Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2015: The Melt Season

[BornFromTheVoid]

Daily NSIDC extent has dipped below 12 million km2 for the earliest date on record (May 25th), beating the previous record of May 30th in 2006.

It's also the lowest for the date by 288k, with the 5 day average now lowest by 148k. 

[Gray-Wolf]

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

For the folk hung up on the 80N temps ( and not the heatwaves around the basin) look at what the 'average temps did in both 07' and 2012 prior to the date they are progged to go positive.

 

What difference did the below average temps in early season mean to the rest of the season?

 

And what do folk feel is most likely to show wider impacts for humanity?

 

Low ice across the basin over summer or high sea ice in Antarctica over its winter?

[4wd]

Neither?

All the supposed impacts are based on speculation - and those obsessed with speculating have an agenda which only permits negative changes - which won't be the case.

[Devonian]

Neither?

All the supposed impacts are based on speculation - and those obsessed with speculating have an agenda which only permits negative changes - which won't be the case.

So, if we want an agenda free, objective view we should read your posts?

Actually sometimes I wish I was you because I would not see a single human caused problem, of more concern than of ridiculing, with the world's atmosphere or cryosphere, or biosphere. Happy days!

Edited May 27, 2015 by Devonian

[Methuselah]

Neither?

All the supposed impacts are based on speculation - and those obsessed with speculating have an agenda which only permits negative changes - which won't be the case.

And what of your own speculation: that nothing will happen? why is that any more readworthy?

[4wd]

Where does it say nothing will happen.
The 'question ' was about impacts on humanity from minor changes in ice at the poles - there probably won't be any worth noting.
At least not compared to all the other problems that have nothing whatsoever to do with angels on pins - aka invented climate change concerns

[Gray-Wolf]

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/index.html

 

North Pole web cam.

[stewfox]

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

For the folk hung up on the 80N temps ( and not the heatwaves around the basin) look at what the 'average temps did in both 07' and 2012 prior to the date they are progged to go positive.

 

What difference did the below average temps in early season mean to the rest of the season?

 

 

 

I don't think it has any impact on final extent as most of the ice wont melt within that region

 

Would be interesting if we do pick up some record lows with some form of correlation to lower temps in late spring although i cant think of anything from melt ponds to variation in Albino that would explain that.

[stewfox]

Where does it say nothing will happen.

The 'question ' was about impacts on humanity from minor changes in ice at the poles - there probably won't be any worth noting.

At least not compared to all the other problems that have nothing whatsoever to do with angels on pins - aka invented climate change concerns

 

I stop people in the street everyday and say do you know the latest IJIS figure and they look at me as if i'm crazy ??

 

I think less ice more cruise ships.

 

I find it fascinating because its within a measurable time frames the empirical data is fairly robust cf telling us what global temps we in 1880 

[BornFromTheVoid]

ADS (old IJIS/JAXA) extent now lowest by just under quarter of a million km2.

 

Latest ECM maintains the warmth over much of the Pacific side of the Arctic for the next 5 days, before moving more toward the Siberian side, and cooling relative to average over the North American side. However, things warm up to average over the Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay regions, which would help keep and the overall melt rate close to average at least.

Edited May 29, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[knocker]

Nick Stokes has been looking at Arctic temps. He loves his gadgets.

 

Daily Arctic Temperatures

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/daily-arctic-temperatures.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

After dropping 68k, ADS extent is now lowest on record by over 291k, and the earliest to dip below 11 million km2 by 5 days.

[Gray-Wolf]

Goddard appears to be lining his faithful up for a bit of a fall with his last offering of a 'recovered/static Arctic Basin' . Sadly the type of person relying on his take on the world will just grab his info and use it as gospel even as we break records as the year moves further into melt season.

 

I would say that by June's end he will have moved away from all things Arctic leaving his faithful to defend his indefensible claims? Looks like a fun summer ahead!

[4wd]

Well plenty of people make wrong predictions about the Arctic - mostly involving imminent ice-free-ness.
The increased volume and thickness will probably result in a sudden slow down shortly, just like most years once the easy bits that always melt have gone.

[knocker]

Still looking at plus temp anomalies.

Charts weatherbell

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

ADS extent now lowest on record by over 300k.

 

Latest ECM shows no big cool down, but the (relative) warmth moving from Beaufort across to the East Siberian Sea and Laptev. Baffin and Hudson Bay also look like warming up during the next week. However, some years saw their melt rate really take off during early June, so while it's likely that we'll still be lowest on record this time next week, the gap will probably be much smaller.

The NSIDC extent often shows a big drop on the first of June, most likely as the algorithm for detecting melt ponding and the regional land masks are altered. The average drop from May 31st to June 1st over the whole record is about 136k, so keep that in mind.

[Gray-Wolf]

The increased volume and thickness will probably result in a sudden slow down shortly, just like most years once the easy bits that always melt have gone.

 

If 'the easy bits' are all the areas with lower ice volumes going into June then that is everything bar the central arctic. Rapid loss of all the peripheral areas will alter the prospects of good survival of that central basin ice by allowing warm ( relative) water to completely surround the core ice and allow bottom melt from all sides ( no matter what wind/current are doing to the unleashed central ice mass). In 2012 we saw big LP systems do a number on the central pack over on the pacific side. With the removal of all theat 'easy ice' what are the odds of large swells developing across the basin ( unheard of ten years ago!) to further disrupt/tumble the central basin ice.

 

I think Four tends to forget the scale of changes already undergone across the basin?

Edited May 31, 2015 by Gray-Wolf

[Geordiesnow]

Some interest coming up potentially with quite a large(but not too overly deep) low perhaps heading into Barants sea which seems to have the perfect wind direction for ice too get flushed out the fram stright followed by trends of the first significant warm up in Laptev. Still time for change but 2 potential weather set ups which on paper would not be good news for the sea ice. The warm up in Laptev coupled with winds coming off the Russian landmass will no doubt help to form a pollyna which after previous years is a bit slower this year. Still a little way off but recent trends do seem to suggest the western half of the Arctic will be "colder" than in recent times whilst the Eastern half will see its first significant blast of warm air.

 

Better news is that Beaufort has cooled down but it is remarkable just how similar the set ups have been to 2011, the sea ice shape is also looking similar at the moment and it does look more than likely as with 2011/12 the sea ice in the Kara Sea will of melted out sometime in the early part of June. 

 

Be also interesting too see how long it will take for the ice to melt in Hudson Bay, despite the large amount of open water, thicker ice has been concentrated so may be more resistant to any warmth? 

[knocker]

I was looking at the low earlier.

Chart weatherbell

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Yup ! Looks like the low will batter the ice around the NW Tip of Greenland before its impacts move west along the Greenland coast and off into the Canadian Archipelago coast so maybe coastal breakup and movement there also? The temps over on the Eurasian coast seem to promise melt over there too?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Interesting to note, that if the ADS extent flatlines from today, it would take 6 days for another year to catch up. If we continued to lose ice at half the rate of the last week, it would take 10 days for another year to catch up.

[Geordiesnow]

Yup ! Looks like the low will batter the ice around the NW Tip of Greenland before its impacts move west along the Greenland coast and off into the Canadian Archipelago coast so maybe coastal breakup and movement there also? The temps over on the Eurasian coast seem to promise melt over there too?

 

There is perhaps little doubt the ice alongside Franz Joseph Island(think thats what it called) is now very vulnable to melting with mainly from the unusually warm conditions and the fact the ice has now fragmented away from the pack. 

 

In terms of the low's impact, the models are still a little uncertain on how strong it will be(GFS does have quite a deep low, similar to 2012 but the GFS tends to over power low pressure systems) although all the models agree the western half of the low will have strongest of the winds which is not good news for the ice heading out into the fram stright. I think the most noticetable thing about this low is the size of it, you like to hope that with colder air attached to this low, the impacts on the ice won't be as severe than say if a low has quite a lot of warm air wrapped around it. 

 

That said, warm air does eventually head into Laptev and with winds coming from the landmass, then ice pushing away from the Russian coastline would be quite likely. 

 

It will also be interesting how the cold start to June for Beaufort will impact the ice here, wind direction has also been favorable to perhaps close that open water gap somewhat just like in 2011. 

[oldsnowywizard]

Are we making the same mistake year on year and looking at 850 temps or are we looking at 2m temps? Extreme warmth and other comments are misleading... barrow is 0 degrees right now.. last week during the "extreme warmth" it went to a barmy 3 degrees.. it is june..weather patterns always from april to sep will allow warmer air into the arctic..there is not a force field in place stopping it. We know from the past that there are many other factors which will lead to ice melt.. radiation, ssts , etc etc. We do not know nearly enough to make anything but speculation. Gw for eg has since i have been a member talked about bad ice.. serious cracks etc ..but still the ice has not melted out as perhaps he and many others have thought... does that mean it cant happen..NO no one cant predict the future.. even i have been surprised by the ice as is today... after 07 and 11 i thought we were doomed.. i even bought a ..i heart gw t shirt.. but ...here we are..thicker ice than we have been used to over this last 5 years or so... lets see how it pans out..

[Gray-Wolf]

Ho OSW ! 

 

Concerns over ice condition is not for an 'average' or good ice year ( cool/cloudy/low export) but what we might see when another appalling 07' esque summer rolls around again.

 

The battering we saw the ice took in 07' occurred whilst we still carried paleocryistic ice across the basin and did not have a highly fragmented pack. My ( and others?) concerns are about the 'conditioning' of the pack ahead of the next 'perfect melt storm' summer ( remember 2012 was no 'perfect melt storm' but still easily beat the 07' record?). 

 

We may be only two years away from the earliest repeat of the 07' perfect melt storm so how do you think the 'new basin make up' will cope under such forcings?

[4wd]

Ho OSW ! 

 

Concerns over ice condition is not for an 'average' or good ice year ( cool/cloudy/low export) but what we might see when another appalling 07' esque summer rolls around again.

 

The battering we saw the ice took in 07' occurred whilst we still carried paleocryistic ice across the basin and did not have a highly fragmented pack. My ( and others?) concerns are about the 'conditioning' of the pack ahead of the next 'perfect melt storm' summer ( remember 2012 was no 'perfect melt storm' but still easily beat the 07' record?). 

 

We may be only two years away from the earliest repeat of the 07' perfect melt storm so how do you think the 'new basin make up' will cope under such forcings?

As uual most of your posts amount to misleading rhetoric, we don't have much idea of what is or isn't normal until quite recently as satellite photos became much higher res and readily available. Giving the impression the Arctic Basin used to be crammed full of ice teens of feet thick but now everything is somehow wrecked is little more than propaganda but you seem to gleefully parrot similar catchphrases every year.