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April 2015 CET Forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

April CET statistics and trivia

19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775)
16.3 ... warmest daily mean 1-15 April (15th, 1945)

11.8 ... warmest April (2011)
11.2 ... 2nd warmest April (2007)
10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865)
10.5 ... 4th warmest April (1943)

10.4 ... 5th warmest April (1798)

10.3 ... 6th warmest Aprils (tied 1893, 1987)

10.2 ... CET for 2014 (tied 8th with 1794, 1796, 1944)

10.1 ... 12th warmest Aprils (1783, 1869, 1945)

10.0 ... 15th warmest Aprils (seven tied, most recent was 2009)

9.2 ... average for 2001-14
9.0 ... average for 14 yrs 1862-1875 (surprise?)

8.5 ... average for 1981-2010
8.1 ... average for 1971-2000 (and 20th century 1901-2000) (also 1971-2000)
8.0 ... average for 19th century 1801-1900

7.9 ... average for all data 1659-2014, also 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800

7.5 ... 2013 CET
7.3 ... average for 1659-1700

5.8 ... 18th coldest (tied) 1986 (coldest of past half century)
5.4 ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799
5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809
4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837)

-0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772)
-0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (2nd, 1917 and 3rd, 1799)

_________________________________________________________________

 

Enter your forecast for APRIL 2015 by the penalty-free deadline of 00:00 1st of April (end of 31st March in other words) or take a penalty during the first three days of April for a late entry.

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
  • Like 3
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Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

8.2 please.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Bang on average as per the recent trend so 8.5C.

 

First half probably cooler than average as we finally see northern blocking really take hold but i do expect a warm end to the month as spring finally takes hold.

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

12c  :(  Last sub 5C April in 1837.  Last sub 6C April in 1986.  Last sub 7C April in 1989.  Last sub 7.5C April in 2012.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
  • Like 6
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Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

9.8 please,very pleasant

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Below is the April CET from 1659-2014 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

Nnmx8mB.png

 

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 5.6 and 6.8C. The average April following a March within that range is 8.2C.

 

The linear trend for the whole record is +0.26C per century. Following this trend gives an April CET of 8.4C.

The linear trend since 1850 is +0.40C per century. Following this trend gives an April CET of 8.5C.

The linear trend since 1950 is +1.93C per century. Following this trend gives an April CET of 8.9C.

The linear trend over the last 50 years is +4.04C per century. Following this trend gives an April CET of 9.3C.

The linear trend over the last 30 years is +5.24C per century. Following this trend gives an April CET of 9.5C.

 

The 30 year average is currently at 8.7C for just the 2nd time, the other occassion being 2011 (1982-2011). A CET of 9.8C or higher will take the 30 year average to 8.8C for the first time on record.

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Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

8.9c

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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

8.3c please

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

8.7C, a near normal April I think as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

9.1C thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Mines a 9c for April.... Hope to see a day or two topping out at 19c with plenty of Mr Sky Blue :)

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Against everyone else I'll go for 10.0C :)

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Do kinda feel it will be an April empty of any particularly cold weather (as much as I would love to see a repeat of April 2008's snowy Northerly) - CET guess: 9.2*C.

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

8.4 for me please

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