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Nick F

2015 Virtual Storm Chase Thread

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Think its a suck it and see, next hour and a half  are crucial

some of the cells are real messy.

 

however, SVRHD Lawrence McEwen has a very good system 

 

edited to add awesome - dont know how to screen shots....

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Fantastic structure on the cell pushing through Dublin Tx.

post-5386-0-99561600-1430085140_thumb.pn

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yep just watching SVRHD.com on tvn amazing 

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Lovely wall cloud on this stream of the supercell just vacating Dublin, Texas

 

post-1052-0-64573300-1430085881_thumb.jp

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now moving to dodge the very large sounding hail

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There is a reason we have shelved the late April and Early May chases and so for the 6th year on the trot the first 5 days of May are looking decidedly grim once again.

 

The Plains of America will be closed for the next week or so......

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As Paul said the plains more or less shut down now for a week at least.

Some minor events possible but the moisture doesn't return until around 5th May

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Back to hibernation, wake me up when the first tour begins... :lazy: 

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Extended GFS brings moisture and troughing back into the Plains from 6th May.

Upper air pattern looks more favourable moving from 7th May into second week May.

 

I am therefore likely to hit the go button on a chase 7th - 17th May, hoping for two or three decent events. Of course you can never be sure but history dictates that the general pattern at the 10 day range is pretty well modelled these days. The finer details of course will be left to much nearer the time - namely between your first coffee of the morning and the lunchtime chilli burrito.

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Will be flying 6th May (1 week today) so will be under the same Meso's as you, our tours actually start Saturday 9th so hoping the pattern is active.

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I'll be hoping to hit the ground running on the 7th Paul and I'm planning on being joined by Tony Gilbert from the 12th.

If we don't meet under (or rather close to) a decent wall cloud we should at least share a steak or two one evening 😀

The only slight concern is the number of chasers that might converge on isolated supercells - it could get quite lively on the roads.

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Weekend chaser convergence is the worst, weekdays aren't generally too bad unless it's a hyped event.

 

Worst case scenario is not being able to get into Applebees before midnight with so many chasers reliving the storm that got away.

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The flow and upper pattern across the CONUS becomes more favourable from the 5th May and extended GFS has a few potential risk days, especially 10th with a 70kn H500 above some nice surface instability in N KS area.

It would be fair to say the H500s aren't high end charts in terms of inducing deep shear but there will definitely be opportunities to be had, and maybe less risk means more gain with numbers on the roads lower.

 

As I do final preparations for my tour starting 7th May things are looking OK at the moment.

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Hi Neil

 

You still going with Tony ? Or doing a single person chase ?

 

Still looking nice from the end of this week for a more substantial risk

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Hi Neil

 

You still going with Tony ? Or doing a single person chase ?

 

Still looking nice from the end of this week for a more substantial risk

Hi Paul

We are meeting now to discuss it. ATM I am solo until at least the 13th. Tony may come out then otherwise leave it until outlook looks higher end risk (maybe end May). I am going to San Diego fir business 18th May and my chase is tied in with that.

Whatever I'll see you out and about from end of next week.

Neil

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Nice cell in s Lincoln SE Nebraska,Jason cooley on it.

 

post-16960-0-61747800-1430699129_thumb.p

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SPC have a 15% probability now for OK/TX for Sat 9th. Tour 1 going to hit the ground running by the looks of things.

I'm almost there with prep - mifi and booster booked, car paid (note excess insurance seperate to reduce cost at desk), first night hotel Days Inn Denton Thurs/Fri if anyone is in the area for a catch-up.

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tornado warning west of fort stockton Texas watching david drummond on tvn amazing 

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tornado warning west of fort stockton Texas watching david drummond on tvn amazing 

Just checked out the latest on David drummond feed and there is defo rotation there.

 

EDIT:now tornado warned.

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Nice mothership style cell on the Fort stockton cell

 

post-16960-0-81046800-1430787901_thumb.p

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From last night's activity of 6 reported T's. Given timing and track, it would appear more likely a single active cell, with multiple touch downs.

Largest hail reported:

1.75"

 

2240 175 5 SE PALM CITY MARTIN FL 2713 8021 COCORAHS REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SE COVE ROAD AND US-1 SE FEDERAL HIGHWAY IN STUART. ALSO REPORTED ... ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS OF 60 MPH.

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