Summer 2015

[AderynCoch]

No doubt the sea will warm up just in time for winter.

Ha, was just thinking this myself.

 

Surely the frequent NWerlies we had during the winter have played their part in cooling the North Atlantic. It's such a poor wind direction at any time of year (cool in summer, not cold enough for snow in winter) but we could especially do without it now.

 

At least my corner of the Irish Sea is just about holding onto some yellow on that chart.

[Derp Patrol]

Well we are averaging 20.9C/10.2C up until Saturday, so certainly cool nights. Also an annoying northerly wind has made it feel cooler. After today it looks downhill, with below average temperatures maxing out at 17C-19C for the forseeable future. Very poor for the time of year.   

[cheeky_monkey]

Well we are averaging 20.9C/10.2C up until Saturday, so certainly cool nights. Also an annoying northerly wind has made it feel cooler. After today it looks downhill, with below average temperatures maxing out at 17C-19C for the forseeable future. Very poor for the time of year.   

why is it poor?..its not raining or dull..in fact its been a beautiful sunny weekend..perfect summer weather..this outlook is good to. Why does have to be hot to be good?

[stainesbloke]

why is it poor?..its not raining or dull..in fact its been a beautiful sunny weekend..perfect summer weather..this outlook is good to. Why does have to be hot to be good?

It has indeed been a sunny weekend, which I'm very grateful for. However, Sat was marred by a strong, cold wind with only Sun afternoon being anywhere near 'perfect summer weather' with both evenings decidedly chilly. Personally, I'd rather not feel cold in summer, I spend 9-10 months in this country feeling the chill and that's living near London. It doesn't have to be hot to be good, true, but even average would be decent in the sunshine and that has been quite hard to achieve bar the odd day with the endless howling winds we've endured this year making it feel so much colder.

Like you say, the outlook is encouraging for some settled, warm conditions so keeping fingers crossed for that.

Edited June 8, 2015 by stainesbloke

[sebastiaan1973]

New UKMO update. Probably warmer than normal conditions. Remarkable warm in the Pacific. El Nino and on the west coast of North America. Further on the colder than average in the Northern Atlantic Ocean.

[cheese]

why is it poor?..its not raining or dull..in fact its been a beautiful sunny weekend..perfect summer weather..this outlook is good to. Why does have to be hot to be good?

It doesn't - but I don't consider 15C at 3pm to be 'perfect summer weather'. I don't know anyone who does - that is a cool June day by any definition. Not to mention that it's cooled down very vast in the evening thanks to the clear skies combined with a cool air mass. The low this morning was 4C - not exactly the height of summer, now is it?

 

Sunshine just isn't enough - it's actually more of a tease than anything because it looks warm, until you actually go outside into the gusty wind and then you realise.. nope, it's still chilly, better get my jacket.

Edited June 8, 2015 by cheese

[cheeky_monkey]

It doesn't - but I don't consider 15C at 3pm to be 'perfect summer weather'. I don't know anyone who does - that is a cool June day by any definition. Not to mention that it's cooled down very vast in the evening thanks to the clear skies combined with a cool air mass. The low this morning was 4C - not exactly the height of summer, now is it?

 

Sunshine just isn't enough - it's actually more of a tease than anything because it looks warm, until you actually go outside into the gusty wind and then you realise.. nope, it's still chilly, better get my jacket.

I wasn't talking about the weather at your house I was quoting somebody else who said 21c was poor for the time of year

[cheese]

I wasn't talking about the weather at your house I was quoting somebody else who said 21c was poor for the time of year

That person didn't say 21C was poor though - they were commenting on a) the cool nights and b) the poor forecast - below average temperatures. He lives in London, and the average high in June there is 21.2C, so 17-19C is poor.

Edited June 8, 2015 by cheese

[cheeky_monkey]

That person didn't say 21C was poor though - they were commenting on a) the cool nights and b) the poor forecast - below average temperatures. He lives in London, and the average high in June there is 21.2C, so 17-19C is poor.

do you know how you work averages?..doesn't mean every day should be 21.2c means some days can be a lot hotter say 30c or a lot cooler say 15c so its pretty normal weather and not poor or disgusting etc.

[cheese]

do you know how you work averages?..doesn't mean every day should be 21.2c means some days can be a lot hotter say 30c or a lot cooler say 15c so its pretty normal weather and not poor or disgusting etc.

Of course - but the forecast for London is rather poor, with highs largely below 20C rather than above - and the outlook portrays a similar theme. Could all change of course - but the outlook is below average, as it is here. Maybe not disgusting, but pretty disappointing, especially since it feels like forever since June was last decent.

Edited June 8, 2015 by cheese

[cheeky_monkey]

Of course - but the forecast for London is rather poor, with highs largely below 20C rather than above - and the outlook portrays a similar theme. Could all change of course - but the outlook is below average, as it is here.

I would agree if it was forecast to be a wash out with lots of rain or showers and below 20c it would indeed be poor..but with lots of dry bright weather in the offing I call that pretty decent.

[weatherguru14]

You  cant win.. You either get cold sunny weather as soon as the temps  starts to rise the clouds get darker and it looks like it will rain.Nice morning here near leeds.. Now clouds  building up.. .

Oh for sunny warm weather to last for  a week or 2 .We are an island  north west facing the atlantic. You get what you are given . been  a  poor start to the summer for most of the UK...

Edited June 8, 2015 by weatherguru14

[Lake District Blizzards]

had a low of 2.8c this morning

 

June mean now 3.1c below average

 

every month has been below average here so far this year - with each month gradually becoming more and more below average as the year has progressed (Apart from April which was only 0.3c below averge)

Edited June 8, 2015 by Lake District Blizzards

[weatherguru14]

Lake, that's after the met office claimed the next few months are  in the likelihood  going to be higher than average.. they are just as clueless has the rest.. Even  Netweather  has June as above average  That's likely to be wrong. also.

[Richard2901]

Awful start to summer as usual. Typical post-1998 nightmare. The increase in pressure has not made an iota of difference. The same nagging NW'ly is present, same 10am cloud up and it was even raining with pressure of 1036mb. Not just a trivial amount either. Any other month it would be dry but it doesn't matter what synoptics you get in this vile month these days. The weather is always dire

 

As usual the weekends seeing the worst of the weather with next weekend looking like a complete write-off on top of the poor one just gone. Just 11C forecast. Absolutely sick of it. At least between 2007-12 we tended to good weekends in spring but this year and last year they have been horrific throughout.

Edited June 8, 2015 by Richard2901

[Woollymummy]

Richard, if you need a place to camp down south, you are welcome, you guys up north could do with a warm break like we have had, I hope it arrives soon! 

[Airedalejoe]

had a low of 2.8c this morning

 

June mean now 3.1c below average

 

every month has been below average here so far this year - with each month gradually becoming more and more below average as the year has progressed (Apart from April which was only 0.3c below averge)

Same here though I don't have figures. I dare bet it's even colder here with regular winds off the cold sea. One warm week in April and the rest cold-average. I'm sure I recall one of the BBC forecasters in April saying something about a record warm April or in the top 10 warmest April's as the month drew to a close. Where do they take their readings as that couldn't be further from the truth for the North?

[cheese]

April was definitely warm here, average high above 15C and reached 20C twice. Nearly as warm as May was.

[Derp Patrol]

why is it poor?..its not raining or dull..in fact its been a beautiful sunny weekend..perfect summer weather..this outlook is good to. Why does have to be hot to be good?

 

Why is it poor? Because it was below average, 19C with some sun and lots of wind that made it feel chilly. 

 

I don't like cool weather, and seeing a week of below average weather forecast does not please me. I don't care if it's dry, it should be 21C and mostly sunny at this time of year, not 19C with strong northerly winds - I was annoyed more because of the forecast - we had 15C and 16C forecast yesterday for the weekend! Now that has changed thankfully. 

 

Thankfully the outlook has improved, 26C and a chance of a thunderstorm on Friday here

 

Edited June 8, 2015 by Derp Patrol

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just a week until the sunrise time stabilises before heading back in the other direction and just under 2 weeks now until the longest day. About 6 weeks until I usually start noticing the nights drawing in....just to cheer everyone up

[Mark Bayley]

4.8c here, after what was quite chilly day. Certainly felt unusual for June. Could easily have been late March/early April. Coldest night of June so far is 4.2c, so perhaps in with a chance of beating that tonight.  

[Costa Del Fal]

Just a week until the sunrise time stabilises before heading back in the other direction and just under 2 weeks now until the longest day. About 6 weeks until I usually start noticing the nights drawing in....just to cheer everyone up

Enjoy but so very far until winter yet. Summer hasn't really started to me yet. Most follow the astronomical calendar. I won't notice much till late July. Now let us enjoy our time please.

[Nouska]

Not an awful start to the summer, you have to look back to 2007 and 2012 to massive deluges and flooding, just very mixed currently as has been the case since the back end of April. We just haven't had a prolonged period of heat or a long period of the jet stream skirting northwards.

All of this I think is due to the current ssts, checked the solar sites and activity at the moment is quite healthy currently.

Wonder if summer blizzard has managed to collect some pdo data so analogues can be made? I know gavin's friend stuart markham has done some analogues and wondering if summer blizzards analogue list will be the same?

 

The last rotation was exceptionally quiet for so soon after maximum - we'll see if it picks up in the one just beginning. Must be remembered that it, in itself, is not a forecast tool for summer.

 

 

I doubt analogues will be of much use to us if the signals from the ocean and atmosphere refuse to synchronise as expected.

 

Chart courtesy of Dr Juergen Matzka, GFZ Potsdam.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

freezing cold wind again, had enough of it now

[stainesbloke]

freezing cold wind again, had enough of it now

Me too, had enough of it to last a decade. Howling again today, freezing cold as the sun is completely hidden by grey muck. Can tolerate it in winter but not June. At least the end of the week looks much warmer here, thankfully.