly in the ointment Low at the weekend delaying any better weather for the South before the NW/SE pattern emerges easly next week with some decent weather in the South and East for a time while rain at times continues to the NW spreading back to all areas by Day 10.

 


 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  shows a trend towards rather more unsettled Atlantic based weather moving down over the UK slowly from the NW with rain at times eventually likely for all after a better period especially in the South.

 


 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to be hesitant on the extent and duration of High pressure in Week 2 of the period.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.3 pts followed by UKM at 96.6 pts and GFS at 95.6. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 88.0 over UKMO's 87.0 pts with GFS at 84.5. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 57.4 pts over GFS's 55.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 39.8 pts over GFS at 39.1. 

 


 


 


 


 

 

MY THOUGHTS The pattern for this week is largely agreed upon by all models with any differences between them not emerging until Friday and beyond. Low pressure moving North across and around the UK will ensure plenty of rain and showers at times for all in a blustery wind until a ridge moving North over Friday kills off the rain and showers to leave a decent day. Then the complications arise with the onset of Low pressure and troughs edging up from the SW over Friday. Some models such as ECM make enough of this to bring a further wet spell to parts of the South on Saturday while others just send a light band of rain North up the West side of the UK while other areas stay largely dry if rather cloudy. Then the models come together again for a time in promoting a spell of better weather in association with High pressure to the SE and bringing warm SW winds across the UK with rain only likely to affect the NW for a time before it looks like spilling SE again to many other areas in the 10-14 day period. Only the GFS Control Run throws a slightly different message from this as it shows pressure building to the North of the UK by the end of the period with some rain still in the South as winds switch Easterly. However, this run doesn't have much cross model support so I would suggest while never being high Summer in the next two weeks there will be some windows of reasonably warm and dry weather especially over the South and East and equally some more changeable conditions with rain at times, this especially but not exclusively towards the North and West. At least temperatures no longer look to be a major issue across the UK in the next few weeks.

 

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday May 5th 2015

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The Ecm 00z shows a warm up from the south by the end of this week but more especially through next week with temperatures eventually into the low to mid 20's celsius across the south and east, especially the southeast with +15 T850 hPa (564 dam thicknesses) very close to the SE at T+240 hours.

I'm hoping we will see a marked warm up next week :)

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post-4783-0-06549900-1430731810_thumb.pn

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The anomalies this morning still uncertain regarding the evolution post T144. At that time both the GEFS and ECM have troughs mid Atlantic and Scandinavia with ridging over the UK. But winding on to T240 this ridging is transitory with the Atlantic trough swinging east and bringing the UK back into the SW cyclonic circulation. Although it must be said the GEFS is much more emphatic with the SE alignment of the trough than the ECM

 

Looking in the  ext period there is a marked reluctance to advance the ridging further than the south of the UK.

Charts weatherbell

post-12275-0-47992300-1430735970_thumb.p

post-12275-0-42945400-1430735978_thumb.p

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Quite a turn around from GFS at t144 though no real surprise given the euro's were going for something different

 

06z yesterday

 

gfs-2015050306-0-144.png?6

 

Today

 

gfs-0-144.png?6

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Medium to longer term, things are looking up with more in the way of settled and warm weather, especially for the south & east / SE. The GEFS 6z mean shows a general improvement next week and further ahead with high pressure in the ascendancy. And in addition, the models show an improving picture by the coming weekend with lighter winds / calmer and mainly dry conditions with warm sunny spells. I also like the met office extended outlook which mentions above average temperatures and a trend towards settled :)

post-4783-0-40466800-1430753089_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-36438400-1430753103_thumb.gi

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