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May 2015 CET forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The minimum today is 10.1C while maxima look like reaching the high 14s, so an increase to 10.5C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

10.3C to the 6th (9.8]
10.3C to the 7th (9.8]
10.2C to the 8th (9.9)
10.4C to the 9th (11.7)
10.1C to the 10th (7.9)
10.4C to the 11th (12.6)
10.8C to the 12th (15.4)
10.9C to the 13th (12.8]
11.2C to the 14th (14.2)
 
A very mild GFS this morning, taking up to the 81-10 average by the 12th and above thereafter.
Also, if this mornings 10.1C minimum is confirmed, it will the the first >10C, and highest, minimum of the year so far.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

10.4c to the 6th

 

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

10.4c to the 6th

 

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

 

 

These are against the rolling average.

 

 For instance we are 1.3 degree below the average 81-10 CET value for May.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

A very average start to the month it is then and i would expect us to creep above the rolling 81-10 average by the end of the upcoming warm spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

These are against the rolling average.

 

 For instance we are 1.3 degree below the average 81-10 CET value for May.

Surely it makes sense to compare the rolling average with the current rolling CET figure though considering the beginning of May on average is much cooler than the end.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Surely it makes sense to compare the rolling average with the current rolling CET figure though considering the beginning of May on average is much cooler than the end.

 

 

Yes its good to compare the rolling averages, especially in months with a cooling or warming trend (most pronounced in Spring and Autumn), but there have been many months that buck the 'average trend'. Therefore its good to compare with the final CET figure as well - especially in July/Aug and Jan/Feb where there is less of a difference between CET values for the start and end of the month. Just my opinion.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

10.2C to the 7th

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2015

 

Yesterday was 9.8C. The minimum today is 4.4C while maxima look like reaching the high 14s, so remaining on 10.2C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

10.3C to the 9th (11.9)
10.5C to the 10th (12.0)
10.8C to the 11th (14.2)
11.0C to the 12th (12.4)
10.9C to the 13th (10.6)
10.9C to the 14th (10.9)
10.8C to the 15th (8.8]
10.7C to the 16th (8.9)
10.7C to the 17th (11.3)
 
GFS this morning shows us climbing above both the 81-10 and 61-90 averages by the 12th, before dropping back to the 61-90 average during mid month. All in all, a very average outlook temperature-wise.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

10.2c to the 8th

 

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

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10.2c to the 8th

 

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

 

 

An average CET mean like that won't  be reached after May until maybe mid October, shows you how rare very warm weather is even in May.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 9.7C at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

10.3c to the 9th

 

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

I know it's only the 10th today, but with the way the models are trending I would say that guesses above 12 degrees are probably out of the running.  imho of course.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

If the average for the month stays below 11.0c, only two members would be in the running to win this month as most members have got their guesses between 11.0c and 12.0c

Edited by Weather26
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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

If the average for the month stays below 11.0c, only two members would be in the running to win this month as some everybody has got their guesses between 11.0c and 12.0c

 

Be interesting to see what BFTV makes of the outlook :)

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The minimum today is 7.2C while maxima look like reaching the mid 17s, so an increase to 10.5C is likely on the next update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

10.8C to the 11th (14.0)
11.0C to the 12th (12.7)
10.9C to the 13th (10.4)
10.9C to the 14th (10.2)
10.8C to the 15th (10.2)
10.9C to the 16th (11.3)
10.7C to the 17th (8.7)
10.8C to the 18th (10.9)
10.8C to the 19th (12.6)
 
Averaging 11.3C over the next 10 days, which is just 0.1C below the 81-10 average and 0.1C above the 61-90 average. The British Isles are right near the boundary of cold northerlies to the north and much warmer southerlies just south over the continent, so expect the outlook to change substantially over the next few days as the forecast alters the boundary between those air masses.
 
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

10.4c to the 10th

 

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: anticyclonic unless a snow storm
  • Location: Coventry

If the average for the month stays below 11.0c, only two members would be in the running to win this month as most members have got their guesses between 11.0c and 12.0c

 

I think you are right.  One of the low calls could be hitting the jackpot this month.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Not unhappy with the current outlook for an average out-turn.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

10.8c to the 11th

 

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Yesterday, at 15.1C, is provisionally the warmest day of the year so far.

 

A minimum today of 9.5C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 15s, so an increase to 11.0C is likely on tomorrows update, possibly the high point for the month.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

10.9C to the 13th (10.3)
10.8C to the 14th (8.9)
10.7C to the 15th (9.7)
10.6C to the 16th (9.3)
10.5C to the 17th (9.0)
10.6C to the 18th (10.7)
10.4C to the 19th (8.5)
10.4C to the 20th (8.8]
10.3C to the 21st (8.4)
 
A cool 7 to 10 days coming up, which could have the CET close to 1C below the 81-10 average going into the last 10 days, and 0.5C below the 61-90 average. At this early stage, a value below the 81-10 average is beginning to look slightly more likely than not, though it would only take a few warm days to turn things around.
 
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A consistently cooler than average outlook for the foreseeable increases the chances of the first below average CET month since August. It could end up being notably very disappointing for maxima, I think the highest so far this month was 22 degrees yesterday.

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