Summer 2015

[MP-R]

Funnily enough easterly spells such as that one at the end of May 2012 have actually brought some of my more memorable summer moments in recent years. Temperature wise we only just scraped 20c but it was the pure blue skies that really stood out. Late May 2009 also stands out. But that also collapsed into a much cooler unseasonal start to June.

 

Yes those azure blue skies when there's a cleaner source of air from the east are magic. 29th May - 04th June 2009 was a fantastic spell of weather, fortunately it wasn't long before the sun and warmth came back here but I do remember the 06th-08th of that month being particularly cool and quite wet. 

 

It's interesting how at that time of year, there have been many warm/hot spells that quickly switch to the exact opposite e.g. May 01st-03rd 2007, May 14th-15th 2008, June 04th-06th 2009, June 04th-05th 2011 etc. The breakdowns all came from cold pool from the northeast too. The 2012 instance saw a breakdown from the southwest.

 

I'm personally not a fan of lengthy warm and settled spells too early but some summer bursts between now and June would be nice.

[cheese]

23 - 29 May 2012 was absolutely brilliant.. that was 7 days of nothing but clear blue skies (literally not a cloud in the sky), temperatures in the low to mid 20s, low humidity, no rain, low dew points, a gentle breeze and no nasty haze or pollution. Heaven. Temperature-wise nothing special, but it's unusual to get an entire WEEK of nothing but sunshine, not even fair-weather cumulus drifting about.

 

Pretty much my ideal summer weather. Just a few thunderstorms thrown in to keep things interesting.

Edited April 6, 2015 by cheese

[sundog]

Cant help but think the current very nice spell of of warm weather we are having and perhaps next week aswell,will april be our summer? As what happened in some other yrs. weather like this at this time of yr makes me very cautious.

Edited April 7, 2015 by sundog

[Summer Sun]

Express are at it again

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/568294/Summer-storm-weather-warning-super-typhoon-Maysak-violent-ripple-effect

 

[Atmogenic]

Express are at it again

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/568294/Summer-storm-weather-warning-super-typhoon-Maysak-violent-ripple-effect

 

That was few days ago, right now Reo is saying we are having SIZZLING warmth and is going to continue for weeks.

[jonboy]

Express are at it again

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/568294/Summer-storm-weather-warning-super-typhoon-Maysak-violent-ripple-effect

 

Wonderful bit in there about 'inrense solar activity' and flare activity being the drivers shame we have neither and certainly solar activity at best was low during solar max and is now dropping like a stone

[Azazel]

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2015/apr/09/daily-express-weather-warning-beware-a-shower-of-extreme-inaccuracy

 

About time!

[Milhouse]

Wouldnt read much into the scaremongering going on by Matt Hugo about the link between good springs and washout summers. 2012 was not the last good spring. Last year was! It was the 3rd warmest Spring on record and we got a pretty acceptable summer.

[Summer Sun]

Wouldnt read much into the scaremongering going on by Matt Hugo about the link between good springs and washout summers. 2012 was not the last good spring. Last year was! It was the 3rd warmest Spring on record and we got a pretty acceptable summer.

 

Spring 2003 was a decent spring I seem to remember and we all know what summer brought peaking with the 38.5°c (101.3 F) on August 10th

[Costa Del Fal]

Matt Hugo is a coldie so is clearly going to favour the cool option where possible.

[weatherguru14]

We have seen in summers where they have been poor the jetstream as remained anchored   to south of the UK and then  we have been the cool N to NW air flow..

at least our weather seems to be more of a mobile south westerly right now..even after  2 days  this weekend  next week we are back into  a warming  trend.

the warmer air is coming from the south.. if we don't  get stuck in a  blocked northern patern... like the summers prior to the last 2.. we will have   spells of fine  weather.

You always get warm weather in the uk  in the summer. Depends on how much we get. to see how good the summer was.

So far april as been a bonus.

[AderynCoch]

Spring 2014 was a bland, homogenous season in a bland, homogenous year. How it ended up so warm with so little actual warm weather to enjoy I'll never know.

[Weather-history]

Wouldnt read much into the scaremongering going on by Matt Hugo about the link between good springs and washout summers. 2012 was not the last good spring. Last year was! It was the 3rd warmest Spring on record and we got a pretty acceptable summer.

Was Spring 2012 even that good? March was but April was a cool, record breaking washout.

[Milhouse]

Was Spring 2012 even that good? March was but April was a cool, record breaking washout.

 

The stand out spell was that one during March where 23c was recorded in Scotland i think. But you are right, from the start of April right until the last 3rd of May it was pretty dismal.

[damianslaw]

I'm sure if someone put up the stats, there will be a number of examples of cold springs followed by cool summers, and cold springs followed by warm summers, warm springs by cold summers, warm springs followed by warm summers.

 

Spring 2014 indeed was one of the mildest, and it preceded a warm summer.

 

Spring 2013 conversely was cold and a warm summer followed.

 

Spring 2012 produced a very mild March, but a cool April and May, alas the summer was a cool one.

 

Some singularities are noteworthy though, the 3 mildest Aprils on record 1987 (I think, if not it is up there..), 2007 and 2011 preceded either cool or average summers.

 

From own feelings, I always get a bit nervy when we see a sustained warm pattern at some stage in Spring as recent years (too early I always say..), namely because of what happened in the summers of 2007, 2011 and 2012.

[March Blizzard]

Spring 2014 was a bland, homogenous season in a bland, homogenous year. How it ended up so warm with so little actual warm weather to enjoy I'll never know.

That's true, despite it only being last year I remember hardly anything about it; I've got far better recollection of the 3 Springs preceding it.

2014 really was a shocker, very forgettable bar the Jan/Feb storms.

[Woollymummy]

Speaking as an October birthday girl, I think last year was truly rare and warm: my special beach-cafe meal of fresh mussels after a pleasant swim in the sea in Carlyon Bay, that doesn't normally happen! Plus camping in Hurricane Bertha, the night before she struck was intensely hot, sultry, tropical. Also, Midsummer party for my daughter: totally amazing hot sunny camping in the garden. I am probably selectively remembering the times I was actually most fearful it would be cold and wet, and it surely wasn't that.

[March Blizzard]

Speaking as an October birthday girl, I think last year was truly rare and warm: my special beach-cafe meal of fresh mussels after a pleasant swim in the sea in Carlyon Bay, that doesn't normally happen! Plus camping in Hurricane Bertha, the night before she struck was intensely hot, sultry, tropical. Also, Midsummer party for my daughter: totally amazing hot sunny camping in the garden. I am probably selectively remembering the times I was actually most fearful it would be cold and wet, and it surely wasn't that.

To be fair the sea is pretty warm in September/October. I was born in early March, so I'd be brave to have a swim in the sea on my birthday - I'd probably end up with hypothermia!

[AderynCoch]

That's true, despite it only being last year I remember hardly anything about it; I've got far better recollection of the 3 Springs preceding it.

2014 really was a shocker, very forgettable bar the Jan/Feb storms.

Come to think of it we did get a nice week in the middle of May with a big thunderstorm to boot. Apart from that though it was one big snoozefest, a kind of reverse autumn with a gradual rise towards summer rather than a classic spring with all the variation it entails.

 

For much of last year we suffered a curse of consistently but not exceptionally warm temperatures, and even then it was the nights which were responsible for most of the anomalous warmth - the worst possible pattern for me. It was a catastrophically bad year for cold, with the only real below-average spell arriving at the wrong time of year (August).

[cheese]

Come to think of it we did get a nice week in the middle of May with a big thunderstorm to boot. Apart from that though it was one big snoozefest, a kind of reverse autumn with a gradual rise towards summer rather than a classic spring with all the variation it entails.

 

For much of last year we suffered a curse of consistently but not exceptionally warm temperatures, and even then it was the nights which were responsible for most of the anomalous warmth - the worst possible pattern for me. It was a catastrophically bad year for cold, with the only real below-average spell arriving at the wrong time of year (August).

You must have a short memory. July 2014 was the joint 8th warmest on record since 1910.

 

Here's the monthly summary for Linton on Ouse: http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03266&ndays=31&ano=2014&mes=07&day=31&hora=23&ord=REV&Send=Send

 

A dry, sunny and warm month - what more could anyone want? There were only two days with a high below 20C. July 2006 had 1. Obviously it will vary depending on where you live, but the consensus is that summer 2014 was a good one overall, only spoiled by the rubbish August. We even had some thunderstorms. It's not hard at all to see how it was the warmest year on record - because there was a near total lack of cold weather. If you want to be truly shocked, look at 2011 - that was the warmest year on record, despite the truly horrendous summer.

 

June 2014 was pretty good too - we had an average high of 20C here vs the 81-10 average of 18.8C.

 

And yes, spring 2014 was warmer than average. April here was around 2C above average. Very dry. Plenty of sun. May was alright as well. Not a clue what your problem is.

Edited April 13, 2015 by cheese

[Interitus]

For much of last year we suffered a curse of consistently but not exceptionally warm temperatures, and even then it was the nights which were responsible for most of the anomalous warmth

 

For CET values this is incorrect - the minimum anomaly was 1.24°C - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_min2014.html

 

But the maximum anomaly was 1.64° and hence the greater contributor to overall warmth - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max2014.html

 

 

 If you want to be truly shocked, look at 2011 - that was the warmest year on record, despite the truly horrendous summer.

 

Again going by CET 2006 was the warmest year on record prior to last year, 2011 was second.

[Captain Shortwave]

Come to think of it we did get a nice week in the middle of May with a big thunderstorm to boot. Apart from that though it was one big snoozefest, a kind of reverse autumn with a gradual rise towards summer rather than a classic spring with all the variation it entails.

 

For much of last year we suffered a curse of consistently but not exceptionally warm temperatures, and even then it was the nights which were responsible for most of the anomalous warmth - the worst possible pattern for me. It was a catastrophically bad year for cold, with the only real below-average spell arriving at the wrong time of year (August).

June was decent, July was very nice. August was the poor summer month.

The spring was just consistently milder than average by night and day, we just lacked any stand out warm spell or indeed cold spell.

Autumn was again consistently mild, September was reasonable, October was near normal until the last week which was exceptional (5 or the 7 days in the final week saw a maximum of 20C or more here, with Halloween recording 23C). November again was mild due to persistent winds between the south west and south east (the south easterlies fooling a lot of people who thought they would be cold). December was an average month and frankly January and February were horrendous rain-fest with the occasional wind storm thrown in, actually it was these months where the nights contributed most to the mild feel as double figure maxima were quite rare during that winter.

 

Anyway back on topic, the following months have seen a trend in my view, I think summer will be a tough call as whilst there might be a southerly tracking jet, the exact set up could still result in a cool and wet summer, but could very well end up very warm and sunny. I think high pressure to the north east will be pretty commonplace, just how close this is to the UK will determine our outcome.

May has been consistently predicted to be a rather vile month with below normal temperatures and above average rainfall, this possibly being set up in the final week of April.

Generic CFS charts

May

June

July

 

JMA suggesting a trough over the UK in May and over Southern Europe in June (with high pressure to the north east potentially).

Edited April 13, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

May has been consistently predicted to be a rather vile month with below normal temperatures and above average rainfall, this possibly being set up in the final week of April.

 

Generic CFS charts

 

May

June

July

 

JMA suggesting a trough over the UK in May and over Southern Europe in June (with high pressure to the north east potentially).

 

I'm always skeptical with those charts from CFS the winter before last some members were posting about how consistent they were for a cold winter and northern blocking it turned out to be the wettest on record

 

This is what the met have for early May

 

Conditions during this period may be on the changeable side at first, although there is a lot of uncertainty about the likely weather types later this month and into early May. Some spells of fine and dry weather are likely, perhaps with the best of these over southern and eastern parts.

 

It could be the south is closer to HP over Europe whilst the north would be more prone to rain

Edited April 13, 2015 by Summer Sun

[AderynCoch]

You must have a short memory. July 2014 was the joint 8th warmest on record since 1910.

 

Here's the monthly summary for Linton on Ouse: http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03266&ndays=31&ano=2014&mes=07&day=31&hora=23&ord=REV&Send=Send

 

A dry, sunny and warm month - what more could anyone want? There were only two days with a high below 20C. July 2006 had 1. Obviously it will vary depending on where you live, but the consensus is that summer 2014 was a good one overall, only spoiled by the rubbish August. We even had some thunderstorms. It's not hard at all to see how it was the warmest year on record - because there was a near total lack of cold weather. If you want to be truly shocked, look at 2011 - that was the warmest year on record, despite the truly horrendous summer.

 

June 2014 was pretty good too - we had an average high of 20C here vs the 81-10 average of 18.8C.

 

And yes, spring 2014 was warmer than average. April here was around 2C above average. Very dry. Plenty of sun. May was alright as well. Not a clue what your problem is.

Yes July was pretty good overall. June was okay. But that's the least you should expect for the warmest year on record. 2013 was easily a better summer for me.

 

Spring 2014 was bland and nobody is convincing me otherwise. You said it yourself - a near total lack of cold weather rather than an abundance of hot weather. And yes 2011 was also a poor year.

[weatherguru14]

2013 was a better summer for me.. the western side of the uk  2013 was the better of  the summers. 2014 was better for the eastern part of the UK I believe,could be wrong.. June  2013 was nice.. It stated off wet last year and was often cloudy.