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Roger J Smith

April 2015 CET Forecasts

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April CET statistics and trivia

19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775)
16.3 ... warmest daily mean 1-15 April (15th, 1945)

11.8 ... warmest April (2011)
11.2 ... 2nd warmest April (2007)
10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865)
10.5 ... 4th warmest April (1943)

10.4 ... 5th warmest April (1798)

10.3 ... 6th warmest Aprils (tied 1893, 1987)

10.2 ... CET for 2014 (tied 8th with 1794, 1796, 1944)

10.1 ... 12th warmest Aprils (1783, 1869, 1945)

10.0 ... 15th warmest Aprils (seven tied, most recent was 2009)

9.2 ... average for 2001-14
9.0 ... average for 14 yrs 1862-1875 (surprise?)

8.5 ... average for 1981-2010
8.1 ... average for 1971-2000 (and 20th century 1901-2000) (also 1971-2000)
8.0 ... average for 19th century 1801-1900

7.9 ... average for all data 1659-2014, also 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800

7.5 ... 2013 CET
7.3 ... average for 1659-1700

5.8 ... 18th coldest (tied) 1986 (coldest of past half century)
5.4 ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799
5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809
4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837)

-0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772)
-0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (2nd, 1917 and 3rd, 1799)

_________________________________________________________________

 

Enter your forecast for APRIL 2015 by the penalty-free deadline of 00:00 1st of April (end of 31st March in other words) or take a penalty during the first three days of April for a late entry.

 

 

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8.2 please.

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Bang on average as per the recent trend so 8.5C.

 

First half probably cooler than average as we finally see northern blocking really take hold but i do expect a warm end to the month as spring finally takes hold.

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8.2C for me please as we are entering Bank Holiday season at the start of this month so unsettled at the start but settling down mid month.

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12c  :(  Last sub 5C April in 1837.  Last sub 6C April in 1986.  Last sub 7C April in 1989.  Last sub 7.5C April in 2012.

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Below is the April CET from 1659-2014 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

Nnmx8mB.png

 

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 5.6 and 6.8C. The average April following a March within that range is 8.2C.

 

The linear trend for the whole record is +0.26C per century. Following this trend gives an April CET of 8.4C.

The linear trend since 1850 is +0.40C per century. Following this trend gives an April CET of 8.5C.

The linear trend since 1950 is +1.93C per century. Following this trend gives an April CET of 8.9C.

The linear trend over the last 50 years is +4.04C per century. Following this trend gives an April CET of 9.3C.

The linear trend over the last 30 years is +5.24C per century. Following this trend gives an April CET of 9.5C.

 

The 30 year average is currently at 8.7C for just the 2nd time, the other occassion being 2011 (1982-2011). A CET of 9.8C or higher will take the 30 year average to 8.8C for the first time on record.

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8.7, nothing too special. Bit of this and a bit of that. Vaguely warm trend. Douse me with ice cold water towards the end so I remember to post May.

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Mines a 9c for April.... Hope to see a day or two topping out at 19c with plenty of Mr Sky Blue :)

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Do kinda feel it will be an April empty of any particularly cold weather (as much as I would love to see a repeat of April 2008's snowy Northerly) - CET guess: 9.2*C.

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I suspect we're in for a continuation of our succession of months with a typical mix so am going for near average - let's say 8.4.

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