May 2015 CET forecasts

[Weather26]

10.7c to the 21st

 

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average 

[Thundery wintry showers]

May 1996 had persistent northerly and north-easterly winds until the 18th which were consistently sourced well within the Arctic Circle, and the sea surface temperatures around the British Isles were unusually cool due to a fairly cold winter and then a cold cloudy March.  I also recall that cloud amounts were not generally excessive (sunshine for the month mostly being close to average) which meant that temperatures were able to fall significantly at night, unlike in many cool dull months when high minima prevent a particularly low mean CET from arising.  I recall that around the 20th, the winds switched to a westerly and temperatures during the last third of the month were mostly near or just slightly below average, and then there was the warm day on the 30th.

Edited May 22, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 9.5C while maxima look like hitting about 19C, so an increase to 10.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

10.9C to the 23rd (11.6)

11.0C to the 24th (12.5)

10.9C to the 25th (9.6)

11.0C to the 26th (12.6)

11.0C to the 27th (11.7)

11.0C to the 28th (12.2)

11.0C to the 29th (10.5)

11.1C to the 30th (11.7)

11.0C to the 31st (10.8]

 

50/50 at this stage as to whether we finish above 11C or not before corrections.

Edited May 22, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[Eugene]

Sunshine amounts were 119% here last week with below average temps, not cloudy at all like some say, they are official weather station figures too.

[Relativistic]

Sunshine amounts were 119% here last week with below average temps, not cloudy at all like some say, they are official weather station figures too.

 

Definitely feels like it in Birmingham. It's so annoying studying for exams when it's so sunny outside.

[Weather26]

10.8c to the 22nd

 

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Quick rise to 10.5C in Sunny Sheffield -1.3C from average.

[reef]

Almost exactly average here to the 23rd (vs running 1981-2010 average):

 

Mean Max: 15.3C (+0.2C)

Mean Min: 7.0C (+0.0C)

 

Mean: 11.2C (+0.1C)

[Don]

That genuinely made my jaw drop. That figure is incredible. How did it end up at over 9C then, a warm up in the final week?

 

I didn't realise it was that cold up to the final week either.  I think it was during this month that Michael Fish said "At this rate, north easterly winds will become the prevailing wind direction!"

[Summer Sun]

10.9c to the 23rd

 

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited May 24, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Lettucing Gutted]

I didn't realise it was that cold up to the final week either.  I think it was during this month that Michael Fish said "At this rate, north easterly winds will become the prevailing wind direction!"

He was ultimately wrong about Northeasterlies becoming the prevailing wind direction.  The last 18 years have been exceptionally Southwesterly!

[Summer Sun]

11.0c to the 24th

 

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

A little perplexed why bbc commentators keep saying temps are some 2 to 3 degrees below average, yet the mean is currently bang on CET average. Are they referring to mean maxima temps which may explain things..

 

May is likely to end up quite a deceptive month if you take CET at face value, it masks the consistently below maxima and is largely a reflection on above average minima..

[Relativistic]

A little perplexed why bbc commentators keep saying temps are some 2 to 3 degrees below average, yet the mean is currently bang on CET average. Are they referring to mean maxima temps which may explain things..

 

May is likely to end up quite a deceptive month if you take CET at face value, it masks the consistently below maxima and is largely a reflection on above average minima..

 

I'm pretty sure they're referring to maxima. I still don't think though that the CET is entirely bang on where it should be, seems like it should be a tad lower to me.

[reef]

CET mean max: 14.8C (-0.5C) to the 24th.

CET mean min: 7.2C (+0.6C) to the 25th.

 

It looks pretty spot on to me. Certainly here in the east it hasn't been even as bad as that with a mean max so far of 15.5C. Today was forecast at 13-14C on the BBC but reached 15.9C for example.

 

I've a feeling that when the charts come out at the end of the month there will be a marked east/south-east and west/north-west split.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 10.6C although a low Max today for us this should be offset by a higher min so I expect no change tomorrow for us. Reckon final figure for us around 10.8C which would be -1c below average.

[Summer Sun]

11.0c to the 25th

 

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 8.9C while maxima look like reaching close to 16C, so an increase to 11.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:
 

11.1C to the 27th (11.0)

11.1C to the 28th (11.8]

11.1C to the 29th (10.2)

11.0C to the 30th (9.4)

11.0C to the 31st (9.3)

 

10.9C to 11.2C before corrections methinks, so 10.5C to 11.2C after.

[damianslaw]

Good chance we will come in ever so slightly below the 61-90 average, the first time since August 2014.

[DAVID SNOW]

Adding to my post from yesterday  I now recon a below average CET is looking more likely than not. imho.

 

I think you have missed the early prediction Damien

[Summer Sun]

11.1c to the 26th

 

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[ARTDEMOLE]

Going UP nicely ....

[Summer Sun]

Global Warming on TWO is going for 10.77C as the final figure which if it is, is 0.54C below the 1971-2000 mean and 0.89C below the 1981-2010 mean.

[summer blizzard]

An incredibly average year so far.

[Summer Sun]

11.1c to the 27th

 

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average