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Summer 2015


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High pressure needs to shift further east next week then things will be a whole lot better. but at the moment its all looking rather boring.

 

 

I can only see it shifting westwards sorry, boring yes but after the windy May/early June i think lots are looking forward to something calmer.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

I can only see it shifting westwards sorry, boring yes but after the windy May/early June i think lots are looking forward to something calmer.

 

Well yes thats one positive about the outlook. This wind of late has been most annoying.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Well with AMO going negative I can only foresee cooler summers with persistent low pressure systems. I feel like the warm, sunny summers of my childhood are going to be a very distant memory.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

The first half of June 1995 had a persistent trough stuck to the east of the UK feeding down very cool winds. Who would have thought the summer would have turned out so good. Not pattern matching really, just looking for Junes that started off quite cool. The first third of June 1989 looks horrific

 

Rrea00119890603.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

The first half of June 1995 had a persistent trough stuck to the east of the UK feeding down very cool winds. Who would have thought the summer would have turned out so good. Not pattern matching really, just looking for Junes that started off quite cool. The first third of June 1989 looks horrific

 

Rrea00119890603.gif

 

2005 was another one, a cool first half and a very warm second half if I remember rightly. Some hot temperatures in the final third of the month and a really spectacular storm I recall (around the 19th).

 

Perhaps a trend for Junes in years ending in 5??! Can only hope this summer has lots in common with 95!

Edited by Scorcher
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Just looked at todays max temperatures. 21C around The Wash. Since when was that forecast :shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

My advice to everyone generally is to avoid writing off June based on not much more than general pessimism.

 

We know next to nothing that's reliable about what'll happen beyond the next 7-10 days, and there's lots of scope for alterations in detail and positioning even for that period.

 

Beyond that we know almost nothing.


Well with AMO going negative I can only foresee cooler summers with persistent low pressure systems. I feel like the warm, sunny summers of my childhood are going to be a very distant memory.

 

 

So on the above basis, this comment is meaningless.


I can only see it shifting westwards sorry, 

And even this is by no means a given.

Edited by William of Walworth
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Lol, BBQ anyone :)post-9614-0-34216800-1433275820_thumb.jp

It should be a good summer, it's a year ending in a 5! 1975 was a brilliant summer that was overshadowed by 1976, 1985; alright that one let us down, but 1995 to some is regarded as the best summer of recent years and 2005 was a good summer too.

 

2015 must continue this trend.

how old are you Scott !!!:)..
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Lol, BBQ anyone :)attachicon.gifimage.jpg

how old are you Scott !!! :)..

-5 uppers returning to Scotland? the sort of charts you'd expect to see in Autumn

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I've seen a few people pointing to El Nino as something to pin their hopes to.. 

 

June and July 2012

June 1991

June 1987

 

All months with El Nino values (not sure if any was long enough to be declared) during the summer which produced 1C below the 1981-2010 average.

 

El Nino sometimes giveth (06, 94), but it also sometimes taketh away.  

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Some ugly charts rearing their head again. Depressingly cool. Everytime it looks like the UK is the only target of these cool uppers and seem to skirt around Scandinavia and just head for us only. :(

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

I can only see it shifting westwards sorry, boring yes but after the windy May/early June i think lots are looking forward to something calmer.

 

So that case plumes/continental flows shift east and high pressures shift west.. great... lol.

  

Well with AMO going negative I can only foresee cooler summers with persistent low pressure systems. I feel like the warm, sunny summers of my childhood are going to be a very distant memory.

 

I thought a positive AMO was potentially linked to wetter summers? 

 

It looked pretty negative around the time of 1975/6 anyway http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg

 

But as others have suggested above I'm not too worried about this summer yet, just feeling a bit cheated about the latest big downgrades (a trend I hope doesn't continue.) Many good ones only really get going later in June. 

Edited by Evening thunder
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

John Hammond said on the bbc forecast for the week ahead that it would be predominantly dry, warm and we would have some cool nights for next week. He also hinted at a jet stream battleground too.

 

I do wonder where we'll head post mid month. It could make or break summer TBH given some recent summer patterns.

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

I see the gfs have gone back to a warmish spell midweek next week lasting into the following weekend..The northerly as gone again. I think that's the likely scenario if the high pressure is to build in over us..A  drop in temperture after the weekend then the sun to break through and the mercury to rise.. But like everything nothing is set in stone.

I don't get this  really cold weather  with a high not far away.. this is June  after all But like  I said. who knows what will happen. :rofl:

Edited by weatherguru14
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

I see the gfs have gone back to a warmish spell midweek next week lasting into the following weekend..The northerly as gone again. I think that's the likely scenario if the high pressure is to build in over us..A  drop in temperture after the weekend then the sun to break through and the mercury to rise.. But like everything nothing is set in stone.

I don't get this  really cold weather  with a high not far away.. this is June  after all But like  I said. who knows what will happen. :rofl:

 

Its the position if the high thats not helping and the particularly cool upper temperatures that are going to get trapped within the high pressure during the first half of next week. After that some warmer air will get dragged into the mix and that will raise temperatures from midweek onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Ok its mid summer but if your lucky you can still get decent temps from high pressure to the west of the UK. 27c in bournemouth on this day.

 

Rrea00119890715.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

Bournemouths sheltered from northerlies anyway ,    but it seemed easier to get those high temps back then. doubt you will get 27c if the high sits west with a northerly like that this year,  and we supposed to be in a warming climate too , but you never know,    

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

We have notably cold SST values over NE atlantic at present which will take some shifting. Any northwesterly airstreams at least in the next month will bring colder than average conditions, the models are suggesting heights sticking to the SW hence a colder than average period of weather could be on the cards.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Mediterranean climates (Valencia is perfect)
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London

Summer? What summer. We are forecast a high of 16C next Tuesday, 5C below average, and I don't see this June ending up any good.  :nonono:  :nonono:  :cold:

 

We will have two decent days, this Friday and Saturday, but still Saturday was forecast to be 32C just 5 days ago, now only 25C  :nonono: Then back to below average rubbish 19C days, with a few horror days thrown in for good measure.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Ok its mid summer but if your lucky you can still get decent temps from high pressure to the west of the UK. 27c in bournemouth on this day.

 

Rrea00119890715.gif

July 89 was generally a hot month so no doubt a lot of very warm air would have been in the vicinity at the time..so im sure mid 20s would have been widespread across the country at this time so 27c in Bournemouth wouldn't be unusual during this month.

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

I think it's about the detail really, this set up had warm uppers circling round the high with the cooler northerlies further east

Rrea00219890715.gif

It could probably happen this year if it wanted to, though perhaps slightly tempered by cooler SSTs to our west

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

2005 was another one, a cool first half and a very warm second half if I remember rightly. Some hot temperatures in the final third of the month and a really spectacular storm I recall (around the 19th).

 

Perhaps a trend for Junes in years ending in 5??! Can only hope this summer has lots in common with 95!

 

Indeed, the first half of June 2005 wasn't too different to what is being progged for the first half of this month, an unsettled first few days then dry and quite cool with pretty high pressure affecting the country. Then a brief unsettled spell midmonth which turned the tables to something much warmer during the second half. It's worth noting that the high that brought very pleasant weather in the first full week of June 2005 also moved westwards to allow chilly northerly winds as a trough moved down from Scandinavia. This later got swallowed up by a bigger one in the Atlantic by the 14th and with high pressure moving up from the south, we were quickly in a moist southwesterly flow by the 16th which became a hot southerly by the 18th. 

 

Fingers crossed for some more notable temperatures later in the month. Meanwhile, I like the look of a clear high pressure even if temperatures aren't that high.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes Scott, Clear blue sky's light winds and bright sunshine here, Really does feel pleasant out today.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

The first summery day of the meteorological summer. It feels like ages since the last one, because of the garbage we had throughout May.

 

Could well be ages until next one, bbc looked pants tomorrow for W areas, zilch chance of storms, no sun at all and rain from midday

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