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Nick F

2015 Virtual Storm Chase Thread

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A few videos of chasers caught in the circulation of the tornado that went through Norman, Oklahoma yesterday. Pretty insane stuff:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbaC4jguIj8

 

 

 

A lot of tornado reports (50):

 

post-1052-0-92896900-1430985304_thumb.pn

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

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Ok, this is turning into a multi-day severe weather outbreak over the central and southern Plains. Classic set-up for a severe outbreak, with a 500mb trough/low over California later today swinging across SW USA then NE towards the central Plains on Sunday, increasingly strong 500mb SWly flow - with 500mb speed max starting tomorrow over far west Texas and New Mexico then transferring to central/southern Plains on Saturday:

 

post-1052-0-77813800-1430986718_thumb.gi

post-1052-0-02967300-1430986736_thumb.gi

post-1052-0-21406500-1430986760_thumb.gi

 

Slight risk today, though some uncertainties due to early day convection. Enhanced risk tomorrow for central/W Texas and SW Oklahoma, certainly worth following this as the 500mb flow increases and the surface conditions looking favourable to come together for tornadoes.

 

Saturday looks like it may end up with a HIGH RISK, already on 45% probabilities for day 3. Gonna be a big day and a full-on initiation for newbies on Tour 1, as I'm sure Paul will be on this one as the best risk area is in reach of DFW:

 

post-1052-0-79261200-1430986871_thumb.gipost-1052-0-07153700-1430986896_thumb.gi

Edited by Nick F
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From yesterdays reports, looking like 6T';s reported and the largest hail was 4.25".....ouch softball size:

 

2340 425 3 N RHOME WISE TX 3309 9748 SOFTBALL SIZED HAIL

Edited by Dorsetbred

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Hwy 287 the highway to heaven between Witchita Falls to Childress in Texas looks a good bet for a target today. A MD issued for likely tornado watch:

 

post-1052-0-10421100-1431106018_thumb.gi

 

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0543
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX/SOUTHWEST OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

   VALID 081722Z - 081845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
   NORTH TX INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK...INCLUDING A MULTI-MODAL-RELATED
   TORNADO/LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY
   BE NEEDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX STORM MODE INCLUDING SOME LOOSELY CLUSTERED
   SUPERCELLS IS EVOLVING AT MIDDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE
   AND WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX. AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO
   STEADILY OCCUR NEAR/JUST NORTH OF A PRIOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
   WESTERN NORTH TX...WHILE THICKER CLOUD COVER HAS TENDED TO LINGER
   INTO OK AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT CLUSTERED SUPERCELLS
   WILL TEND TO PERSIST EAST-NORTHEASTWARD POTENTIALLY AS AN
   UPSCALE-GROWING COMPLEX INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF NORTH TX AND
   ADJACENT WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK CENTERED ALONG THE RED RIVER VICINITY.
   LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE PRIMARY RISK IN THE SHORT-TERM
   /EARLY AFTERNOON/...BUT DAMAGING WINDS/SOME TORNADO RISK SHOULD
   BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN AS ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
   OCCURS.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/08/2015
 

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Actually thinking south of Witchita Falls, TX is where I would target based on HRRR 10m wind/significant tornado charts:

 

post-1052-0-98579900-1431107080_thumb.gi

 

Want to be SE of that mass of storms between Childress, Amarillo/Plainview in the clearer skies:

 

post-1052-0-73036300-1431107187_thumb.gi

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I'm becoming very concerned about the Red River Valley.  The convection thus far has well to the N and W and SPS.  You have these bands of convection that try to get going oriented NW-SE that haven't fully initiated as of yet.  The environment continues to destabilize in this region.  The FWD 1800 UTC sounding has a large area of CAPE prior to its termination just above 500 mb.  SPC mesoanalysis only indicates about 100-200 m^2/s^2 of eff. SRH, but forecasts that to increase as the afternoon progresses, to around 200-300 m^2/s^2.  T/Td spreads at the sfc are very manageable, ranging from 7-11°F, and the FWD sounding shows quality moisture through the depth of the boundary layer.  I would anticipate development in the next few hours to the southeast of the current convection, and I think the environment will likely be extremely favorable for tornadoes by that time.  In short, I fear we may be facing a localized tornado outbreak along the Red River Valley this afternoon and evening.

 

 

^ Taken from a local storm chaser on the American weather forum I use, just an hour ago. Looks like things MAY be heading towards more severe ingredients than originally thought earlier in the day today. FWIW Red River Valley seperates the S border of Oklahoma and N Texas, around the DFW area...I BELIEVE.

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The cell south of quanah is very intense precipitation, wouldnt like to be in that now it is tornado warned.

david drummond cell east of crosbyton has just gone tornado warned too - clearer view of system.

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From last night's reports we have 3T's, with the largest hail reported at 4.5".

1931 450 6 W SLATON LUBBOCK TX 3344 10175 SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL AROUND POSEY GIN WEST OF SLATON. REPORTS OF WINDOWS BLOWN OUT

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Last night a let down... and I'm afraid after what it looked like earlier in the week, today is heading that way too! Annoyingly, the MCS that have been around each day this week haven't allowed sufficient atmopsheric recovery for potential to be fully reached. 

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It's looking as if this weekend could be a great finalee for tour 1 :-)

post-16872-0-92003900-1431508954_thumb.p

Edited by bristolstormchaser

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So if you're vitual chasing where would you chase today?

 

NW Oklhoma for me.

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So if you're vitual chasing where would you chase today?

 

NW Oklhoma for me.

yep agree W/NW Oklahoma for me lets hope for a good night of viewing and everybody keeps safe

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Friday to Sunday looks very active again!

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Any ideas on next weeks forecast for us tour 2ers?

I think that you may get a rinse and repeat of the last week. Initially from say midweek it looks like any activity will be confined to Texas, but the next major focus should be next weekend where at this point it looks like another shortwave trough will be ejected from the Pacific coast into the plains and a similar pattern to the last fews days will emerge. 

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Looking highly probable of a MODERATE risk will be issued in the next SPC update for southern Oklahoma and Noth Texas and the enhanced area to be extended.

https://www.facebook.com/NWSNorman?fref=nf

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