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Nick F

2015 Virtual Storm Chase Thread

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Finally looks the weather is beginning to liven up across the Plains, after a rather late start this Spring, given the dominance of cold and dry arctic airmasses that have pushed right down to the Gulf for much of the last few months preventing warmth and moisture from moving north.

 

A slight risk for later across Ern Oklahoma, NW Arkansas and SW/central Missouri. NE Oklahoma - SW Missouri looks the sweet spot. Large hail the main threat today

 

SBCAPE and SLP/precip 00z Weds

 

post-1052-0-21558500-1427193917_thumb.gipost-1052-0-59659200-1427193964_thumb.gi

 

DL and LL shear + helicity 00z Weds

 

post-1052-0-48889500-1427193895_thumb.pnpost-1052-0-01993700-1427193938_thumb.pn

 

Day 1 outlook: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

Enhanced Risk of severe weather over Oklahoma tomorrow, some big hailer (2 inches+) indicated.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

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Good call Nick and at last we're up and running.

Sweet spot could be as it often is right on or just North of the WF with the greatest directional shear overcoming the modest CAPE.

If I was to pin a map for a tornado or two I'd be in Carthage, MO for about 20.30 UT

I see latest vis has a Cu field developing already.

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SPC 13z update brings a MODERATE risk of severe storms across N/NE Oklahoma, far SE Missouri and far NW Arkansas, the upgrade due to the 45% hatched area for hail - so some very large hail possible:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

With regards to a target area, the most obvious target would be north and NE of Oklahoma City - where cap will be weakest, forcing and moisture/CAPE is forecast to be highest as flow converges ahead of cold front surging S and SE from Kansas - however, any supercells here may not stay discrete long before the cold front undercuts and/or storms line out into a squall as the front moves S and SE. Second option is to play with the dryline arriving just west of the I-35 in Oklahoma before it stalls and is then overcome by the cold front surging south. Cap will be stronger along the dryline, so more risky here - though latest HRRR run suggests storms breaking out along or just west of the I-35 in central Oklahoma around 22z UTC (4pm CDT):

 

post-1052-0-41876800-1427296008_thumb.gipost-1052-0-68672600-1427296026_thumb.gi

 

With this in mind, going to head to Guthrie, just north of OKC on the I-35. Keeping in mind that more discrete supercells, may form on the dryline which looks to arrive just to the W and SW of OKC this evening and this area will be just NE of the low over Red River valley - so wind shear should be sufficient for tornado potential. However, will also need to be within reach of northern and NE Oklahoma, as mentioned, destabilisation looks more likely north and northeast of OKC. There is concerns, though, that the surging cold front could quickly undercut supercells before the mesocyclone gets chance to form tornadic circulations, or that supercells will not stay discrete for long before merging into the cold front squall.

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Don't know if this is the right thread but over in America there are a few tornado warnings out currently

 

live storm chasers are about there,just east of Tulsa i am viewing @ the mo(look for josh napper)

 

https://tvnweather.com/live/

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Last reports suggesting 4 / 5 tornado sightings last night. It was like bee's around a honey pot on the chaser cams..

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I was watching the live stream on tvn and live feed from fox 23 of the tornado going through Moore OK. Very dramatic. There was 3 more tornados seen in Tulsa OK

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A few videos of the tornadoes that dropped over Oklahoma yesterday:

 

Sand Springs/Tulsa in NE Oklahoma:

 

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=959475910738725

 

Moore, near Oklahoma City:

 

 

(Warning - bad language!) https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=881463161918637

 

SPC storm reports: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

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What is it with Moore and tornadoes?!

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What is it with Moore and tornadoes?!

 

Place is doomed, devastating EF5 tornadoes in May 1999 and May 2013.

 

Map below shows tornado tracks between 1890-2013 in Oklahoma City metro area, note most of the violent tornadoes EF4/5 were south side of city metro area (where Moore is)

 

post-1052-0-03239300-1427363382_thumb.pn

 

Interesting stats with regards to tornadoes in the OKC area since 1890:

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-okc

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SPC 13z update brings a MODERATE risk of severe storms across N/NE Oklahoma, far SE Missouri and far NW Arkansas, the upgrade due to the 45% hatched area for hail - so some very large hail possible:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

With regards to a target area, the most obvious target would be north and NE of Oklahoma City - where cap will be weakest, forcing and moisture/CAPE is forecast to be highest as flow converges ahead of cold front surging S and SE from Kansas - however, any supercells here may not stay discrete long before the cold front undercuts and/or storms line out into a squall as the front moves S and SE. Second option is to play with the dryline arriving just west of the I-35 in Oklahoma before it stalls and is then overcome by the cold front surging south. Cap will be stronger along the dryline, so more risky here - though latest HRRR run suggests storms breaking out along or just west of the I-35 in central Oklahoma around 22z UTC (4pm CDT):

 

attachicon.gifhrrrFLT_prec_radar_010.gifattachicon.gifhrrrFLT_con_sbcape_010.gif

 

With this in mind, going to head to Guthrie, just north of OKC on the I-35. Keeping in mind that more discrete supercells, may form on the dryline which looks to arrive just to the W and SW of OKC this evening and this area will be just NE of the low over Red River valley - so wind shear should be sufficient for tornado potential. However, will also need to be within reach of northern and NE Oklahoma, as mentioned, destabilisation looks more likely north and northeast of OKC. There is concerns, though, that the surging cold front could quickly undercut supercells before the mesocyclone gets chance to form tornadic circulations, or that supercells will not stay discrete for long before merging into the cold front squall.

Nice positioning, spot on Nick.

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Place is doomed, devastating EF5 tornadoes in May 1999 and May 2013.

 

Map below shows tornado tracks between 1890-2013 in Oklahoma City metro area, note most of the violent tornadoes EF4/5 were south side of city metro area (where Moore is)

 

attachicon.giftornadotrackOKC1880-2013.png

 

Interesting stats with regards to tornadoes in the OKC area since 1890:

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-okc

 

And yet Norman just to the south seems to always come out relatively unscathed. One of those weird meteorological quirks I guess.

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Enhanced risk especially S MO this evening as decent moisture returns yet again.

A few tors possible.

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Good luck in the trees....................Chainsaw ordered!

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Good luck in the trees....................Chainsaw ordered!

You taking one with you this year Paul? I have a feeling log cabin country is going to festure this season

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Tornado risk has now increased to 10% for NE OK SE KS and SW MO

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Targeting Joplin in far SW corner of Missouri, convergence area just ahead of cold front draped across southern half of MO.

post-1052-0-78934000-1428007249_thumb.gi

Widespread cu field across Missouri and the cap's breaking just west of Lebanon in south central MO on the I-44.

post-1052-0-47593900-1428007492_thumb.gi

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Tornado warning in Lebanon now

 

been watching David baxter III for the past hour situated in Frankfort,Kentucky

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I'd be sitting patiently in Carthage again or maybe edging a bit NW into far SE KS.
Latest surface obs show quite a backed surface flow in this area and RACY has CIN dropping away shortly so expect rapid development here next hour.
I think the tor risk as indicated earlier is a bit more enhanced that SPC forecast (IMO).

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Next raised risk on Weds evening.

NAM progs some decent instability with potential loaded gun set up should the cap erode.

Overlaying EHI and SRH I'm going to head for EC KS

Incidentally although I have no planned tour this year I will probably go out for a high risk week at short notice and have kept the middle two weeks of May fairly quiet work wise for that purpose. If anyone fancies joining me should the conditions prove favourable you're more than welcome.

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Nice set-up this week as I alluded too in the wrong thread 3 days ago (Lol Ooops)

 

Abundant Cape from the transportation of Gulf rich moisture into the Plains States, a very stout EML Over the next 2 days so this is why the SPC Are not really having any of the storm risks for Monday and Tuesday, yes the colours are pretty on the Cape charts and the Soundings are explosive but with no trigger it just goes unused. If and its a big if a storm can go up today or tomorrow it would be an amazing sight to behold but still the focus is on Wednesday and Thursday for this thread.

 

My early target for Wednesday would be the ICT Area and the counties that surround it, most probably Kingman or Sedgewick County which have good road options, expecting the Triple point to be somewhere near to Wichita and would jump on any dryline storm that heads towards that LP, Anywhere East or North East and we should be rocking and rolling for a long tracked Supercell and possible strong to violent Tornado. A warm front will be aligned to the East North East from the Low Pressure off towards NE Kansas and Missouri and this will be the focus for Thursdays action with the fabled Iowa, Illinois Warm Front play, more on that tomorrow.

 

Should be some amazing streams out and about though on Tvn.

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Interesting. RAP develops a single discrete supercell Wichita Falls from 21Z.

Could be the lone monster you alluded to Paul.

And agree Weds is the first of two big days in KS then MO/IL

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Very stout cap today looks like limiting severe storm development, despite some 4000 j/kg CAPE stretching acoss Oklahoma into SE Kansas.

 

Tomorrow, hopefully better chance for cap erosion, as height falls from the wes thave more impact. Liking the I-35 between Witchita and Topeka in Kansas, roughly near warm front tomorrow early evening, winds should be backed SSE or SEly here, 3000 j/kg CAPE, a 500mb speed max aloft and storms that form along the warm front may turn into right movers and have highest potential to be tornadic. All the ingredients are looking good atm:

 

post-1052-0-03783900-1428447165_thumb.gi

 

post-1052-0-13148400-1428447211_thumb.gi

post-1052-0-21198500-1428447243_thumb.gi

post-1052-0-80795800-1428447259_thumb.gi

post-1052-0-19313600-1428447289_thumb.gi

post-1052-0-76631700-1428447350_thumb.gi

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