Scotland - Weather Chat

[Guest]

The charts are showing a pretty decent chance of snow for some northern & eastern areas tomorrow afternoon/evening. Timings are a little different on the different charts but the theme is much the same.

 

 

 

Is that not a goid thing? The PV sitting there i mean.Or atleast for coldies

 

Not usually, it's a long story lol

[Hairy Celt]

It's the wee strips of green and blue around the coasts (on the ppn type charts) that irritate the mongoose out of me....

[Ravelin]

Is it just me wanting today to pass as quickly as possible in order to see what tomorrow brings?

 

Virtually cloudless and sunny morning here, with just a light wind and kind of mild(ish) at around 7C. If the forecast is correct we should top out at around 8C mid-afternoon, then the downward trend starts in earnest and lasts until Monday. Best chance for me to see some snow appears to be later on tomorrow, but the precipitation forecasts seem to change every 5 minutes. Hopefully I'm far enough inland to avoid falling victim to HC's 'coastal Mongoose strips' (at least at home. At work, Dyce might be to close to the North Sea).

[Gogoslo]

Nope.   You are not the only one Ravelin.    Will come soon enough though.       Will be interesting to see what happens and if any of us get to see a few flakes on snow.  

 

Being out in Balmedie,  we have been spoilt with some stunning sunrises over the last few weeks and maybe just maybe we will see some snow later on tomorrow / Saturday am blowing in from the north sea.

 

time will tell.

[101_North]

Warnings out for much of Northern and Eastern Scotland. Predictably stopping short at anything much inland down here - standard Northerly stuff! 

[Guest]

Is it just me wanting today to pass as quickly as possible in order to see what tomorrow brings?

 

Virtually cloudless and sunny morning here, with just a light wind and kind of mild(ish) at around 7C. If the forecast is correct we should top out at around 8C mid-afternoon, then the downward trend starts in earnest and lasts until Monday. Best chance for me to see some snow appears to be later on tomorrow, but the precipitation forecasts seem to change every 5 minutes. Hopefully I'm far enough inland to avoid falling victim to HC's 'coastal Mongoose strips' (at least at home. At work, Dyce might be to close to the North Sea).

 

You're not alone on wanting today to pass as quickly as possible. Not only is there the snow potential for here tomorrow, I've got my kids down for their fortnightly weekend with us so it's an extreme double whammy of wanting today out of the way. As I've just posted on Facebook "Stuff Xmas, this will do me nicely"

[edo]

Coastal mongoose snow interference...Hawesy suffers big-time from that...I like it HC that's a keeper terminology...going to be spitting feathers....I mean enjoying reading others snow reports on here at weekend...

[November13]

Why are cold spells short and mild spells long. Couldn't it be the other way about it's so unfair!

 

It's a bit like the fruit pastiles. You always get hunners of yellow and orange ones that nobody wants and a few token red and black ones!

[LomondSnowstorm]

It's a slight more extensive warning than it could've been given it's a northerly, which is nice.

The reason I'm guessing is that is a decaying occlusion tomorrow afternoon/evening rather than simply slightly more organised convective showers, so while there will bea bit of a wishbone effect it might not be too bad, especially south of the Forth:

Timing wise there's a bit of a difference between the models - the NMM has a band tracking into southern/central Scotland around 2pm then turning to snow on its back-edge, with what then looks like another band emerging two hours later, initially quite weak over Fife/Dundee but then intensifying as it heads south. The EURO4 has this hitting much later, though with things clearly on the right side of marginal:

 

 

 

The difference between the two is that the EURO4 holds the secondary low further north for longer, whereas the GFS/NMM has it moving south/east around mid afternoon:

 

 

 

The models have tended to shift things a bit further west and make the secondary low a bit more pronounced, which is definitely a positive if you're looking for decent snowfall totals, but on the other hand you don't want to end up with too big a feature too close and end up under an upper warm sector e.g. East Aberdeenshire here:

 

 

With the uncertainty between the models I wouldn't bank on significant accumulations from this other than above 200m in the Highlands and maybe the Borders but it's certainly possible that lowland eastern/central parts away from the coast will get their first (or I guess for one or two luck folk their second) sighting of snow on the ground this winter, and potentially a wider area seeing falling snow under the potentially slushier GFS scenario.

 

Also, I realise the promised winter forecast hasn't been published yet, but it is at least mostly written now so I should have time in the next day or two to get it done. I'm still somewhat in two minds about how this winter's going to turn out but if it's not released soon there's little point to doing it at all.

[Hawesy]

Coastal mongoose snow interference...Hawesy suffers big-time from that...I like it HC that's a keeper terminology...going to be spitting feathers....I mean enjoying reading others snow reports on here at weekend...

 

I've got a pack of mongooses in my back garden to ward off the snow!

 

I'm actually inside the warning area and of course a meagre 1 cm of snow would be my biggest fall since Dec 2010. However experience has taught me not to get too excited...if something can go wrong it will when it comes to snow around here. I suspect the precip will dry up before it's cold enough to snow in Crail. GFS has been remarkably consistent all week about the depth of cold though, still showing sub 520 dam and -9c 850s for NE Fife on Saturday.

 

Ravelin is looking a great bet to see some of the white stuff along with the Moray Firth contingent (fingers crossed, HC).

 

Anyway, an interesting 48 hours coming up.

[lorenzo]

Lots of mongooses in this thread !

Decent set of warnings and charts lots of interest in next 48 hrs.

Liked the reply Catch re Polar Vortex, a very long story indeed !

[November13]

_{Traffic Scotland}

 

_{A band of rain, sleet and snow will move south across northern and eastern Scotland later on Friday, then into the Borders and northeast England on Friday night. The snow will mainly affect high ground at first but will fall to lower levels on Friday night. 1-4 cm is likely at some lower levels but with 5-10 cm above 150 m, with drifting in the strong to gale force north or northwesterly winds. Indeed severe gales with gusts to 60 mph could bring a short period of blizzard conditions to the highest routes later Friday evening and overnight. The more persistent snow and strong winds will have cleared by Saturday morning but ice will be an additional hazard by then, particularly for higher level routes. Please be aware of the likelihood of some difficult driving conditions and some travel disruption.}

_{Affected Areas}

• _Angus
• _Dundee
• _Fife
• _{Perth and Kinross}

_{Possible effects of snow}

• _{Increased stopping distance}
• _{Reduced visibility}
• _{Increased journey time}
• _{Lane markings obscured}
• _{Obstructions on the road (abandoned vehicles)}
• _{Risk of ice patches}
• _{Snow gate closures}

_{Valid: 20 Nov 2015 - 16:00 to 21 Nov 2015 - 10:00.
Last updated: 19 Nov 2015 - 10:45}

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Should be collecting my car from the garage with winter tyres on just as this comes into force.

 

Nice timing.

 

[A Winter's Tale]

Nice late autumn conditions with place blue afternoon skies and a scattering of clouds. The met office warnings for snow in parts if the country is great to see this early in the season and I think the northern highlands and parts of the north east and borders could see decent spells of snowfall. There appears to be a front moving south across the country late on Friday which could deliver for some central areas but I suspect the Glasgow area will end up west of a front which would probably be remnants of a decaying feature.

My preliminary thoughts on winter:

December:

Slight above temperatures; above average rainfall; very unsettled, predominately westerly winds; stormy, potentially severe; PV southern Greenland; cool beginning but becoming increasingly milder; chance of brief interludes of cold NWly/Nly or crisp settled spells.

January:

SSW early January; continuation of unsettled wet and windy conditions, close to average temperatures; becoming more settled but mild mid month; turning much colder and blocked latter half of month, breaking down before February; below average temperatures overall, slightly below average precipitation

February:

Most difficult month to forecast - messy, damp and dull beginning, becoming unsettled and potentially stormy; quieting down and return of blocking before mid month, breaking down later; quiet, mild and damp end; slightly below average temperatures, average rainfall.

In summary, December is shaping up to be quite an unsettled month, possibly disturbed with a familiar strong El Niño NH set up. Implications in the nature of temperature and weather patterns unclear but I would say a chilly beginning with plenty of wind and rain, becoming milder around days 10-20, possibly beyond possibility of short colder interludes in the latter part of the month.

Early days but there seems to be strong indications that the way this autumn has panned out so far could have interesting implications later in the winter and a SSW is more than a possibility. If an SSW does occur, the timing is up for debate but I think sometime in the first week of January. Possibly a very zonal beginning to January, temperatures difficult to predict with confidence so I'd sit in the fence and say around average. Most Becoming milder with possibly murky conditions as high pressure moves closer to the UK about 10 days. I'm confident a period of sustained blocking will occur in the second half of January with heights centred to the north/north East. I think a messy breakdown would occur by the end of the month with plenty of murky conditions as the Atlantic makes a return.

February is always the difficult month to forecast as it is the furtherest away but the conditions or weather patterns are more difficult to describe. I think an initially quiet, transitional spell of weather to begin with then becoming unsettled with more active Atlantic dominated weather for a time. Before mid month a return of HLB, this time to the NW and breaking down at the end of the month and replaced by a quiet, mild transition to Spring.

[Hairy Celt]

Another winter driving hazard...

 

this isn't a hazard...

Edited November 19, 2015 by Hairy Celt

[edo]

Ha ha impressive work from the big lad to produce in that cauld....should be a few on here late tomorrow night whilst watching the lampies .... First of the season before the season starts...can't grumble at that

Thank you LS for the comprehensive update...I see fergie on the model thread saying Ukmo feel the euro 4 is overplaying the snow potential by 40%

Edited November 20, 2015 by edo

[Benvironment]

<stirs from slumber>

 

<stretches>

 

<rubs eyes>

 

<yawns>

 

Is it time to wake up? 

[Northernlights]

Busy day cows and calves in  for winter with calves cut/dehorned and pneumonia vaccinated.  Snow can come now Ploughing 80% complete,turnip store 80% full  when turnip harvester broke down  yesterday so hopefully will finish lifting neeps and ploughing next week .   If its dry and frosty at the weekend  will roll out electric fence wires in the turnip field. Currently damp and 5c

[Cloud 10]

Why are cold spells short and mild spells long. Couldn't it be the other way about it's so unfair!

 

It's a bit like the fruit pastiles. You always get hunners of yellow and orange ones that nobody wants and a few token red and black ones!

 

 

Not necessarily.

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

The NMM comes up with a cracker on the pub run:

 

Maybe a bit marginal in places but temperatures inland look pretty decent at 1-2C and no coastal mixing (although winds will be pretty damn strong at 30-40mph with gusts over 60mph from 9pm-3am). We might just be in business here...     

[edo]

Yikes that is a lager induced run...let's see if it's still like that tomorrow when the headache kicks in

[mistyqueen]

Morning Snow Lovers! Cloudy and cool here today, currently 4.4c, pressure 1000. I sense a little excitement stirring on this forum, I do hope peeps aren't going to be too disappointed if/when the snow does/doesn't arrive. I'm refusing to get excited because some forecasts say rain and some say snow, which means either sleet or hail, but probably NAE snaw! Enjoy it when it comes folks!

[Ravelin]

At the moment, on current forecasts I'm expecting a mixture of cold rain, some sleet and maybe a little snow (but unlikely to actually lie). Looks like from a brief look at the models this morning that the winds will be more NW'rly rather than N'rly, which isn't as good for Aberdeenshire. Upper air temps also seem to be a bit warmer in the important period when the main precipitation is around. Still going to feel bitterly cold tomorrow, but not as snowy as perhaps hoped for. Then again, it's mid Nov so it was always going to be marginal.

One glimmer of hope, at 8am it was forecast to be 4C here, but in reality it was -0.4C, with a slight frost. Otherwise it's calm winds with some patchy light cloud.

[Hairy Celt]

I think us coastal mongoose types are in for a bit of a damp squib as usual - not cold enough when there's any ppn around, then a brief, sharp frost.  So pretty dodgy driving conditions tomorrow but not much white stuff.  That's November for you.

Edited November 20, 2015 by Hairy Celt

[Northern Strath]

Have started on a cold note again after a bitter week. Frosty with not a drop of wind. Currently -1c.

Forecast looking decent for quite a few of us for snow. Let's face it, better this than another bizarrely monikered (as HC eluded) bag of wind, no "Storm Cuthbert" "Storm Sporty Spice" or "Storm Just for Men" to bore us to death. Nope, the snow ploughs are already oot and aboot in force, hopefully something good in the air

*fingers crossed for the Mongooses

Edited November 20, 2015 by Northern Strath