April 2015 CET Forecasts

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a minimum today of 1.3C and maxima likely to hit about 16C, the CET should drop back to 9.4C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

9.4C to the 21st (9.9)

9.5C to the 22nd (9.9)

9.5C to the 23rd (10.4)

9.5C to the 24th (10.0)

9.6C to the 25th (10.5)

9.5C to the 26th (6.6)

9.4C to the 27th (7.0)

9.3C to the 28th (7.0)

9.2C to the 29th (7.5)

 

Here's the CET prediction based on previous CET data.

 

 

While the blue (coldest 5%) and red (warmest 5%) lines suggest a finishing range between 10.3C and 8.2C, the latest GFS forecast would give a finish between 9.0C and 9.5C before corrections, so 8.5 to 9.5C after corrections.

[Summer Sun]

9.4c to the 20th

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

9.5c to the 21st

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 4.0C, while maxima should reach the high 16s, so remaining on 9.5C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

9.5C to the 23rd (10.2)

9.5C to the 24th (10.0)

9.6C to the 25th (11.5)

9.6C to the 26th (9.0)

9.4C to the 27th (4.0)

9.2C to the 28th (5.3)

9.1C to the 29th (5.7)

9.0C to the 30th (3.9)

 

An exceptionally cold final 4 days forecast brings the likely finishing range before corrections down to 8.7C to 9.2C, and 8.3C to 9.2C after corrections.

Those final 4 days (4.7C average), if forecast accurately, would be the coldest since 1857 (4.3C average).

 

[Summer Sun]

9.5c to the 22nd

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 

Minimum today of 4.0C, while maxima should reach the high 16s, so remaining on 9.5C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

9.5C to the 23rd (10.2)

9.5C to the 24th (10.0)

9.6C to the 25th (11.5)

9.6C to the 26th (9.0)

9.4C to the 27th (4.0)

9.2C to the 28th (5.3)

9.1C to the 29th (5.7)

9.0C to the 30th (3.9)

 

An exceptionally cold final 4 days forecast brings the likely finishing range before corrections down to 8.7C to 9.2C, and 8.3C to 9.2C after corrections.

Those final 4 days (4.7C average), if forecast accurately, would be the coldest since 1857 (4.3C average).

 

 

A massive fall of 0.6 C within 5 days at the back end of the month.  I presume March 2013 holds the record for biggest drop near month end? 

 

Looking back on that month's competition page.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75958-march-2013-cet-201213-cet-competition/page-13

 

Reef wrote on March 23:  "Hadley is still 3.6C to the 22nd."

 

The month finished on 2.7C   So it dropped by 0.9C in the last 9 days.

 

April 2015 is proving to be another strong contender.

Edited April 24, 2015 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Summer Sun]

9.6c to the 23rd

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 5.0C, while maxima look like reaching the high 16s, so remaining on 9.6C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

9.7C to the 25th (10.5)

9.6C to the 26th (8.5)

9.5C to the 27th (5.0)

9.3C to the 28th (6.2)

9.2C to the 29th (6.5)

9.2C to the 30th (8.0)

 

The GFS has swung away from it's extremely cold end to the month to a moderately cold end. A likely finish of between 9.0C and 9.4C before corrections, and 8.6C to 9.4C after corrections.

 

 

A massive fall of 0.6 C within 5 days at the back end of the month.  I presume March 2013 holds the record for biggest drop near month end? 

 

Looking back on that month's competition page.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75958-march-2013-cet-201213-cet-competition/page-13

 

Reef wrote on March 23:  "Hadley is still 3.6C to the 22nd."

 

The month finished on 2.7C   So it dropped by 0.9C in the last 9 days.

 

April 2015 is proving to be another strong contender.

 

 

Doesn't look like any records will be broken now anyway. Although, the GFS (at a fairly unreliable timeframe) has the first 3 days of May averaging around the low 6s. That's over 4C below the 81-10 average, and would require the rest of the month to average at least 12.2C just to reach the 81-10 monthly average of 11.7C.

[Summer Sun]

9.6c to the 24th

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

CET has been very static this past week or so, but from tomorrow will be on a downward climb and there is still an outside chance we could see a finish in the high 8's, but probably require a downward correction for this to happen.

 

Will be interesting to see how much of a drop we see over the next 5 days, possibly no drop on tomorrow's update, but a 0.1 degree drop each day thereafter which would see a landing finish of 9.1 or 9.2 degrees thereabouts. May at this range looks like starting on a significantly below average note mind...

[DAVID SNOW]

0.2 downward correction this month(imo)

[Summer Sun]

9.7c to the 25th

 

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

9.6c to the 26th

 

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 0.2C, while maxima look like reaching the low 11s, so a drop back to 9.5C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

9.4C to the 28th (6.3)

9.3C to the 29th (6.6)

9.2C to the 30th (7.7)

 

A finish in the range of 9.1C to 9.3C before corrections, 8.7C to 9.3C after corrections.

[Summer Sun]

9.5c to the 27th

 

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

9.4c to the 28th

 

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

9.4c to the 29th

 

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

9.36C is the value up to the 29th. The minimum today is 3.9C, while maxima look like hitting the mid to high 12s, so we're almost certain to be on 9.3C to finish before corrections. After corrections, 8.9C to 9.3C.

[reef]

Hadley confirmed as 9.0C

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2015

 

A 0.3C downward correction this month.

[Wynn D Woo]

Hadley confirmed as 9.0C

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2015

 

A 0.3C downward correction this month.

Darn 0.1C off...

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the April CET compared to historical averages and extremes.

 

 

Below are the daily CET corrections for this April

 

[J10]

Results to follow over the weekend

[J10]

Scores now calculated.

 

Monthly - 5 were spot on this month at 9.0c

CongletonHeat,  Dancerwithwings,  Costa Del Fal,  Stationary Front and rjbw

 

Seasonal (Spring) -  A largely new Top 3.

Mark Bayley Thunderbolt_  and CongletonHeat

 

Annual  - A slightly rejigged top 3 with the 1-2-3 being

coldest winter, Weather-history and DiagonalRedLine

 

With previous leader Weather26 now in 8th after only guessing 0.8c out, but this shows how tight it is at the top.

 

Apr 2015 CET.xls

Apr 2015 CET.pdf

Edited May 3, 2015 by J10

[damianslaw]

It had registered how close I was going to be to the final figure. Preety pleased with my guess, the same difference as March. Despite a predominantly settled very sunny and very dry April, the CET ended up nothing particularly special. Yes comfortably above average, but certainly not well above. Only 0.5 degree above rolling 81-10 average. Minima dented the CET this month.

[Norrance]

Thanks again to J10 for all the hard work in putting this together.