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Nick F

2015 Virtual Storm Chase Thread

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A couple of days of potential Thurs and Fri going by NAM. A fairly closed low looks set to establish itself in the Panhandle area - with associated moisture advection across N TX into SW KS.

Should be worth monitoring and the early season continues to present opportunities

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Today looks like a Great Set-Up and one I would love to be chasing in some of the best chase country in the USA, You could probably see a Tornado on a storm from 60 miles around here that's how good it is.

 

Anyway back to today, Nice Closed Low circulation over the 4 corners to start the day, this drifting towards the Panhandles later today, I can see a lot of similarities with 28th March 2007 on this Set-Up and that day had an absolute stunning Tornado in the Oklahoma Panhandle.

 

Nice Dryline today West of an Amarillo to Lubbock line and with 55-60f Dewpoints towards the southern part of the risk and 50-55f towards the northern part of the risk area this is ample moisture at this elevation to get magical things done. 2,000 to 3,000jkg of Cape on order and very nice 850mb winds which stay in the South East most of the day, Surface winds backing after 00z to the South East as well. 500mb winds are nicely from the South West at 45knts and decent bulk shear as well to play with. LCL Heights initially high lower to around 250mtrs, The only negatives today could be the lack of Cap which could allow too much crapvection to fire in the risk area and some models are showing this with a lowering of Cape between 00z and 03z. The LLJ Should crank up further between 00z and 03z though elongating the Hodo's for a more substantial Tornado Risk. Have a feeling we might see a 10% Tornado Box in later outlooks.

 

My Target would be Pampa today as that is far enough in front of the dryline but close enough to get on the best Supercell when they fire.

 

The Sounding Below

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=04&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=06&fhour=18&parameter=ZLCLM&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y&sounding.x=430&sounding.y=403

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Going to sit in Clarendon, to the SE of Amarillo. Moisture in Nern Texas is coming from SE, with dewpoints closer to 60F here, plus good overlay of LL shear indicated by NAM and storms coming off the dryline will benefit from the uplift along Cap Rock too.

 

NAM dew points and CAPE for 00z Fri:

post-1052-0-95642600-1429191704_thumb.gipost-1052-0-69893600-1429191679_thumb.gi

 

0-1km and 0-3km helicity:

post-1052-0-15698100-1429191766_thumb.gipost-1052-0-38096800-1429191801_thumb.gi

 

Only concern, is early convection going on now in the area, which may hinder potential later by turning over the atmosphere and creating too much cloud.

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And said crud takes me a tad further South than you guys to try to latch on to initiation in what I hope will be cleaner air just east of the DL in:

Plainview, TX

A tornado or two is possible from 00Z

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hook now forming to the SW of Pampa. - tornado warned.

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White knuckle  storm chasing team just east of Amarillo

 

post-16960-0-65866200-1429217946_thumb.p

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I still think initiation imminent where I am in Plainview and these cells will have a slightly better environment to work with IMO

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some awesome cloud structures, I think Roger Hill and Dominator2 have the best chances at the mo...

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Looking like a count of 3 T's (so far) from last nights reports.

Largest hail report of the night:

2248 300 5 SSE MIAMI ROBERTS TX 3562 10059 HAIL AT LEAST 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER ON FM 1268. (AMA)

Edited by Dorsetbred

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Looking like a count of 6 T's (so far) from last nights reports.

Largest hail report of the night:

2.5"

0040 250 ANGLETON BRAZORIA TX 2917 9543 EGG TO TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL IN ANGLETON. (HGX)

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Only a 5% tor risk tonight but given the near easterly surface winds on the KS/NE line id be sitting there and looking for the odd deviant motion from 20Z

Longer term and we're getting into mid range for the first NWx tour and also a potential chase for me.

Given the last few weeks id say the odds were good for a couple of outbreak set-ups at some point in May.

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Looking like a count of 4T's (so far) from last nights reports.

Largest hail report of the night:

2.75"

2251 275 4 N MOUNTAIN PARK KIOWA OK 3476 9895 SPOTTERS ESTIMATED BASEBALL SIZED HAIL.

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Too far North last night and the DL in OK was the best play.

Tonight sees super cells form in the E AR area moving NE and the risk of a tor or two increasing as a stout LLJ cranks into the region.

Topography about the worst it can be but virtually I'd be in Hope, AR near the I30

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Neil

 

Take a look at Google Earth, Eastern Arkansas from Little Rock and Pine Bluff eastwards to the Mississippi Delta have some of the most beautiful chase country in the USA Which rivals parts of Illinois and the Texas Panhandle, flat rice fields for a few hundred miles in a certain area around Stuttgart. Most people slag Arkansas for chasing but if you know where to chase it can be great.

 

Btw had a message from Tony Gilbert that you might be teaming up with him, lets hope for an active pattern to continue in May.

 

Best

 

Paul

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Neil

 

Take a look at Google Earth, Eastern Arkansas from Little Rock and Pine Bluff eastwards to the Mississippi Delta have some of the most beautiful chase country in the USA Which rivals parts of Illinois and the Texas Panhandle, flat rice fields for a few hundred miles in a certain area around Stuttgart. Most people slag Arkansas for chasing but if you know where to chase it can be great.

 

Btw had a message from Tony Gilbert that you might be teaming up with him, lets hope for an active pattern to continue in May.

 

Best

 

Paul

Yes I agree - East in a line through LZK is excellent, but West to the OK border is trees and hills as you know. I chased this terrain on 10th May 2008 and the first I knew that a tornado had passed a few miles to our South was when we hit large trees in the road near Hot Springs.

Not been East of the river but I hear it's fairly flat and open - so long as you can cross the river that is!

Yes I am excited about teaming up with Tony but the pattern and timings have to sync.

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Last nights report suggest 4 T's.

Largest hail reported was:

2.75"

0005 275 MONTGOMERY GRANT LA 3166 9289 SHERIFF DEPUTY REPORTED BROKEN GLASS WINDOW IN VEHICLE DUE TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. 

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If ECM is to believed today there is a risk of a severe end event in the southern plains this Friday. Caveats of course and GFS pushes the axis through faster but one to watch. We and I have several potential evenings of storms until then.

Here's hoping the now active season continues (for chasing purposes not those affected of course)

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Looking at Weds evening for the first real high-shear set-up. 0-6km vertical profiles of up to 60kn as a very stout upper jet pushes across the southern plains over an unstable environment.

May see an upgrade to MDT in later outlooks.

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Yep, Wednesday's potential suggests a chance of one or two tornadic supercells across north central Texas and SW/Sern Oklahoma. The best risk area seems to have shifted further west somewhat.  Cold front sinking south over Colorado and Kansas looks to stall out as a W to E warm front over NW Texas/Panhandle and Oklahoma, but my attention's drawn to the area west of DFW - where moisture/CAPE looks highest and also wind shear looks maxed. Impressive veering wind profiles tomorrow evening, with winds from the SE at the surface while winds at 500mb are westerly (though not particularly strong), which will make storms rotate nicely.

 

NAM 00z Thurs CAPE and DPs

post-1052-0-49802900-1429603893_thumb.gipost-1052-0-39786500-1429603914_thumb.gi

 

500mb winds (not that strong, so slow storm motion)

post-1052-0-57846200-1429604002_thumb.gi

 

10m winds and significant tornado:

post-1052-0-09137700-1429604085_thumb.gi

 

SLP and precip:

post-1052-0-64339000-1429604186_thumb.gi

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Still going to target west of DFW metro area, probably as far west as Guthrie to Paducah in Texas. Interested in getting in the general area where the triple point will be later (frontal boundary and dryline intersection) where rotating storms will have better chance of producing a tornado:

 

post-1052-0-31285900-1429697549_thumb.jppost-1052-0-66970200-1429697577_thumb.jp

 

Day 1 outlook from SPC: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

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enhanced_zpskog6w1z2.gif

 

 

Looks like the new enhanced warnings are coming into play for later in the week severe thunderstorms too.

Edited by matty40s

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I think today highlights the movement of chasers to new platforms.

A couple of years ago, ChaserTV was the place, map based, not only many, many chasers, but overlays of the risk areas.

Severe studios was also well populated, although you had to choose chasers and then hope they stayed with the flow.

TVN appeared last year I think, by far the most chasers now, again, map based, so you can flick between cells and chasers. 

There is no definitive chaser platform, maybe the money isn't there and the hosts are not allowed to use the NOAA warnings - I think the chaser tv is poorer for it, as locals can see when they are threatened too. 

 

anyhow, hopeful of a good night tonight.

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ben macmillan right in the middle of it

 

poor herd of cows about to get hit...

Edited by matty40s

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