Is 2015 to be the year the Naturals flipped?

[Gray-Wolf]

Even though we had record global temps and a full year of PDO positive folk are still not warming ( LOL) to the notion that the negative naturals are now flipping positive?

 

Have you seen enough to call it or do you think we will see atmospheric temps fall back to the new 2,000's base line?

[seabreeze86]

Afraid not Gray-wolf i will be staying on the fence for the time being. I just do not think we have enough understanding of how the climate works and our misconception that humans control everything on the planet will keep me neutral/against Man made Global warming.

 

The next solar cycle will be a great test for both sides of the argument especially if it turns out to be as weak as expected. 

[Gray-Wolf]

I do not think you need engage in the AGW debate at all to have an opinion as to whether you see signs that the worlds 'natural' drivers are changing from a predominantly negative draw on global temps to ones augmenting warming?

 

We have seen what the latest set of natural drivers did to the rate of change of atmospheric warming ( slowed it down over sampled areas) so has the change of the last 18 months ( elevated ocean temps 'pumping up' global atmospheric temps resulting in the record warm 2014) signalled that the natural drivers are now nudging positive?

 

To me the change back to positive is something I have been fearing for a while now? both because of our inactivity, with regards mitigation, and the changes we have seen globally over the period that negative naturals ruled ( if this can happen under 'draw down' temp set ups what the hell will we see with the next round of naturals??? esp. as we have merely pumped up the human forcing over that 15 odd years).

 

In a past world negative phases cancelled out positive phases ( and vice versa) but we have seen temps continue to rise over a number of different 'flavours' of drivers and collaborations of naturals so what now happens when we enter this 'next' phase of natural positives??? 

 

Sea ice waited until the middle of the last 'cold phase' to give us the first 'crash' in sea ice levels ( 07') and then, even deeper into the phase, 2012 dropped the record by another near 20% at ice min. What ought we to expect when the world is in a natural 'warming' phase ( the last one took care of up to 70% of the then volume of Arctic Sea ice)

 

2012 also showed us the melt across all of Greenland ( don't be fooled by the wrong reporting saying this was a 160 yr cycle... it is not as the one prior to the Krakatoa influenced one was in the 1100's and prehistoric prior to that one!!) so what will we see once the planet is back under 'natural warming forcings'?

 

The Amazon has had regions in " 1 in a hundred year drought " throughout the period of natural negatives so what do we expect there ( I think the Brazilian Sector was a net positive for CO2 last year..... not good)?

 

Antarctica fared better with winds and melt keeping sea ice elevated but the past few months saw it crash back to 'average figures' so what would a return to positive naturals mean there ( remember Larsen B during the last 'warm phase? well the last of the Larsens ('C') is now primed for collapse and with it the buttress holding back the last of the land ice on the N peninsula)?

[seabreeze86]

Sorry Gray-Wolf misread the title, But my opinion on the natural drivers remains the same as above, we do not understand enough. Plus we are just starting to understand the impact the stratosphere and how space weather can impact earth.

 

The climate and indeed out planet is an amazing thing the more we learn about it the more we realise how much more there is to learn.

[Thundery wintry showers]

To my mind, the evidence suggests that there has been a fairly consistent human-induced warming of the mean global temperature since the mid-1970s, of about 0.15C per decade, and that natural forcings added to the warming up until the exceptional El Nino of 1998, and have offset the warming since then, resulting in the levelling off of the temperature trend.  The natural "corrections" have probably brought the mean rate of warming over 1975-2014 in line with what we'd expect from the anthropogenic component.  I think that there's a good chance that by the end of the decade the trend line will end up showing a resumption of the warming trend, starting around 2014-15, but not a certainty.

 

Chances are that natural variability will continue to fluctuate either side of the mean and so we'll get some periods with little or no warming and others where the mean global temperature jumps by a couple of tenths of a degree.  But it is hard to say how natural forcings will react to a progressively warmer global climate- we are likely to get both positive and negative feedbacks and this is a key area where there is a lot more to learn.

Edited March 11, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers

[knocker]

Afraid not Gray-wolf i will be staying on the fence for the time being. I just do not think we have enough understanding of how the climate works and our misconception that humans control everything on the planet will keep me neutral/against Man made Global warming.

 

The next solar cycle will be a great test for both sides of the argument especially if it turns out to be as weak as expected. 

 

I wasn't aware that that particular misconception was shared by climate scientists, or indeed those of us who believe in the consensus of scientific knowledge to date. I believe in the Greenhouse Effect, the science of which has been established for many years, and that without doubt humans are interfering with the natural carbon cycle. That doesn't mean that I refute other natural influences.

Edited March 11, 2015 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

Accepting our limitations, in not having gained a complete understanding of our planets climate, how can we hope to be 100% sure of the impacts of our tinkering with the planets carbon cycle Knocks?

 

I believe all we can do is look to past periods with a similar sized carbon cycle ( difficult as it keeps on changing ) to figure what such 'levels' will, over time, bring to us? The hard bit is the rapid speed with which we have forced the cycle? I have never come across any past period where greenhouse forcing was added into climate with such speed? 

 

To me I believe we should all already know where we are headed ( the past shows us what thousands of years of such GHG forcings bring us) but none of us can know just how we will get there or even whether such rapid forcing brings on 'unique' climatic responses?

Edited March 11, 2015 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

Agreed GW. The post by TWS summed it up very well.

[stewfox]

Even though we had record global temps and a full year of PDO positive folk are still not warming ( LOL) to the notion that the negative naturals are now flipping positive?

 

Have you seen enough to call it or do you think we will see atmospheric temps fall back to the new 2,000's base line?

 

I think we need another 30 years. Too much mist at present. I appreciate many folk are impatient  but with only tiny changes (globally) taking place its far too early to understand mans influence on climate.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think we need another 30 years. Too much mist at present. I appreciate many folk are impatient  but with only tiny changes (globally) taking place its far too early to understand mans influence on climate.

 

But I know you are aware of the myriad of other areas that show our influence, besides simply looking at short term trends in surface air temperatures.

[stewfox]

But I know you are aware of the myriad of other areas that show our influence, besides simply looking at short term trends in surface air temperatures.

 

I'm all for charging for plastic bags but the only real difference between a skeptic and a 'believer' is the amount of mans influence.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'm all for charging for plastic bags but the only real difference between a skeptic and a 'believer' is the amount of mans influence.

 

You refer to tiny changes in your previous post. What about other factors that show continued, sustained warming and that we're the cause? What about warming oceans, sea level rise, global ice loss? What about recorded increases in downwelling longwave radiation, reductions in outgoing longwave radiation (at the common GhG wavelengths), cooling stratosphere, nights warming faster than days, etc. What's there to say about all those areas that demonstrate an enhanced greenhouse effect?

 

What would you say are the likely value ranges of our influence in temperature over the last 50 years, as a percentage value?

[Gray-Wolf]

You see Stew if you knew you were looking at a lit fuse you would not need to watch it for long before acting. The difference must be that you understand the 'changes' ( i.e. the 'fuse')is not connected to impacts of any real consequence to us all?

 

I know you feel my concerns extreme but even if a moderate version of them lay at the end of the 'fuse' i think most folk would want to 'act' and not watch the fuse a while longer...... just in case.....?

Edited March 15, 2015 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Knocks posts that this was a record warm global winter? Not a bad start for a 'flip' year?

[knocker]

The PDO index is currently near its highest level in more than a century

 

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Gray-Wolf]

The PDO index is currently near its highest level in more than a century

 

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

We seem to have a group of folk intent on denying that the PDO has now shifted positive so I'd like them to explain 'why now' for such high values if this is just an interphase 'moment' we are seeing?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

March came out at 2.0 so the highest March since that of 98'? With long range forecasts of the SSt's looking to keep the 'triple R' in place throughout the year it looks like PDO+ve will also run throughout the rest of the year along with El nino ??? What would this suggest is happening to the IPO? Well if Nino is in charge ( suppressing trades etc) then we will continue to see it 'positive' ( warm sea surface) and so prop up global temps.

[Snowyowl9]

Man made what a friggin joke,natural yes.

Russian Scientists say period of global cooling ahead due to changes in the sun

This article is also biased also with global cooling,its just the sun.

Read more: Russian Scientists say period of global cooling ahead due to changes in the sun

Theres a much bigger thing going on that nobody ever talks about and that is solar warming every planet in the solar system is warming as we`ve entered a different much more active region of space,and its much more complex than that.

[Gray-Wolf]

Man made what a friggin joke,natural yes.

 

 

Extreme claims need extreme evidence and you fetch us David Ike............. the rest can make their own minds up!

[Gray-Wolf]

The kelvin wave is now surfacing off america and it looks like we are to be treated to a week of strong westerlies? Will the walker cell flip this time? Folk are talking of a strong or even 'super' Nino should the Cell flip. It also appears to me that if it flips then the IPO will go positive too meaning PDO and IPO pushing warming ( Nino aside). With Chinese pollution now falling off we can also expect less 'dimming' and so more energy getting to the surface. Couple this with any further albedo losses due to 'dark snow' and sea ice melt and it begins to look set for another warming 'surge' over the coming years?