Summer 2015

[damianslaw]

This month has been our summer, hope everyone enjoyed it lol.

 

 

Mmm could be a bit of truth in what you say - not in terms of temperatures, but apart from the odd little blip the last 3 weeks have been very dry sunny and appreciably above the average with heights sitting over/close to the UK. Its always a tall order to see such a lengthy spell at any time of year in the UK, indeed a nationwide such spell. Many summers have delivered a week or so tops of such weather, 2 weeks and we are doing very well, 3 weeks a real bonus...

 

The chance of sustained settled weather decreases as we move further into summer, indeed Feb - May is the period of the year statistically most likely to produce a sustained dry spell with high pressure dominating. There have been a number of summers which have failed to deliver even 5 days of dry settled weather on the trot..

Edited April 21, 2015 by damianslaw

[Milhouse]

Luckily there isnt a direct correlation between the persistence of high pressure and the quality of the summer then, although high pressure overhead does lead to a more nationwide good spell of weather. Several Summer months have been fairly decent for a good portion of the UK without having much in the way of high pressure over the UK. June 2003, July 2010, August 2009.

[Milhouse]

July 2010 wasn't a good month, unless you lived in the far south east. That month featured one of the worst, if not the worst NW-SE split I can honestly remember. August 2009 was largely the same, but the split was not quite as pronounced.

 

I knew July 2010 would be a controversial example lol.

[Milhouse]

Yes July 2010 was very much a SE takes all example of a NW/SE split, with the decent albeit quite cloudy conditions also stretching up to here. From the looks of the charts there was more of a southerly element to the warm spells during August 2012 which helped push the warm air further north. In July 2010 low pressure was often close by and winds were generally southwesterly hence the rather dull wet conditions for the north and west.

[J10]

July 2010 was a wet month for much of western and Northern Britain (very wet in places), but a much drier one for Eastern ( and SE areas) especially.

 

I think much of teh UK certainly western areas are waiting for a good August, last year wasn't too bad, albeit rather cool, but in recent year June had been the best summer month [12 the exception] and there have even good Julys after a series of wet ones.

[J10]

Yes July 2010 was very much a SE takes all example of a NW/SE split, with the decent albeit quite cloudy conditions also stretching up to here. From the looks of the charts there was more of a southerly element to the warm spells during August 2012 which helped push the warm air further north. In July 2010 low pressure was often close by and winds were generally southwesterly hence the rather dull wet conditions for the north and west.

 

From my memory [always dangerous lol ] there was a very warm spell to start that month for much of England, which the far west missed out on, I don't know if any one can confirm this.

[weatherguru14]

From what I recall the last week of July and the first couple of weeks of August 2012  was the only decent weather of that summer in my location. It was  during the  Olympics.The rest of the summer  was  muck.

[AderynCoch]

Yes July 2010 was very much a SE takes all example of a NW/SE split, with the decent albeit quite cloudy conditions also stretching up to here. From the looks of the charts there was more of a southerly element to the warm spells during August 2012 which helped push the warm air further north. In July 2010 low pressure was often close by and winds were generally southwesterly hence the rather dull wet conditions for the north and west.

That's an understatement. Exceptionally wet for many parts and several locations had their dullest July on record. An absolute dog turd of a summer month, with the jet stream getting stuck in the worst possible position. August 2009 was another execrable month where a NW/SE split hung around for weeks like a bad smell.

 

August 2012 wasn't the same overall but the NW/SE split that did take place around the middle of the month was absolutely atrocious. I remember the dreaded front (which always magically appears out of nowhere) sitting right on top of us for about 3-4 days straight bringing miserable wet conditions whilst the SE baked. A fitting epitaph to a vile "summer".

 

Honestly I'm not trying to spite others by being annoyed at them getting nice weather at my expense, but very often in these situations I not only miss out on the heat but the weather I do get is worse than it had been before. Case in point: the 15th of this month, when it reached 25C in the SE, was easily the worst day of the last couple of weeks here with suppressed temperatures, constant drizzle and not even a chink of sunshine. Like the weather version of Kafka.

Edited April 21, 2015 by AderynCoch

[summer blizzard]

That's an understatement. Exceptionally wet for many parts and several locations had their dullest July on record. An absolute dog turd of a summer month, with the jet stream getting stuck in the worst possible position. August 2009 was another execrable month where a NW/SE split hung around for weeks like a bad smell.

 

August 2012 wasn't the same overall but the NW/SE split that did take place around the middle of the month was absolutely atrocious. I remember the dreaded front (which always magically appears out of nowhere) sitting right on top of us for about 3-4 days straight bringing miserable wet conditions whilst the SE baked. A fitting epitaph to a vile "summer".

 

Honestly I'm not trying to spite others by being annoyed at them getting nice weather at my expense, but very often in these situations I not only miss out on the heat but the weather I do get is worse than it had been before. Case in point: the 15th of this month, when it reached 25C in the SE, was easily the worst day of the last couple of weeks here with suppressed temperatures, constant drizzle and not even a chink of sunshine. Like the weather version of Kafka.

 

After the nice April-June 2010 period July 10 was awful here being dull and humid but uneventful. August 10 was a welcome relief although i tend to be a fan of cool August's anyway.

[Summer of 95]

July 2010 had just 86 hours of sun at Shawbury. It was an absolute shocker of a month round here, despite not being particularly wet. That August 2012 one was terrible too, 30C in London and barely 20 everywhere else. Also late July 2012 there was a S/SE warm spell whike cloud sat over the north and Midlands and refused to move.

More recently there was Halloween last year, another SE v the rest stinker.

[Captain Shortwave]

Todays CFS update

 

June height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

Upper ridge over or just east of the UK, looks pretty dominant considering the rainfall totals are below normal. This would be a fine and warm month.

 

July

Height anomaly

Rainfall

temperature

 

This time we have a ridge over the UK and up towards Greenland. This pretty much places high pressure right over the UK, a very dry month with temperatures above or even well above normal.

 

August

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

An Atlantic dominated month with weather systems crossing to the north of the UK, rainfall is above normal for most areas. Not too bad temperature wise with these near or a little above normal.

[cheese]

More recently there was Halloween last year, another SE v the rest stinker.

Oh yes, I remember, but it did reach 19C here which, for the last day of October, is very respectable, and if it had occurred on 1 November, would have broken local records, and it did reach 20C in the 28th, so really can't complain about that. Quite a normal temperature range on an above-average day, like on 1 August 2013, reached 31C here and 34C in London. Standard.

 

August 2012, OTOH, was very annoying.Was actually a pleasant month and came in above average, but max temp was only 25C with an average high of 21C. That is very little fluctuation. I'd expect something like that in  New Zealand or somewhere.

Edited April 22, 2015 by cheese

[damianslaw]

Summers 2009-2011 saw a marked NW-SE split, with the SE seeing some decent sunny warm weather at times whilst the NW saw only fleeting spells, the best probably late June 2009 which produced high maxima not far off 30 degrees from memory.

 

Summer 2012 was a complete write off here, June and July shocking, August drier but not especially warm, indeed we failed to record 25 degrees at any time that summer, though managed it in late May which incidentally was the best period of summer weather that year.

 

Last 2 summers have delivered warm sunny weather nationwide, with 2 excellent July's in a row, making up for a long run of very below par July's.

 

As I've said we are overdue a very warm sunny dry August, not had one since 2003, statistically though it is much more difficult to end up drier and sunnier than June or July. May on many occasion is sunnier and drier than August.

[cheese]

Summers 2009-2011 saw a marked NW-SE split, with the SE seeing some decent sunny warm weather at times whilst the NW saw only fleeting spells, the best probably late June 2009 which produced high maxima not far off 30 degrees from memory.

 

Summer 2012 was a complete write off here, June and July shocking, August drier but not especially warm, indeed we failed to record 25 degrees at any time that summer, though managed it in late May which incidentally was the best period of summer weather that year.

 

Last 2 summers have delivered warm sunny weather nationwide, with 2 excellent July's in a row, making up for a long run of very below par July's.

 

As I've said we are overdue a very warm sunny dry August, not had one since 2003, statistically though it is much more difficult to end up drier and sunnier than June or July. May on many occasion is sunnier and drier than August.

May is our sunniest month here, followed by July, June and then August. August's shorter daylight hours often work against it. August is also our wettest month of the year, having 58mm on average, compared to 37mm for February (May has 43mm)

 

So it's normal here for May to be sunnier and drier than August, but August is obviously much warmer, and August 2013 bucked the trend of subpar August's, with a maximum of 31C on the 1st and an average max of around 22C if I recall. It was wet though - we had some storms.

Edited April 22, 2015 by cheese

[Weather-history]

I am hoping for some decent thundery plumes this summer ala summer 1994

[Captain Shortwave]

Todays CFS update

June

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

A swathe of higher heights across the mid-latitudes, the surface pressure shows core heights just west of the UK. Generally a dry month for most apart from the far north west of Scotland. Temperatures above normal for the time of year.

 

July

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

Difficult one this, both the 500mb and surface anomalies are quite non-de-script for the UK region. A weak ridge resides east of the UK as well as a ridge in the Atlantic. For the UK rainfall is above normal except for southern and eastern areas, and so is temperature. Probably a mixed month with showers or longer spells of rain, but mixed with some warmer periods with winds from the south at times.

 

August

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

Decent month this one with high pressure over or east of the UK, Ireland and NW Scotland seeing near or slightly above average rainfall whilst the rest of the UK is relatively dry. temperatures again on the warm side.

[Milhouse]

I am hoping for some decent thundery plumes this summer ala summer 1994

 

Faced with the question: several plume type set ups or a prolonged period of high pressure such as 2013 id go for the former. Its great to watch a plume develop on the models from Azores ridge, then high pressure transferring east, then a push of hot and humid conditions up from the south before it all goes bang!

 

Ideally it would start with a day of breezy westerlies as high pressure builds, then a couple of days of rising temperatures and more nationwide fine conditions culminating in a couple of very hot days with storms breaking out on the final day. Perfect!!

[Weather-history]

Todays CFS update

.

And today's Premium Bond numbers are.....isn't CFS just the weather model version of ERNIE?

[Captain Shortwave]

And today's Premium Bond numbers are.....isn't CFS just the weather model version of ERNIE?

I am doing this daily on the same run (06z) and marking the details with regards to temperature and rainfall. Hopefully I can collate a trend for each month and hopefully come up with something near a correct forecast. That said it will probably fail 

[summer blizzard]

I am doing this daily on the same run (06z) and marking the details with regards to temperature and rainfall. Hopefully I can collate a trend for each month and hopefully come up with something near a correct forecast. That said it will probably fail 

 

It was tried a year or 2 ago and it basically only flipped to the right pattern (bar the odd success like March and July 13) when it got to about 2 weeks. So it may show the correct May anomaly by now but it's unlikely to be showing the correct one for summer.

[Captain Shortwave]

It was tried a year or 2 ago and it basically only flipped to the right pattern (bar the odd success like March and July 13) when it got to about 2 weeks. So it may show the correct May anomaly by now but it's unlikely to be showing the correct one for summer.

You are probably right, to be honest the long rangers have been pretty poor this spring as none of them saw April as a warm and dry month for instance. Still it's only a bit of fun so I shall persevere.

June

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

Above average rain in the west and below average in the east suggests a westerly pattern, a lot of weak positive anomalies over the mid-latitudes suggesting that high pressure will probably dominate in otherwise a changeable pattern. Temperatures looking to be a little above normal.

 

July

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

This looks more distinctive, heights east of the UK giving a south to south easterly flow at times, temperatures are 2-3C above normal for most (exception being the north east where there could be mist and low cloud at times). Rainfall is mixed but above average spots in the usual storm hotspots, so maybe rain coming in some thundery downpours at times. 

 

August

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

Interesting pattern again, this suggesting a blocking pattern taking shape with heights between Scandinavia and Iceland, a generally easterly flow would be the result here. The UK is drier than average but note the large positive anomaly over France so the risk of thundery outbreaks in the south. Temperatures are again above average, coolest in the east. A generally warm and fine month though overall.

[Captain Shortwave]

Missed out yesterdays as I was too busy.

In a nutshell

June - Average westerly pattern, slightly above average temperatures and near normal rainfall.

July - High pressure north and east of the UK with a trough west/south west of the UK, above average rainfall and slightly above normal temperatures.

August - High pressure north east of the UK, drier and warmer than average conditions.

 

Today

June

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

Decent ridge through the UK, rainfall generally below normal except for northern and western Scotland. Temperatures on the warm side.

 

July

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

 

Heights to the east of the UK, rainfall generally below normal and temperatures well above normal (widely 2-4C above), this would be a very warm month if it came off.

 

August

Height anomaly

Rainfall

Temperature

The westerlies tend to get back in this month, but overall it is a north/south split with unsettled conditions in the north and drier and brighter weather in the south with the Azores high influencing the conditions more. Temperatures a little above normal.

[Milhouse]

Im liking the continued signal for a favourable position of high pressure during July.

[Summer Sun]

Jamstec's latest update shows a warmer and drier than average summer

 

[Milhouse]

If high pressure had moved a little further east during July 2013 it would have transformed a very good month into an exceptional one. For all its fine and very warm weather it just lacked a notable hot spell that would have really capped it off. Hopefully this year will be the one to get us the first 35c+ day or widespread 30c+ temps since 2006. June 27th 2011, July 22nd and August 1st 2013 have come closest.

Edited April 26, 2015 by Milhouse