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Milhouse

Summer 2015

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Well BST has begun, the light evenings are here so lets get some summer talk started. Its round about now that thoughts are turning towards possible heatwaves, thunderstorms and Spanish Plumes. So what will Summer 2015 bring?

 

Heres a peach of a chart from August 1995 to get you in the mood

 

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8)

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Fun fun fun, in the sun sun sun, if all goes well.

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Well BST has begun, the light evenings are here so lets get some summer talk started. Its round about now that thoughts are turning towards possible heatwaves, thunderstorms and Spanish Plumes. So what will Summer 2015 bring?

 

Heres a peach of a chart from August 1995 to get you in the mood

 

Rrea00119950811.gif

8)

 

Would be nice if a similar Winter was to follow....  Oops, this is the Summer thread!

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I posted this in the model ramps thread the other day but it's probably better placed in here:

 

Are there any meaningful signals yet as to what summer could hold? (And I stress "could"!)

 

I've read a few things about the type of summer that often follows a type of spring, the number of bad/good summers there are in a row, etc... but I'm not convinced those are meaningful indicators because they seem to cancel each other out depending on the evidence you use.

 

I believe El Nino could be weakening the Azores high at the moment - is that likely to remain true during the summer months?

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Let the 2015 storm frustration begin!

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Thinking 2003 type of Summer with a little more diversity.

'Hot hearted Summer' :-)

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2003 was a topsy turvy summer, i.e not as dry as some might think. but temperature wise it was almost constantly warm despite a brief cool unsettled spell at the end of June/beginning of July. Despite July being quite a wet month it didnt prevent the grass round here looking as parched in Autumn as ive ever seen it.

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I'd say the years that are mostly like this year are 2006, 2004, 1994, 1988, 1987, 1984, 1981, 1977, 1953.

When I see that list, I ask myself what are the point of analogues? They are all over the place that list. No consistency at all. How the conclusion that this year is like those years is baffling.

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In fairness i think the daily star are exaggerating that a tad. All depends on solar activity, qbo, glaam index, pdo, mei, ice melt and the north Atlantic ssts.

The confidence I'd say for this summer in forecasting is very low, we'll probably get a better idea in a months time what the summer will do.

I'd say the years that are mostly like this year are 2006, 2004, 1994, 1988, 1987, 1984, 1981, 1977, 1953.

Could be wrong on this but that's what I think currently.

A good mixture of good,average and poor summers there!!

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Cooler and wetter than the last two.

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Seems to me that a southerly tracking jet stream summer forecast is being predicted, then again that's probably down to the solar and enso combination.

 

What were similar forecasts predicting for the summers of 2013 and 2014?

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August 2013 was quite decent here, a slightly cooler version of July here with plenty of dry and warm conditions. But as its just a smidgen cooler than July on average it really should have been the stand out month in recent summers but that hasnt been the case.

 

But in my opinion id take a lovely July over a lovely August any day.

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One thing I'd like to see this summer is a decent August. Over the recent years June and July have brought some very nice weather with them, whilst August seems to be the joker in the pack. Even May and September have been pretty good too.

 

August, it's your turn... and it's my 18th this year, so I'd like a good birthday!

 

 

Yes the last appreciably warm August was 2003 I think and even that one turned out a rather cloudy lacklustre affair. However, it is always more difficult to achieve sustained dry settled conditions in August than in June and July. Many recent Augusts have been either wet or simply cloudy cool affairs. September on the other hand has tended to make up for disappointing August, lost track of the number of Septembers with a lengthy warm dry spell, it has become a singularity in recent years.

 

Always rate May - July as the most likely period to deliver a sustained warm dry sunny spell at some stage.

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Yes, a good August would be a welcome change. 2013 was actually very respectable and had it occurred in 2007, 2008, 2011 or 2012 would have been regarded a lot higher than it is. Alas, it is overshadowed by that wonderful July. Looking back through years of archives, August seemed to be so much better before 2004 with the unsettled rubbish not really kicking in until September. This swap between August and September seems to have become a lot more common in the 2000s, not something that is particularly welcome.

 

It will also be May's turn to be settled, so often an unsettled month, it can bring perfect summer conditions under the right setup. The last largely dry and settled May was 2010.

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The last 10-12 days of May 2012 were also very respectable. They had mostly wall-to-wall sunshine and temperatures were up into the mid-twenties every day. Unfortuantely the pleasant spell was followed by a horrendous June and first half of July.

 

Yes indeed! A beautiful spell of weather, which possibly stands out because of how below par the rest of May and of course June was. Funny how had the late May bank holiday not been moved to the first weekend in June, it would have been the best in many many years.

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Cfs v2 predicted good July's in both 2013 and 2014. I'd say they did pretty well really. Think el nino is probably going to have some sort of effect on this summer in the sense that the azores high isn't going to be as strong as you think. Also solar activity is dropping. Would be interesting to see Alex's musing for this summer as he probably would agree with me on it.

 

It'll be interesting to see what CFS comes up with for this summer then. When is best to view CFS for the summer months? Is there a 'reliable' timeframe for them?

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Yes indeed! A beautiful spell of weather, which possibly stands out because of how below par the rest of May and of course June was. Funny how had the late May bank holiday not been moved to the first weekend in June, it would have been the best in many many years.

 

Funnily enough easterly spells such as that one at the end of May 2012 have actually brought some of my more memorable summer moments in recent years. Temperature wise we only just scraped 20c but it was the pure blue skies that really stood out. Late May 2009 also stands out. But that also collapsed into a much cooler unseasonal start to June.

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Speaking of weather patterns..  It seems to me every time we have a good summer we have a warm start to may. The first week of may being summer like in tempertures. followed by a  decent or excellent summer.. 1995/2003/2006 and  I recall the first week of  may in 2013 was  pretty good also.2013 turned into the best summer  in  the last/4/5 years  previously.

Am sure someone with a good  memory will  remind me. wasn't it 1995  that early may had really high tempertures??. Just recall it being extremely warm so early on..

 

Anyhow for  summer 2015. aslong as we get similar summers to the last 2.. I wont  complain..maybe a good August for a change :yahoo: .an heatwave in June would be great. :D

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Speaking of weather patterns..  It seems to me every time we have a good summer we have a warm start to may. The first week of may being summer like in tempertures. followed by a  decent or excellent summer.. 1995/2003/2006 and  I recall the first week of  may in 2013 was  pretty good also.2013 turned into the best summer  in  the last/4/5 years  previously.

Am sure someone with a good  memory will  remind me. wasn't it 1995  that early may had really high tempertures??. Just recall it being extremely warm so early on..

 

Anyhow for  summer 2015. aslong as we get similar summers to the last 2.. I wont  complain..maybe a good August for a change :yahoo: .an heatwave in June would be great. :D

 

Yes there was a warm spell from memory late April/early May 95 but it was preceeded by preety chilly conditions in mid May and first half of June. Early May 97 also saw a shortlived warm spell followed by a dramatic turnaround.

 

Early-Mid May 98 and 08 were excellent for warmth and sunshine, but both degenerated into very unsettled second halves, and preety poor summers thereafter.

 

Perhaps a short lived warm spell in early May is better than something more protracted. Summers 95 and 97 delivered heat.

 

Another early hot spell in May occurred in 1990 - a good summer followed thereafter. May 89 also saw much warmth in May and an excellent summer thereafter.

 

However, the warmest May in recent decades 1992 was followed by a poor July and August though June was good.

 

Its all swings and roundabouts, trying to find clues in what might happen in summer based on weather in May rather a fruitless exercise, though on occasion clues do often emerge.

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I hope that theres less easterly spells than last year, but i guess the law of averages meant that SW England and Wales were due a very good summer and it was the turn of Eastern England to come off second best. It just seemed that any high that set up close to our shores last summer dragged in a lot of low cloud and cooler temperatures.

 

I recall many of those in the SE and East Anglia saying last summer had been unremarkable whilst move a couple of hundred miles further west and it was very good.

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