Summer 2015

[cheese]

Well, today was much better than expected. BBC were going with 12C and heavy rain, WRF-NMM model showed rain early on before clearing, temps reaching 19C. Right now it's 18C, very humid, sunny intervals. Really not bad at all - definitely warm enough for a T-shirt out there.

 

oh, and the first 10C+ low in June - and the first in about 3 weeks!

Edited June 13, 2015 by cheese

[AderynCoch]

Well, today was much better than expected. BBC were going with 12C and heavy rain, WRF-NMM model showed rain early on before clearing, temps reaching 19C. Right now it's 18C, very humid, sunny intervals. Really not bad at all - definitely warm enough for a T-shirt out there.

 

oh, and the first 10C+ low in June - and the first in about 3 weeks!

Lucky escape. No rain at all here but there's been quite a lot not far to the south.

 

Sometimes the opposite occurs, like 13th July 2012 when the rain band was further north than expected and we had a terrible day - heavy rain all afternoon with a maximum of 14C. I only ever need a T-shirt in summer even when temperatures are below average but I needed extra layers that day - the nadir of an awful summer.

[hillbilly]

Yes about as wrong a forcast I have heard in a long time,my job today was cancelled on last nights forcast of continuous rain and 14 deg high.Very pleasant just a few spits early on and the local Halifax gala I ended up going to was very busy and the sun trying to burst through and my rain jacket in my bag  and me sporting a t shirt eating ice cream ,17 deg,Lovely!!!

[Guest]

Forgive me if this is the wrong place to post but an interesting stat is that yesterday - June 13 is the only day of the meteorological summer not to reach 30c. Of course that didn't change yesterday but an interesting point to share..

[Weather-history]

Forgive me if this is the wrong place to post but an interesting stat is that yesterday - June 13 is the only day of the meteorological summer not to reach 30c. Of course that didn't change yesterday but an interesting point to share..

Yes, it's has been discussed about for some years this odd quirk

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/38588-the-13th-of-june-enigma/

[Guest]

Yes, it's has been discussed about for some years this odd quirkhttps://forum.netweather.tv/topic/38588-the-13th-of-june-enigma/

thank you weather history. Definitely interesting reading that :-)

[stainesbloke]

Well, another garbage fest of a 'summer' weekend here. Chilly, gloomy, with a few periods of drizzle. Have had far better weekends in Oct. Despressing really!

[weatherguru14]

Joining up the  long range models and forecasts and summer.. I just picked up  a local paper  from the first of June.. There is a passage that says.. Weather forecastersd are predicting the hottest june on record since  records began in 1910..

That's just laugable. if you consider  how its been for most of the UK this month. and today its been about 11c here. almost half of what it should be. and its felt even colder than that.

Cant complain about the weather for the previous several days though  and this week isn't bad at all . its  just about what  I would call summer.. But  reading the long range forecasts. should never be taken litteral..

If you see headlines of hot summers or wet summers or above average or  heatwaves. don't take it serious until its  almost guaranteed. Its an easy thing to fall into.

for what its worth I don't think 2015 will go down in the record books for anything special when it comes to a summer. But I think it will be fairly dry and  June hasn't  been overly wet. Just not that warm apart from  the odd day of late..

[weatherguru14]

Misleading and exgeration? how come on the bbc  two nights ago.. They had the image of a dried up river bed  and a very settled out come, and how it would  last  until the end of June? Basically lying to the public?? .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

16.2C at nearly 10pm, very mild out there

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

How far do I need to head south into Mainland Europe to be guaranteed a week of 25C high temps?  I am fed up with 18C!

Edited June 17, 2015 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Summer Sun]

How far do I need to head south into Mainland Europe to be guaranteed a week of 25C high temps?  I am fed up with 18C!

 

Marseille is running in the mid to high 20's consistently http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2995469

 

Bordeaux is around the mid 20's as well http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/3031582

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Thanks for that Summer Sun.  France does have the perfect climate in my book.  Italy has too many thunderstorms and Spain too hot.

 

For some this cool weather is suiting them perfectly.  So I am pleased for them

Edited June 17, 2015 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[stainesbloke]

How far do I need to head south into Mainland Europe to be guaranteed a week of 25C high temps? I am fed up with 18C!

South of France is usually very nice at this time of year. Southern Spain perfect at the moment, 27C, not too hot and less chance of storms.

Anything better than here really. Cold windy cloudy muck to warm-ish, windy cloudy muck lol...just so dreary.. A nice sunny high or a thundery low would be great!

Edited June 17, 2015 by stainesbloke

[IanR]

the outlook does not look inspiring , more cloudy, drizzly north west airflow ?   which is becoming default direction for  96 percent of the year, and i am sick of it .  

[BornFromTheVoid]

Working on some analogues, and as far as I can tell so far, 1993 is the closest match, followed jointly by 1972, 1983, 1992 and 2014. The criteria I used were recent trends in the AO, NAO, PDO, AMO, QBO, Sunspots, SSTs in the mid North Atlantic and the forecast MEI values.

 

I'll post up a more detailed anaylsis in the next few days.

[summer blizzard]

Working on some analogues, and as far as I can tell so far, 1993 is the closest match, followed jointly by 1972, 1983, 1992 and 2014. The criteria I used were recent trends in the AO, NAO, PDO, AMO, QBO, Sunspots, SSTs in the mid North Atlantic and the forecast MEI values.

 

I'll post up a more detailed anaylsis in the next few days.

 

I'm with you on 92 and 93. I dropped the others because i was trying to get them to match closely over the prior quarter. 

[Mokidugway]

Same here, fast losing interest in UK weather ....

[cheese]

Working on some analogues, and as far as I can tell so far, 1993 is the closest match, followed jointly by 1972, 1983, 1992 and 2014. The criteria I used were recent trends in the AO, NAO, PDO, AMO, QBO, Sunspots, SSTs in the mid North Atlantic and the forecast MEI values.

 

I'll post up a more detailed anaylsis in the next few days.

Interesting - so quite mixed really. '92 and '93 were pretty bad, but 1983 and 2014 were alright - 1983 having that famously hot July.

Edited June 17, 2015 by cheese

[Weather-history]

Interesting - so quite mixed really. '92 and '93 were pretty bad, but 1983 and 2014 were alright - 1983 having that famously hot July.

1992 was an early summer with that very good May to June period.

[Methuselah]

1992 was an early summer with that very good May to June period.

If I remember correctly, 1992 was the one that went nasty at or around St Swithin's Day, and never really recovered? 1983, however, was a different kettle of fish, entirely...

Edited June 17, 2015 by Ed Stone
Sorry wrong year!

[Richard2901]

Still waiting for the first 20C of the year and because of the dire end to summer and autumn last year it has now been reached just once in 10 months (on 25th September).

 

Shocking and the worst I can remember. It really does feel as though this year is going to have one of the lowest annual maximums on record 

[Summer of 95]

If I remember correctly, 1992 was the one that went nasty at or around St Swithin's Day, and never really recovered? 1983, however, was a different kettle of fish, entirely...

Yes, 1992 was a real summer of two halves- lots of warm sun in May and June with a few good storms thrown in, then it had a poor July and absolutely dreadful August.

1993 on the other hand never really got started, it had a few nice days at the end of June but very little else. It was not so much wet as persistently cool and cloudy, in fact picture 2011 without the spring and autumn warm spells and you've pretty much got 1993.

[damianslaw]

Working on some analogues, and as far as I can tell so far, 1993 is the closest match, followed jointly by 1972, 1983, 1992 and 2014. The criteria I used were recent trends in the AO, NAO, PDO, AMO, QBO, Sunspots, SSTs in the mid North Atlantic and the forecast MEI values.

 

I'll post up a more detailed anaylsis in the next few days.

 

Mmm 5 quite different summers overall, 1972 was cool overall with a very cool June, but a better July and August with some warmer conditions and overall quite dry. 1983 produced an indifferent June, a scorcher of a July and an average August. 2014 coincidentally a bit similar to 1983 but with a better June, and wetter cooler August, but a very good July. 1992 produced a very decent June but then got progressively worse through July with a terrible August. 1993 never got started cool conditions overall with lots of cloudy often dank weather, very uninspiring.

 

I'd be happy with a summer ending up like 1983 or even 1972, but less so 2014 and definitely so 1992 and 1993.

[Methuselah]

Yes, 1992 was a real summer of two halves- lots of warm sun in May and June with a few good storms thrown in, then it had a poor July and absolutely dreadful August.

1993 on the other hand never really got started, it had a few nice days at the end of June but very little else. It was not so much wet as persistently cool and cloudy, in fact picture 2011 without the spring and autumn warm spells and you've pretty much got 1993.

I agree with all of that, So95...1993 was so bad that my tatties and runner-beans got frosted in July; and there was snow on the mountains nearby: my son and I have always called 1993 - the 'year without a summer'...