Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2015: The Melt Season

[knocker]

A snapshot. Anomaly of plus 12F at the Pole.

Chart weatherbell

 

[stewfox]

A snapshot. Anomaly of plus 12F at the Pole.

Chart weatherbell

 

The high arctic ie 80N is still below average and has been for many days. Its the ground temps that matter

 

Edited May 18, 2015 by stewfox

[knocker]

I'm not too sure I follow your comment vis ground temps in response to an ST chart. What do you mean by ground temps?

[Gray-Wolf]

Probably that the ground is 'ice' and so cold......... it will only matter to him when that ice has gone and we see similar excursions from the 'average' as we see over winter? As it is the pole has had thin ice drift over it over winter ( as Fram re-awoke from its slumber and took the 'saved ice' from our side of the basin) so we will wait again to see if the pole itself makes 'ice free' this summer.

 

Plenty of discussion ,across the web, about the poor start to the season ( ice wise) and the impacts of warm water inflow from the Pacific. some talk of 'nino forcing' too. It would appear the the year after nino shows some record impacts ( the last being 2010's volume crash) so I have to wonder at the 'near nino' conditions over the past year and whether that hints at a low ice year.

 

Then we have 'the blob and the Triple R. The triple R has currently migrated into Alaska/Beaufort and is driving those nuts temps Knocks links to. Will this keep occurring over the season? With the blob feeding warm water into Beaufort the last thing we need is strong solar eating down from above.

 

EDIT: It appears we have melt pond formation now ongoing in Beaufort.

Edited May 19, 2015 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

Quite GW

 

 

Particularly the melt in the Beaufort Sea is very early, as can be seen on Concentration Maps for May 19th. But these sea ice concentration maps and regional graphs are not even telling the whole story. This LANCE-MODIS satellite image is:

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/05/asi-2015-update-1-early-start-in-beaufort.html

[keithlucky]

Quite GW

 

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/05/asi-2015-update-1-early-start-in-beaufort.html

Arctic ice thickest it has been since 2007 according to Piomas

[BornFromTheVoid]

Arctic ice thickest it has been since 2007 according to Piomas

 

That's a terrible MS paint job!

Anywho, average thickness isn't the best measure of ice health, because when ice coverage is anomalously low, it's mainly the older thicker ice that remains, inflating the thickness values. If we had near normal coverage values, it would include extra thinner peripheral ice, which would increase the overall volume but lower the average thickness.

Edited May 19, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[Gray-Wolf]

This is the weirdest, twisted thing of it all as I'm looking forward to either seeing a lack of KL or see him squirm as this season unfolds. does he really hold thoughts of his own or does he dive into WUWT et al every time we bring concerning news over the basin? Again I'd ask his confirmation that the 'thicker , older ice is sound ice. After 'seeing' the floes in Beaufort, and their evolution over the past couple of days ( melt ponding aside) I have my own concerns....... but then nobody has 'told me' this I went and looked at the conditions on the ground.

 

I know it is early BFTV but I'm thinking we are in for another extraordinary season with a lot for us all to both witness and learn.

 

I personally think we have factors in this season that we have not had a chance to see in the past 07' pack. but the best will be the squishing of the 'recovery' myth.

 

But it does not end there does it? The other sites we frequent have discussed the 'nino effect' and , it appears, that next year is more likely to bear the brunt of that ( though this year we have the impacts of a 'near nino year' )and then into the year that is , so we are told, the earliest possible return of the 'perfect melt storm synoptics ........ and that after these two seasons

Edited May 19, 2015 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Things do look a little concerning at the moment, GW, with substantial melting and above freezing temps now beginning to spread across much the Arctic. As we know from 2012, if you get these conditions at the right time (late May/early June) the melt ponding can alter the energy balance and tip things toward a strong melt season, even with average conditions for the rest of the summer.

Many people here tend to point toward the August storm of 2012 as the reason for the record minimum that year (even though they tried to argue at the time that it was normal!), but forget that we were already lowest on record by most measures well before the storm arrived. 2012 temp anomalies were at there most positive in May and June, rather than July and August.

 

Now if we compare the May 2012 temp anomalies with 2013 and 2014, we can see quite a difference.

 

2012 ................. .............. ............... .................. 2013 .................... ...................... ................... 2014

  

 

It will be interesting to see how the temp anomalies end up this month. It has been quite cold at times in the central Arctic and warm in the Kara/Barents regions and Beaufort so far, but things look like being very mild for the rest of the month.

[stewfox]

  

It will be interesting to see how the temp anomalies end up this month. It has been quite cold at times in the central Arctic and warm in the Kara/Barents regions and Beaufort so far, but things look like being very mild for the rest of the month.

 

Looking at the last 57 years never seen such a run of below average temps the high artic at this time of year with 24hr sun , what do you think is the cause ?

Edited May 19, 2015 by stewfox

[4wd]

It's colder than normal I think.
But it has to be explained in terms of warming-we-know-must-be-happening.

[Geordiesnow]

I know it is early BFTV but I'm thinking we are in for another extraordinary season with a lot for us all to both witness and learn.

 

The ice looks in a very poor state and I really do think the odds of a record melt is gaining a lot of mormentum, even if we don't get a record low, even at this early stage and just looking at the potential forecoming weather patterns, it is very possible we may see a record low for a large chunk of the melt season. 

 

Things do look a little concerning at the moment, GW, with substantial melting and above freezing temps now beginning to spread across much the Arctic. As we know from 2012, if you get these conditions at the right time (late May/early June) the melt ponding can alter the energy balance and tip things toward a strong melt season, even with average conditions for the rest of the summer.

Many people here tend to point toward the August storm of 2012 as the reason for the record minimum that year (even though they tried to argue at the time that it was normal!), but forget that we were already lowest on record by most measures well before the storm arrived. 2012 temp anomalies were at there most positive in May and June, rather than July and August.

 

With the exception of 2011, I don't think there is any other years which has seen so much 'heat' entering the basin on this scale and for this long at this time of year, the models was hinting at a potential breakdown but now they are agreeing things could still 'warm' up even more. For folks who wants too see all the ice to melt away, this is a very good start, we got mild/warm air in most places, Beaufort, Barants are all projected to 'warm' up and I do fear we could be seeing some quite ugly extent figures, this May is chalk and cheese to the last 2 Mays which were mostly cold on the whole. Even if extent figures don't show it, melt ponding could be quite extensive indeed, especially on the Pacific side of the basin. 

 

I do feel the storm of 2012 did play a part in the final extent figure for 2012 in respect how low it got but it was heading to a near/record low anyways as the ice during that summer was also very poor. That year also saw very early ice retreat in Beaufort and Kara which could be the case this year so a lot of similarities all ready and one could argue the weather this May is even worse than it was then! 

[Gray-Wolf]

it is odd the stew keep on keeping on about the little hole at the top of the Arctic whilst everyone else is showing concern about the unprecedented heat around near all the rest of the basin?

 

Maybe when we reach day 155 ( or whenever that DMI plot says 80N goes above freezing ?) we can then see whether or not we have some good news from that piece of the basin or not? Whilst its still supposed to be cold there with no melt occurring maybe we should be looking at what wind and current are doing/have done to the ice over 80N? Just a thought? 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Things do look a little concerning at the moment, GW, with substantial melting and above freezing temps now beginning to spread across much the Arctic. As we know from 2012, if you get these conditions at the right time (late May/early June) the melt ponding can alter the energy balance and tip things toward a strong melt season, even with average conditions for the rest of the summer.

Many people here tend to point toward the August storm of 2012 as the reason for the record minimum that year (even though they tried to argue at the time that it was normal!), but forget that we were already lowest on record by most measures well before the storm arrived. 2012 temp anomalies were at there most positive in May and June, rather than July and August.

 

Now if we compare the May 2012 temp anomalies with 2013 and 2014, we can see quite a difference.

 

2012 ................. .............. ............... .................. 2013 .................... ...................... ................... 2014

  

 

It will be interesting to see how the temp anomalies end up this month. It has been quite cold at times in the central Arctic and warm in the Kara/Barents regions and Beaufort so far, but things look like being very mild for the rest of the month.

 

Interesting graphs BFTV.

 

Do we not have the similar graph for May 2015 (to date)?

 

The graphs posted above by Stew seem to indicate a big cold blob over the pole. Other  evidence posted by GW, etc says that it is warming up elsewhere. It would be interesting to see the total position at the moment.

 

Surely the Arctic (like all other places on earth) has always been characterised by regions being warmer than average and other areas in the Arctic  basin being colder than average (2012 looks to  have been an exceptionally warm May, 2013 a very cold May). I do not deny the Western Canadian/Alaska segment looks 'in trouble', but the rest still looks reasonable to me.  

 

Is not everything by the 'warmers' based upon a forecast for the next few days of very mild conditions spreading ? We will see...

 

MIA

 

Edit

 

Just read GW's post above.

 

Was it not just last year that the Arctic cirle remained below freezing almost right thru the summer months when everywhere else was 'roasting'?  So as per last year it may not make it above freezing? Surely it is too early to start making predictions?

 

Is it not possible that  your musings could end up (again) as another failed  prediction? I'm guessing that you get only about 40% right. Less than sticking a finger in the air. Still it is always a very good read!

Edited May 20, 2015 by Midlands Ice Age

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looking at the last 57 years never seen such a run of below average temps the high artic at this time of year with 24hr sun , what do you think is the cause ?

 

It happens to be the area of the Arctic with the large -ve SLP anomaly for the last week, so the remains of winter's cold is probably being held just over the pole. As for why it's quite so low compared to others, who knows, but be related to the fact that it's a modelled temperature that isn't really consistent with older decades.

 

Interesting graphs BFTV.

 

Do we not have the similar graph for May 2015 (to date)?

 

The graphs posted above by Stew seem to indicate a big cold blob over the pole. Other  evidence posted by GW, etc says that it is warming up elsewhere. It would be interesting to see the total position at the moment.

 

Surely the Arctic (like all other places on earth) has always been characterised by regions being warmer than average and other areas in the Arctic  basin being colder than average (2012 looks to  have been an exceptionally warm May, 2013 a very cold May). I do not deny the Western Canadian/Alaska segment looks 'in trouble', but the rest still looks reasonable to me.  

 

Is not everything by the 'warmers' based upon a forecast for the next few days of very mild conditions spreading ? We will see...

 

MIA

 

There is a similar graph to date, but I just described it rather than posting, because I thought it wouldn't be consistent to post up half a months data to compare with the other full months. It would also require describing what happened first half of the other Mays, etc.

 

Indeed MIA. Back in the day we could see some strong regional variations, usually balanced by variations elsewhere. Obviously though, when every month begins to show downward trends things clearly aren't being balanced out. 

 

The very mild conditions are already into Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS and Kara and Barents, while the north pole region remains cold. But the warmth looks likely to spread throughout the Arctic as we approach next week.

 

 

 

[Nouska]

Interesting graphs BFTV.

 

Do we not have the similar graph for May 2015 (to date)?

 

The graphs posted above by Stew seem to indicate a big cold blob over the pole. Other  evidence posted by GW, etc says that it is warming up elsewhere. It would be interesting to see the total position at the moment.

 

Surely the Arctic (like all other places on earth) has always been characterised by regions being warmer than average and other areas in the Arctic  basin being colder than average (2012 looks to  have been an exceptionally warm May, 2013 a very cold May). I do not deny the Western Canadian/Alaska segment looks 'in trouble', but the rest still looks reasonable to me.  

 

Is not everything by the 'warmers' based upon a forecast for the next few days of very mild conditions spreading ? We will see...

 

MIA

 

 

As BFTV says, too soon for reanalysis of the month but a quick glance can be had from the below charts. Temp anomalies in Kelvin and are for surface rather than the 925hPa in the monthly analysis.

 

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php#forecast

 

Month to date     month to date plus forecast seven days.      

[Midlands Ice Age]

As BFTV says, too soon for reanalysis of the month but a quick glance can be had from the below charts. Temp anomalies in Kelvin and are for surface rather than the 925hPa in the monthly analysis.

 

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php#forecast

 

Month to date     month to date plus forecast seven days.      

 

Thanks Nouska...

 

So nothing exceptional there then month to date (or even by month-end!). Except for the extreme warming in nw Canada.

 

MIA

[knocker]

Except the monthly mean won't show the transition from negative anomalies to positive that is forecast to occur and continue to the end of the month. Which BFTV has already mentioned.

Edited May 20, 2015 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

So M.I.A. if the first half of the month was -20c and the second half was +20c what would the monthly average show?

 

And what would the end of the month ice losses be?

 

Would the ice loss behaviour match up to what  the 'average temp' was showing?

 

See the problem here?

[Midlands Ice Age]

So M.I.A. if the first half of the month was -20c and the second half was +20c what would the monthly average show?

 

And what would the end of the month ice losses be?

 

Would the ice loss behaviour match up to what  the 'average temp' was showing?

 

See the problem here?

 

GW  I see the problem in your arguement as being twofold -

 

1) The 'if in your assumption

2) I have not seen anywhere that talks about widespread temps of +20C!    Yep your -20C below was correct earlier in the month.

 

Apart from that, I dont deal in theoretical arguements, only actual data.

 

I have not used the current data or that shown by BFTV to proove anything apart from the fact that currently there is next to nothing to get excited about!

 

MIA

[BornFromTheVoid]

Both the NSIDC and IJIS daily extent still lowest on record, while the NSIDC 5 day trailing average is now 2nd lowest. The warm air should over much of the Arctic should encourage close to or above average melt rates for the next few days, so we might see the 5 day average move to lowest and the daily averages move further into record territory.

 

Still, the modelled 80N temps look cold so it's all perfctly normal, perfectly normal, perfectly normal...

[Midlands Ice Age]

Both the NSIDC and IJIS daily extent still lowest on record, while the NSIDC 5 day trailing average is now 2nd lowest. The warm air should over much of the Arctic should encourage close to or above average melt rates for the next few days, so we might see the 5 day average move to lowest and the daily averages move further into record territory.

 

Still, the modelled 80N temps look cold so it's all perfctly normal, perfectly normal, perfectly normal...

 

BFTV..

Already after  the last 2 days, it seems that extent is UP,UP, up  by about 140000sq kilometers.  Not a good start for the forecasts for the next week.

 

MIA

[knocker]

BFTV..

Already after  the last 2 days, it seems that extent is UP,UP, up  by about 140000sq kilometers.  Not a good start for the forecasts for the next week.

 

MIA

 

Not that I can be arsed to argue this but what is your ref. for that?

 

NSIDC

 

17th 12590m Km²

19th 12473m Km² 

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Edited May 20, 2015 by knocker

[Midlands Ice Age]

Not that I can be arsed to argue this but what is your ref. for that?

 

NSIDC

 

17th 12590m Km²

19th 12473m Km² 

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

 

Knocker...

Please see the detailed MAISIE figures produced by KeithL (post number 159, I think ) on the Arctic Ice data and facts thread. 

I suppose that actual satellite data isn't good enough for you.!!

 

MIA

Edited May 20, 2015 by Midlands Ice Age

[inghams85]

Just to put it into perspective how absurd yourself KL and 4's viewpoint is. This thread was brought up in the Sheffield seminar of climatologists today and you guys were the laughing stock for half an hour. In fact the quote was that you would still call an apple a banana when to everyone else they could see it was an apple. Stop trying to disprove what is happening in the Arctic. Its already been scientifically proven by scientists with 10,000 times the brain cells of yourselves

Knocker...

Please see the detailed MAISIE figures produced by KeithL (post number 159, I think ) on the Arctic Ice data and facts thread. 

I suppose that actual satellite data isn't good enough for you.!!

 

MIA