Yorkshire and Lincolnshire - Weather Chat

[Sara_south_yorks]

Thank you KS  

[saint]

Think we might have some sleet here in Leeds, how exciting! 

[Sara_south_yorks]

4 minutes ago, saint said:

Think we might have some sleet here in Leeds, how exciting! 

Send it my way, I'm really jealous 

[SouthYorks]

If we are to believe the latest model output, with the gradual trend to move the pattern West to the UKMO model view, I would say we are unlikely to see snow other than higher ground in the next 5-6 days. Best chance is Wednesday into Thursday with a wintry mix but then dry but cold Friday through to Monday/Tuesday.  

Cold and dry is much better than the rain and wind we endured during December but personally I would like to see some snow, but I think that is unlikely with the current setup.  Hopefully we will some snow late January and into February.

[joggs]

Hope that developing low tracks a touch further south Tom eve/night.

[Cheese Rice]

NMM has freezing levels down to 200m.

So I think anywhere above 100m has a shot at seeing some lying snow. Below that a wintry mixture of rain sleet and wet snow.

 

 

[The PIT]

Local forecast back to sleet although I don't take much notice of that. Surprised to wake up to rain pounding on the roof due to a brief rogue shower. That's with a dew point of just above zero.

Not a cold start to the day temps a degree above normal but still falling.

[cowdog]

Already had a dusting of snow here (7am shower).

Looking at the radar 2 important points -

 

All showers over or near the region are as snow at the moment, on the radar whether thats true in reality is another question. They appear to be streamers that are dying off over the Pennines.

The showers for later are over Ireland at moment and seem a lot bigger than forecast, could be potential for more than a few CM's from it.

[NorthYorksWeather]

13 minutes ago, cowdog said:

Already had a dusting of snow here (7am shower).

Looking at the radar 2 important points -

 

All showers over or near the region are as snow at the moment, on the radar whether thats true in reality is another question. They appear to be streamers that are dying off over the Pennines.

The showers for later are over Ireland at moment and seem a lot bigger than forecast, could be potential for more than a few CM's from it.

Uppers are currently -5/6c hence why most showers are falling as snow, when the precip arrives later this aft uppers are forecast to be between -2 and -4c, which will make it much more marginal.

I think to start with precip will struggle to fall as snow under 400m asl due to falling during the day and during the warmest uppers, but as the evening progresses the snowline will drop gradually as nightime arrives and slightly colder uppers are mixed back in from the west. I heard on the BBC forecast last night that snow could start falling down to 100-200m for a time, so Id say Cowdog you will be in for a decent snowfall aslong as you get the precip.

 Id be feeling quite confident if I was above 200m for some sort of covering, between 100-200m snow may fall but may well struggle to settle and below 100m like me load your car up and drive up a hill cos you aint getting sod all .

Good luck to you all, I finish work at 10pm and will have the camera, snow tires, shovel ready, will be keeping an eye on road cameras and if anywhere looks snowy I'm heading there. Got tomorrow and Friday off aswell so heading to hills to get my snowfix, its been over a month!!

[cowdog]

51 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Uppers are currently -5/6c hence why most showers are falling as snow, when the precip arrives later this aft uppers are forecast to be between -2 and -4c, which will make it much more marginal.

0z Euro4 run has the uppers at -5 to -4 from the afternoon all through the night for the whole of our region, so it might not be as marginal as originally thought (Sth Lincs excluded as that's in its own world, and probably needs -18 to see snow ). May even get the odd snow shower at lower levels for the odd lucky spot if they can get -6's, which could be possible as they are never far away.

 

Its the same as all snow events, it really does become nowcasting and using the short range models as a small shift makes a lot of difference.

Edited January 13, 2016 by cowdog

[cowdog]

Hate to double post but -

 

Weather Warning Issued for this Afternoon to tomorrow morning.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1452643200&regionName=yh

"upland areas of northern England, including cross-Pennine routes, where 3 to 6 cm may fall in a number of areas, with possibly as much as 10 cm locally, mainly above elevations of 300 metres."

Covers the western areas of the region aka the Pennines.

Edited January 13, 2016 by cowdog

[Sara_south_yorks]

I'm Deffo not expecting to see anything to be honest, I think a measly 99m asl really wont be enough, think it might be time for a move...any suggestions?  haha.

Oh well hope the areas lucky to get the snow enjoy it! 

[Snow-Capped]

Had sleety showers overnight. I live directly in the yellow warning zone so at 250m asl I am hoping to see some of the white stuff falling and lying overnight so long as the PPN actually hits us and is heavy enough.

Edited January 13, 2016 by GCarr

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Looks very marginal for here tonight but even just seeing some snow falling would be better than the rest of winter so far!

Looking forward to some frosty mornings come the weekend as well...

[Cold Winter]

Having looked at the various shorter term models (Hirlam, NMM, Euro4), looking like most low level areas will see a rain/sleet mix with snow reserved for areas over 200m. Obviously favoured spots being the Pennines, Peak District, NYMoors and Wolds. Would be very surprised to see anything at low levels by tomorrow morning.

There is the possibility of some snow at lower levels during the day tomorrow as the showers clear southeast, but as ever with these situations it can all change pretty quickly.

Wouldn't it be nice to have a nailed on non-marginal event for once! Struggle to remember the last time that happened for low level Yorkshire.

[The PIT]

Too far south old sunny old sheffield......

[Cheese Rice]

NMM looks fantastic 

  

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Too far south old sunny old sheffield......

I wouldn't entirely rule out a dusting at your altitude by day break tomorrow looking at the forecast?

A different story here of course with my bad altitude!

[Cheese Rice]

The front is really peppering up now, temperature here is slowly dropping currently 3.c (forecast 4.c for this time). In any other situation I'd say we were right on track with the current temperature profile but i'm expecting cold rain until the front rotates and drags in colder air during the early hours. 

 

[saint]

It's feeling really quite bitter out there now (in comparison to this winter so far), and the charts CR posted certainly look interesting. 

Edited January 13, 2016 by saint

[winterof79]

I used to have time for Paul Hudson but he seems to have lost interest in colder synoptics.The same happened to Darren Bett when he did local weather.Just been on radio Leeds bigging up the rain and sleet maybe wet snow on hill tops.....turkey.

He also said overnight temps of around zero for the cold snap a day ago.Looking forward to radar watching v soon

Edited January 13, 2016 by winterof79

[NorthYorksWeather]

Metoffice is forecasting sleet at my location tomorrow morning at 50m which coincides with the cold air wrapping around the North west side of the low, this is when lower levels have the best chance of seeing some snowfall. Looking a bit further ahead there is a chance of some NE areas of our region seeing snow showers for a short period Friday night and into Saturday, strong winds slightly east of North with -8c uppers overnight may well throw up some surprises for those east of York.

[Harsh Climate]

Sennybridge in south wales reporting heavy snow showers at 1C. It's 800 odd feet but got to be a good sign for some of us. I'm expecting it to come in as sleet and turn to snow within a few hours after. Whether it settles or not today is another matter though..

 

[Cheese Rice]

Freezing levels according to the NMM get down to 100m during mid morning so maybe a tricky commute. 

[The PIT]

Well one quick observation dew points a lot lower than forecast and temps slightly lower. Dew point 0.4C and temp 3.4C however it rained this morning at 2.6C and a dew point of 0C